NFL Betting: Our Tuesday Morning Misery
READ MORE: American Gambling News, Atlanta Falcons, NFL Betting, New York Jets
One e-mail from a reader sums up last night’s loss quite aptly:
Subject: How do these fucks contrive to not cover the 8 1/2?
Great question. We don’t know what it means, exactly, but great question nonetheless. Especially when Michael Vick manages to throw three picks and go 11-of-26 for 116 yards with only three completions to wideouts. His passer rating was an atrocious 16.3. 16.3.
Yet, the Jets lost the cover thanks to Testaverde’s ineptitude and all those turnovers. Testaverde’s three fumbles in the first 17 minutes pretty much spotted the Falcons 17 points. So, that’s what we get for buying into our misguided theory not to bet against the Jets on Monday Night Football. Never again. Not this season, at least. And yes, we’ll be good sports about this. Our cantankerous friend over at American Gambling News has a nice little scoreboard displaying our dorktastic head-to-head NFL pick ‘em drinking challenge this year:
There’s still time. We’re not shopping for a case of Iron City just yet.
Chopping Lines: Herm Edwards’ Game Face of God
READ MORE: Atlanta Falcons, Chopping Lines, NFL Betting, New York Jets
Mon. 9 p.m.
NY Jets (2-4)
at
Atlanta Falcons (4-2)
This a game of injuries as the Atlanta Falcons’ banged up defensive line finally adjusts itself and looks to stack-up a surging Curtis Martin and the Jets are looking for, well, something. Seriously, this is one of the most boring Monday match-ups ever, regardless of how exciting Michael Vick is. Atlanta’s a horrible place to watch a football game on television as you’re stuck waiting for Michael Vick to do somethig spectacular between the echoing noise.(We’re convinced they just made the stadium as acoustically tricky as possible because of the low fanbase numbers for so long. Now that it’s packed, well, it’s like a wind-tunnel in there.)If he doesn’t, well, you have Warrick Dunn dancing around going nowhere and Alge Crumpler running 7-yard-out patterns and running over defensive backs. Fun. And the Jets are just as bad. Sure Martin’s little flurry last weekend was mildly amusing, but seriously, the man’s got not much left in the tank and is not going to put up these numbers every weekend. But, bad d-line versus surging running back seems to be a nice match-up for anybody, but we still don’t think Martin will be much of a factor—especially with Jets’center Kevin Mawae out for the season. However, we do like the Jets with points on Monday nights. We’ll take that generous 9 and pray for a low-scoring game.
PICK!: NYJ +9
Chopping Lines: No More Hurricane Sadness
READ MORE: Atlanta Falcons, Chopping Lines, NFL Betting, New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Atlanta Falcons (3-2)
at
New Orleans Saints (2-2)
Best Line: SAINTS +6, ATL -4.5
Poor America’s team. Once it appeared that the ??? Saints would somehow overcompensate for the fact that they’re not very good by playing for Hurricane Katrina victims after an emotional week one victory over Carolina. Then they got humiliated on Monday Night Football agains the Giants. Then the lost their best player in Deuce McAllister last week when they got trounced by the Packers 52-3. No Hurricane can save them now. The Falcons have decimated defense, but the return of Ron Mexico this weekend can only mean better things for the Falcons even if he can’t move the offense as well as shlubby-looking Matt Schaub. That’s all it’ll take to beat the Saints, really. That and having their Superdome used as a batting cage for God.
PICK!: ATL -4.5
Chopping Lines: We Do Like Wearing Viking Costumes
READ MORE: Atlanta Falcons, Chopping Lines, Minnesota Vikings, NFL Betting
Sun. 1 p.m.
Minnesota Vikings (1-2)
at
Atlanta Falcons (2-1)
Last week Daunte Culpepper finally arrived and showed us that he’s still the big, lumbering quarterback who can still find non-ganja smoking receivers when he needs to and make the big play. Mwelde Moore is back again and Michael Bennent fantasy owners are pissed. We’re still not impressed with Atlanta so far and don’t see any reason they should be getting this many points. Maybe Minnesota’s defense isn’t as improved as it should be, but we still like the Vikings winning in a shoot-out if it comes down to it. Plus, there’s always the Mike Tice factor. He’s a fantastic coach. (We had to say that because he got us Superbowl tickets last year.)
PICK!: MIN +6
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NFL Betting: Michael Vick’s Limp Leg Equals 2 1/2 Points
READ MORE: Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Michael Vick, NFL Betting
So even though Michael Vick is no friend to fantasy football players, he apparently does have some impact on betting lines. The fleet-footed Ron Mexico’s hamstring injury held up the number on the Atlanta Falcons versus Buffalo Bills opening line, but the books were seemingly content with his “probable” status and posted Atlanta as 2 1/2 point road underdogs. The thought being, obviously, if Vick is gimpy, the Falcons deteriorate into mediocrity. And against a husky Buffalo defense with quick linebackers, Vick’s overall game is pretty much rendered obsolete. Plus, the Bills are at home, which means there will be fat guys with blue and red painted on their brawny chests. That’s always a distraction.
