Resident Oddjack horse RZA, BG, fields a question from the befuddled readers begging for answers to their Saratoga horse needs. Bill G. writes in and asks this question:

While watching the races at Saratoga this weekend (Lost in the Fog is a truck, FYI), we noticed a betting oddity during the run up to the Travers. Roman Ruler and Bellamy Road were both tracking at 2-1, while Flower Alley sat at 3-1. In the exacta pool, however, the Roman Ruler-Bellamy Road exacta paid MORE than the Roman Ruler-Flower Alley exacta.

I’ve seen this type of skew before, but still don’t know the cause. Help?

BG:
It’s because every type of bet is paid out of a different betting pool – the win odds are the ones you see on the screen prominently displayed leading up to post time, but the exactas, trifectas, show pool, etc are all different pools entirely. Because every type of bet is paid out of a different betting pool, what you saw was a situation where the public was betting more heavily on the Roman Ruler/Flower Alley exacta than on the Roman Ruler/Bellamy Road exacta- and those bets don’t affect the win odds whatsoever.

At smaller tracks, on races with a much smaller handle (total amount bet on the race), some trainers and owners who have a horse they are trying to sneak into the winner’s circle at a big price use the exacta pools to effectively hide their bets. A $1K win bet on a Tuesday night race at Great Lakes Downs could drop a 10/1 horse well under 2/1. However, a 10/1 horse stays a 10/1 horse when the same $1K is bet using exacta wagering. You’ll rarely see a huge “skew” like this, but it’s always a good idea to look for anomalies in the betting patterns of exactas and trifectas just before post time. Sometimes you’ll find a horse a little overbet that you never even thought to plug into your own exotic wager.

Gambling Blues