Handicapping the Miami Dolphins – Buffalo Bills game
Why this game in particular? Well, since we just loved the way T.O. fucked with the media this week, we’re rooting for him this Sunday.
The sports betting world is getting set to make their NFL picks for Week 4 of the 2009 NFL football season and one of the things everyone needs to be aware of is, of course, injuries. But not just players who are out of the lineup because of nicks and bruises, but also players who are coming back from an injury, or from a league mandated suspension.
First we have Buffalo Bills running back Marshawn Lynch rejoining the team this week for the trip to Florida to play the Miami Dolphins. Lynch is scheduled to return to the team after serving a three-game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. He pleaded guilty in March to a misdemeanor gun charge in Los Angeles, it was his second run-in with the law in the past two years.
The Bill’s leading rusher the past few years, Buffalo obviously welcomes Marshawn Lynch back to the roster with open arms. Bettors have made money on the Bills against the spread this year but a straight-up win-loss record on the wrong side of .500 leaves coach Dick Jauron with little choice but to get Lynch involved right away.
The Miami Dolphins have been forced into major roster changes of their own this week, but given the situation, the sports betting public may find more value with odds on the Dolphins covering the spread than the visitor.
Online sportsbooks have been busy trying to get a handle on this Week 4 AFC East matchup, as the situation for the Dolphins is unstable at the moment after QB Chad Pennington left last week’s game vs. San Diego with a shoulder injury.
Odds on this game were expected to favor Miami, mostly thanks to the standard three points given for home field advantage, but the loss of Pennington coupled with the return of Lynch has the line sitting at -2.5 on the visitor, and the early betting reported at SPORTSBETTING.COM shows the betting public leaning towards the Bills with 63 percent of all the volume on Buffalo.
Check the current NFL Lines at SPORTSBETTING.COM.
There are two things regarding injuries for bettors to keep in mind, teams often rally in the first game after a star goes down and backup players thrown into the role of starter will occasionally turn out to be a better fit than the starter himself. Both of these betting tips are directly related to this matchup.
Let’s start with Buffalo, where third year back Fred Jackson has started in place of Lynch all three games this season, carrying 61 times for 291 yards. That’s already more than half of Jackson’s total (571 yards) through 16 games last year and it’s 73 yards better than Lynch could do in his first three games of 2008.
In Miami, the ball is being handed to second year pro Chad Henne, who has been groomed since Day 1 as Pennington’s heir apparent. Sports bettors only have to think back one year to remember what happened when Matt Cassel, a virtual unknown, unexpectedly stepped into the role of starting quarterback for New England.
NFL betting is about staying ahead of the curve and making selections based on teams that will do whatever it takes to win and cover the spread in the process. Playing at home against a division rival and getting the chance to show up Terrell Owens, it seems that motivation will be high with the Dolphins this week while Buffalo deals with trying to force a starter into a spot that was being filled quite nicely without him.
That kind of thing can cause real disruption in a fragile locker room and in team sports, the whole squad needs to be on the same page to win. Don’t forget, Miami did win 11 games last year straight-up and went .500 against the spread. At 0-3 you can bet the coaching staff (and Bill Parcells) are looking at those game as a great opportunity for their first win.
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Can the Buffalo Bills beat the Miami Dolphins? SPORTSBETTING.COM has the odds.
Buffalo Bills -2.5
Miami Dolphins +2.5
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Comments
October 2nd, 2009 at 7:11 am
Sports betting can really give you lots of money but you must be reminded that it can also get a lot from you as well. Hence, a lot of sports bettors are surely having fun in the process but a lot also end up financially broke, not being able to handle their money and budget for betting well. Since sports betting is a world full of risk and chances, you will never know when bad luck can strike. Nevertheless, it is important for any bettor to think about applying an effective system made out of thorough research and study to be assured of a nice amount of profit by the end of each month.
December 4th, 2009 at 11:29 pm
Hey what was that bro doing, that’s insane