Vick Practices, Now Probable Vs. Bills [Covers]
Atlanta at Buffalo [Covers]
Paddy Power Gets Drunk on the Atlanta Falcons
READ MORE: Atlanta Falcons, NFL Betting, Paddy Power, Philadelphia Eagles, Super Bowl Futures
This is why European bookmakers shouldn’t follow the NFL. After last night’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles(fukdatshit), sportsbook hooligans Paddy Power have moved the Falcons’ odds of winning the Super Bowl from 12/1 to 7/1, putting them in the same class as, well, the Iggles. This is retarded and proves that this sports betting site has been paying attention to beauty pageants and Aussie rules football matches to really be considered a good place to get accurate lines for American football. Isn’t there some sort of Eurovision competition they should be showing lines on?
Super Bowl XI Lines for Atlanta Falcons [Readabet]
Chopping Lines: Oh, To Be at Chickie’s and Pete’s Tonight
READ MORE: A.J. Benza, Atlanta Falcons, Chopping Lines, NFL Betting, Philadelphia Eagles
9 p.m.
Philadelphia Eagles
at
Best Line: ATL +1.5, PHL -0, O/U 42
Delicate as this procedure might be, removing the betting public from Michael Vick’s dick is relatively painless and simple. And the only known side effects that might occur are extreme cockiness, occasional bursts of euphoria and swelling of the pockets.The procedure begins with the science of indisputable facts that can only help you towards long-term health and happiness. And some of those numbers go like this:Philadelphia wouldn’t get an argument from me if it changed its name to the Road Warriors. They have posted an NFL-best 31-9 record over the last 5 seasons. They also boast a 37-22 record in games broadcast on primetime TV, and a gaudy 16-2 primetime mark under coach Andy Reid. And since Monday Night Football is as primetime as it gets, you shouldn’t need more of an assurance than that. But there’s more here, so come and get some. Philly was also 11-1 last season against the NFC. And they have also amassed a 4-0 record against the Atlanta Falcons across the last 5 seasons in which their average margin of victory was 16 points and change. And here’s a sweet stat for you: The Eagles are an impressive 30-13 against the number in the last 5 years. Now I’m not usually such a numbers whore, but these figures have me laying down and lifting up the gold sheet with one hand. Capeesh? When you crunch the numbers for Atlanta, it’s nothing but dismal. The Dirty Birds offer a 3-4 mark as dogs against the spread last season. And an even scarier 15-25 over the last 5 seasons. They are 8-1 at the Georgia Dome, but that one fact isn’t enough for me to toss aside all of the beautiful science that the Eagles have laid down. Philly’s most effective way of defeating the nimble Vick and his Falcons is to stay away from blitzing and employ a containment style of defense, which should shut down any form of daylight too tempting for Vick to scramble through. Other than that, Donovan McNabb is going to have to look for Brian Westbrook a helluva lot more that he finds the heavily-blanketed Terrell Owens. The McNabb to Westbrook hook-up should be enough for the Eagles to chew up consistent yardage before they rely on the quick-strike abilities of T.O. Philly’s mighty arsenal and their ability to perform with cool heads, make tonight’s play easy.
BENZAPICK!: PHI -0
(YTD 1-1)
NFL Betting: T.O.’s Abs Move Line
READ MORE: Atlanta Falcons, NFL Betting, Philadelphia Eagles, Terrell Owens
Terrell Owens impact is pervasive. If it’s not team chemistry he’s disrupting, it’s the O/U total on tonight’s Monday night match-up between the Atlanta Falcons and the Philadelphia Eagles. And most surprisingly, he didn’t even have to utter a wince-inducing word to move the line. According to Covers, the T.O. factor was what pushed tonight’s points total up to its current lofty 41.5. Most books see this game as a huge under favorite, but according to one, the T.O. factor has to be taken into consideration:
“When you look at the total, you have to remember that Terrell Owens is back in the fold for Philly,” says BetWWTS.com linesmaker Michael Pierce. “He didn’t play last year when the teams scored 37 combined points, so I think the total is just about right at 41 1/2”
We can also bet that the o/u on the amount of sit-ups T.O.’s will do after he scores a touchdown is set at four. He’s a freak about his physical fitness and we say he smashes that over fairly easily.
Chopping Lines: Expecting a Slow Night In Jacksonville
READ MORE: Atlanta Falcons, Benza Pick, Chopping Lines, Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL Betting
Atlanta Falcons (2-1-0)
AT
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-0-0)
Thursday, August 25th - 8PM
Best Line: Atlanta -3
If the Atlanta Falcons don’t host the NFC title game this season, coach Jim Mora Jr.’s hair might go from gray to gone. And my insiders tell me his assistants are currently scrambling to get him an appointment at The Bosley Hair Institute as we speak. What do they know that you don’t know?
