Picking horses is an art. Or, rather, it should be an art. There are horseplayers that swear by Beyer figures, which are a relative measure of speed. Others look for "hot" barns, where trainers are on a hot streak with certain types of horses. Others handicap based on class, pace, lineage… so long as you don’t tell us you’re putting a hundy down because your first lay shares the name with the nag going off at 30-1. For almost any other method of choosing a winner, there’s a school of thought behind it. Oddjack contributor BG checks in on assignment to think outside the box – or rather, to maybe let the box do the thinking for us. After the jump, see BG’s experience with CompuTrak handicapping software. ASK AND YE SHALL RECEIVE A faithful reader we’ll call "Buzz Lightyear" sent us the following email, which piqued our curiosity:

On a trip to San Diego this last weekend, I went to Del Mar to watch the ponies run. In between races, I was reading the articles in The Daily Racing Form and saw one about handicapping software. Now I’ve read about teams of people in Hong Kong using custom software but I never knew that it was readily available to the laymen bettor.

The software in question is called CompuTrak, produced by Revelation Profits, which sounds like some sort of Christian pyramid scheme and certainly doesn’t have the ring of "legitimate software outfit." Even if some piece of software was downloading race data and making picks, it was just going to be some computer guy’s theories turned into code and badly rendered for Windows. Who knows if he’s any good at picking horses, or if his software even works? FAT HORSES RUN SLOWER The article Buzz sent us was from The Daily Racing Form, and has been pulled out from behind the subscriber’s door by Revelation Profits. Our level of skepticism was tempered when we read the byline of the article. Brad Free is the Southern California handicapper for The DRF, and is one of the most well respected names in the game. He writes:

(M)ost self-respecting horseplayers might be reluctant to use a program as fast and mechanical as CompuTrak. Chances are, the quick-and-easy process would provide ordinary results. But in a five-week study during the 2005 spring-summer meet at Hollywood Park, the results were anything but ordinary.

From late April through the middle of June, in a survey over 22 racing days, CompuTrak produced results that would be the envy of any flesh-and-blood handicapper. Using Daily Racing Form past performances, the program selected 54 winners from 168 races (32 percent) at an average win payoff of $7.30. A $2 win bet on each selection ($336 total) produced total return of $394.40, a $2.34 return on investment for each $2 bet.

OK, sounds interesting, not a big sample size though. Still, results don’t lie. So how is the software doing it? Pace? Class? Nope:

(T)he idea was to determine "whether an engineering approach would be useful for analyzing Thoroughbred horses." (Designer Rubin) Boxer’s intention was merely to publish a research paper. Marketing a software program was the farthest thing from his mind.

The paper – "Engineering Analysis of Thoroughbred Racing" – was not published in the trade publication for which Boxer originally intended. But he said the method worked… One premise of the program is the concept of "friction" between a horse and the ground it travels over, based, among other things, on the weight the horse is carrying. The program also considers energy reserves, rate of deceleration, and track variants.

