California Earthquake - Oddjack

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12September2005Monday

Books Right About Katrina; Watch Out for California Quake

READ MORE: California Earthquake, Event Betting, Hurricane Katrina, Odds

earthquake_ins.jpgOf course it’s probably a little insensitive to start a whole natural disaster futures market at this point, but it almost seems like that columnist Jan Larson sees it as a good plan. She mentions that a major Category 4 hurricane was predicted to strike New Orleans coast region once every 200-300 years and it did. She lambastes a few government agencies in the process , but is also resigning to the fact that maybe advertising imminent death and destruction isn’t the best way to live life. However:

Seismologists have predicted that some day, sooner or later, a massive earthquake (the “big one”) will strike California. Again, when that day will come is anyone’s guess. Unlike hurricanes along the coast or volcanoes in the Pacific Northwest, a California earthquake would likely not come with a warning and the loss of life could number in the hundreds of thousands but the odds-makers say that it won’t happen anytime soon, so millions of people are willing to take that chance.

Who are these “oddsmakers”? We’re pretty sure it’s Paddy Power. They’re always into crap like this. And from the way things are going, a futures pick on a California earthquake seems like a major payout in the next few years.

Katrina and Playing the Odds [Chron Watch]
California Earthquake Could be the Next Katrina [ChicagoTribune]