For one thing, that Michael Vick sure is a dynamic quarterback to watch. There are very few things the kid needs, outside of more weapons, more experience, better accuracy and a little more finesse. For another thing, management sat on their asses during the offseason and watched as some experienced veteran free agents were nabbed by other (smarter, less chintzy) teams. And sadly, the Falcons did squat in terms of getting Vick more downfield targets. And that’s flat-out stupid when your highly-touted West Coast offense rang in a shitty 30th in passing yards. Guess management is keeping with that time-honored fact that the Falcons have NEVER had two winning seasons in a row.
On the flip side, call me Byron Leftwich’s bitch. The Jaguars rocket-armed QB now has 27 games under his belt and is poised to bust out. But the team’s paltry offensive output last season (last in the AFC) and coach Jack Del Rio’s desire to run the ball up teams’ asses, will make this game almost as boring as Monday’s Dallas/Seattle affair. Vick and Leftwich probably coming out before halftime will make this game about as thrilling as your wife’s Pocket Rocket without one of its batteries. The play (and BENZAPick!) here is the total and I like UNDER 39.
NFL Futures Betting: Hey Leftwich! You Suck!
READ MORE: Atlanta Falcons, Byron Leftwich, Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL Betting
Well, not really. But the clunky pre-season outing thus far by Jacksonville Jaguars’ quarterback Byron Leftwich has fans and handicappers all titty-twisted over the Jags prospects this year. Jaguars’ wood-chopping coach Jack Del Rio is sticking by Leftwich and has not revealed any problems or indications that the Jags will not continue to try to implement a “more vertical” attack this year. Keep an eye on Leftwich’s performance tomorrow night against the Falcons before you completely throw this guy under the bus. We can’t ever count out a guy who played in a college game with a goddamn broken leg. The Jags are still 2.5 to 3 point favorites against Atlanta tomorrow night.
Atlanta at Jacksonville Line [Covers]
‘Cappers, Fans Devalue Struggling Leftwich [Covers]
Chopping Lines: Gather Round Ye’ Titans
READ MORE: Atlanta Falcons, Chopping Lines, NFL Betting, Tennessee Titans
7:30 p.m.
Tennessee Titans (0-1-0)
at
Atlanta Falcons (2-0-0)
Best Line: Tennessee +4, Atlanta -3
Ain’t no party like a back-up party and a back-up party is this. Atlanta Falcons’ quarterback Michael Vick will see limited snaps, hence leaving most of the dirty work to back-up Matt Schaub, who is the quarterback equivalent of a piece of driftwood. On the other hand, while Titans’ quarterback Steve McNair is getting his vertebrae sewn on between quarters, the Titans will counter with free-slinging Billy Volek, who threw for something like 10,000 yards in back-up duty the last part of last season when McNair went down. Volek also single-handedly made Drew Bennett the Titans number one wide receiver, thanks to him being the recipient of most of Volek’s passes. Put those two together, plus consider that a good portion of the Falcons’ defense will be on the sidelines dressed in their best FUBU outfits, well, the Titans and points are a fantastic play.
PICK!: Titans +4
(YTD 0-4)
Chopping Lines: American Bowl
READ MORE: Atlanta Falcons, Chopping Lines, Indianapolis Colts, NFL Betting
5:05 AM August 6
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
at
Best Line: Colts -2.5, o/u 41.5
The NFL is back? Does this mean we can kick the methadone and just mainline the awesomeness of football betting again? You’re damn right. And where better to kick things off than Japan? Okay, so there’s plenty of places we’d rather see the NFL kick things off than Japan, especially considering they’re making us TiVo a dumbass preseason game that starts at something like four in the morning. No worries, we’re sure that Chef Tony will find another timeslot where we can record our Ultimate Chopper show.
So it’s Manning versus the Falcon front four, at least until second down when he gets pulled for Jim Sorgi or some third-rate QB named Billy Joe. And Mike Vick gets a couple chances to twist an ankle or tear an MCL, but we hear MCLs are a delicacy in Japan, so he’ll be all set if that happens. There are only a few important tidbits to consider. First off, Dungy is coaching these Colts in the preseason like he’s got money right alongside ours. They’re 6-2 in the preseason versus the spread, and that’s always a good omen. The other stat? No team who has opened the preseason with a win in Japan has went on to win the Super Bowl. Unless Dungy is a superstitious man, we don’t think he’ll toss this game just to get past Brady/Belicheck and whatever sacrificial lamb the NFC will trot out this year (go Lions!). Right now the Colts are giving 2.5 to the Falcons. Since we’re basing this bet entirely on backup RB potential, we like Dominic Rhodes in relief better than we like Deandra Cobb. Therefore, expect the Colts to shine. And then they’ll all get sushi and sing karaoke.
PICK! Colts -2.5
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