So we’ve been asked to check out what is likely the only thoroughbred selection method out there that penalizes a horse that’s too much of a fat-ass? Is this not as dumb an idea as picking the horse that takes a dump before the gate closes because he’s now running lighter? YOU DON’T THINK WE’RE LETTING THIS GO WITHOUT A TEST DRIVE, DO YOU?Still, if Brad Free – the man who said, "Logical, creative handicapping that dares to be different affords bettors a reasonable chance to win." – is willing to not totally dismiss the method, we thought we could give it a shot. We downloaded the software, and actually paid to register it. The first set of past performances we purchased and downloaded were for Michigan’s Great Lakes Downs, which was running live last night. We pulled the data into the program and found that running the figures was a breeze. One click to process, another to pull up a quick list of the software’s best bets, or "CompuTrak Picks," for the card, and another to see more detailed information. Looking at the GLD card for last night, and simply placing two dollar win bets on the five horses (out of nine races) the software named as "CompuTrak Picks," would have generated two wins. Binalady cruised to victory in the first, paying $13 on the win, and Special Envoy in the fifth would have paid $6. Doing the math? Five picks times two dollars each = $10. Two wins for $19 is pretty damn good. Going a little deeper, had we placed two dollar exacta box bets ($4 each) on the top two recommendations for each of the seven races CompuTrak provided information? $34.40 on the first, $14 on the sixth, and $30.20 on the eighth. Three of seven exactas hit, two of seven winners. Doing the math, that’s plus $9 on the win bets, plus $50.60 on the exactas. By our fuzzy math, we’re pretty sure that adds up to $59.60 in pure profit. That’s astonishing. Especially considering we think we’re betting either on or against horses with a lower center of gravity than their competition. Obviously, that’s only seven races worth of information. Maybe we need a bigger sample size. TRUE BELIEVERS – PUT YOUR MONEY DOWN How about three more cards worth of selections? We’ll give you CompuTrak’s picks for Calder and Great Lakes Downs for Tuesday, and for beautiful Del Mar on Wednesday. Every "CompuTrak Pick," which is their best bet selection for certain races, and then a look at some longshots that might be worth a play based on the software’s odds line. No frills, just the race number and the post position number of the horses to make your betting easier. We’re not sure we believe in this "thoroughbred engineering" stuff as of yet, but we do believe in results. If the Great Lakes Downs results from last night can be more the rule than exception, this will be the best gambling tool we’ve bought since Super System 2. Let’s see the computer make us all some loot. Calder – Tuesday 1) The 5 is the CompuTrak Pick – although the 6 and 7 are real tight behind 2) No picks by CT – we like the seven-to-one 7 horse based on CT data 3) 2 is the CT Pick, we like the 8 here too 4) 2 is the CT Pick 5) 4 is the CT Pick, he’s also a morning line 10-1 shot. Get your money down 6) 1 is the CT Pick 7) 7 is the CT pick, although the 6 is a morning line 6-1 horse, and a good pick based on the data 6 & 8 are paired here by the CT Pick 9) 5 is the CT pick Great Lakes Downs – Tuesday Only four races of their nine are listed. 1) 3 is the CT Pick 5) 3 is the CT pick, 5 is real close and a 25-1 morning line longshot. We’ll have money on this one 6) 3 & 9 are tied together at the CT Pick. The 8 is close, and both the 9 and 8 are 25-1 morning line shots 7) 1 is the CT Pick Del Mar – Wednesday 1) 3 is the CT Pick, the 5 is closely valued but a better price holding a 6-1 morning line 2) No picks – although a real strong bet on the 3, who has a 15-1 morning line 3) 6 is the CT Pick, has a 12-1 morning line too. Solid longshot pick 4) 3 is the CT Pick, key this horse in first with the 1 & 2 in an exacta and/or trifecta wheel, they’re longshots with good CT numbers 5) No picks – the 1 is worth a play, and has a 15-1 morning line 6) 4 is the CT pick 7) 4 is the CT pick, also has a 20-1 morning line 10 is the CT pick, early price is 20-1 on this one too If these Del Mar picks hit at all, it could be a real profitable day at the track. We’ll keep our eyes on CompuTrak, and do what we can to give you some early info on some of the big races up through Breeders’ Cup Saturday. If you want to believe this "thoroughbred friction" style of handicapping is garbage, that’s up to you. We’re willing to give it a shot, and last night’s results really have us geeked. So take the picks above if you want them, bet big, win big, and don’t forget to tip your faithful Oddjack correspondents. We accept Visa, Mastercard… hell, we’ll run up your Sears card if you let us. CompuTrak Home [Revelation Profits] Brad Free’s DRF article [Revelation Profits] Brad Free’s quote above from Six Secrets of Successful Bettors [Amazon] Great Lakes Downs results, Monday July 25 [Equibase] Previously: Oddjack Expert: What the Hell Am I Betting On Here? [Oddjack] Previously: Primer: Pretending You’re Not A Rookie At The Track [Oddjack]