They Fought So You Could Use A Computer To Pick Horseys

READ MORE: CompuTrak, CompuTrak Picks, Horse Racing

We had no idea people actually got Veteran’s Day off, and feel jealous as hell that some of our faithful readers get to spend the day at the track instead of in front of their computer like us. At the request of one of our readers with a holiday tomorrow, we’re tossing some CompuTrak picks out for tomorrow’s cards at Churchill and Laurel. After the jump, let the computer tell you where to put your money…

CHURCHILL DOWNS - FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 11

As always, watch the weather for the turf handicapping. If they’re off the turf, throw out the picks CompuTrak is making.

CT Best Bets
3 - Mapp Hill
6 - Save Big Money
9 - Mythical Conquest
10 - El Batallon

Others Worth Watching
3 - Solitary (CompuTrak odds = 3.93-1), Fitzroyal (4.75)
4 - Rio Ruckus (4.33), Lejos (4.75)
5 - Retrospect (1.78)
7 - Come Close (3.03), I’m Going Platinum (3.30)
8 - Big K (2.73)
9 - Load a Chronic (3.19 - and is Snoop naming horses now?)
10 - Tiznow or Never (1.67)

LAUREL PARK - FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 11

CT Best Bets
2 - Smart Ana (M/L 6-1)
3 - Top Time (M/L 5-2)
6 - Fotogenico (M/L 4-1)
7 - Bargain Belle (M/L 9/2)

Others Worth Watching
1 - Cool Double (3.64, M/L 8-1)
2 - Psyco Gator (2.91, M/L 15-1), Seventeen Above (3.40, M/L 7-2)
3 - Seneca Wind (3.24, M/L 6-1), Diamond Kind (4.14, M/L 30-1)
4 - Nasdaq Queen (2.78, M/L 12-1)
8 - Heartful Hero (3.71, M/L 10-1)
9 - Quick Approval (1.64, M/L 5-2)

CompuTrak [Revelation Profits]
Previously: Horse Racing: A Sucker For Technology [Oddjack]
Previously: CompuTrak vs. BG [Oddjack]

Next-Gen GTA PS3 Exclusive?

READ MORE: GTA, PS3, next-gen, rockstar, xbox 360

Gamer Andy is reporting that an industry insider has confirmed for them that the next generation of Grand Theft Auto will be exclusive to the Playstation 3. Could be possible, but would exclusive truly mean exclusive or would it mean the PS3 version comes out six months before the 360 version. And quite frankly, as much as I loved the GTA concept I think it’s time for Rockstar to move the franchise (and gaming) forward to a new type of play. GTA is Confirmed Exclusive [Gamer Andy]

Horse Racing: CompuTrak Picks Spa Saturday

READ MORE: CompuTrak, CompuTrak Picks, Horse Racing, Saratoga, Travers Stakes

It’s been a little while since we gave CompuTrak (not pictured) another chance to stand alone on its picks, but with a big day at Saratoga, and plenty of people playing the big multi-race wagers, we figured we’d let CT take a stab, and trot the results on out for you. After the jump, naturally…

Saratoga Saturday, August 27th

1) #6 Cathedral Lodge 20/1 on the Morning Line is the CT Pick, with similarly rated #1 Christian X at 6/1 close behind.
2) CT Picks #3 Megatrend 4/1, we suggest pairing Megatrend with #9 Seneca Point (10/1) in an exacta.
3) #1 Pulpit Exchange is the CT Pick and a Morning Line 3/1, with #2 Watchmon and #7 Shark both at 6/1 close behind.
4) No CompuTrak Pick, although the odds line likes three horses on top. 15/1 #6 Holden Champagne, 7/2 #1 Silver Strings, and 5/1 #8 Cologne.
5) #4 Prince Rahy gets the CT love at 6/1, with #9 Minister’s Joy at 15/1 closely rated.
6) #6 Political Force is the CT Pick, although the data isn’t extensive with only three horses generating figures.
7) CT really goes out on a limb with #6 Whale, as he’s the chalk at 7/5.
8) No CT Pick here, but look at 5/1 shot #3 Senor Swinger as a legit contender.
9) #4 Henny Hughes is the CT Pick. Unfortunately, he’s the chalk at 1/1
10) CT identifies #1 Fusaichi Rock Star at 15/1 as the pick, and he’s by far the best bet in this race as per the software. You’re a retard if you don’t figure #3 Lost In The Fog is going to win this one though.
11) In the Travers, the software likes #4 Roman Ruler at 5/2, followed by #7 Flower Alley at 3/1, then #1 Bellamy Road at 2/1.
12) #1 Tiverton is the chalk at 3/1, and the CT Pick to boot. Back him up with #11 Lion Cat at 15/1, who’s closely rated here.

And, as a bonus, how about a few races from the minor leagues?

Great Lakes Downs - Saturday, August 27th.

2) #6 Storm Witness and #5 Joya are both 8/1 on the Morning Line, and both are the clear favorites according to CompuTrak.
4) #8 Spirit of Prayer is a 10/1 M/L shot, the CT Pick, and another clear favorite as per the software in this race. Back up with #4 Revend (15/1) and #2 King of the Park (8/1) in an exacta.
5) #6 Tune Lender is the CT Pick, the chalk at 2/1, and a big favorite in this race.
7) #5 Mystic River is 3/1 on the Morning Line, and probably the best bet on this CompuTrak card.
9) 15/1 Morning Line choice #6 Prince of York has the best CompuTrak oddsline, and is definitely worth a look here.

CompuTrak [Revelation Profits]
For Race Information [Equibase]
Previously: Horse Racing: A Sucker For Technology [Oddjack]
Previously: Oddjack Expert: What the Hell Am I Betting On Here? [Oddjack]
Previously: Primer: Pretending You’re Not A Rookie At The Track [Oddjack]

CompuTrak vs. Paddock Pete vs. Lindsay - Endgame

READ MORE: CompuTrak, CompuTrak Picks, Horse Racing, Paddock Pete

What an uneventful second half of the afternoon. Longshots ruled the roost in the last two, and aside from a $9.70 win on Princess Dee in the sixth for Paddock Pete, everyone took the donut across the board.

Final totals for Lindsay and CompuTrak were just a single winner apiece, with Lindsay edging CT by $.40. Pete didn’t exactly make money, supposing he made all the fictitious bets we laid out, but he smoked these two by nearly $150.

Man rules machine, one more time.

Saratoga Home Page
Previously: CompuTrak Takes On All Comers [Oddjack]

CompuTrak vs. Paddock Pete vs. Lindsay - Halftime Score

READ MORE: CompuTrak, CompuTrak Picks, Horse Racing, Paddock Pete, Saratoga

Through four races at Saratoga, Paddock Pete has jumped out to a nearly insurmountable lead. While CompuTrak did hit the winner in the second, so did Paddock Pete. Cash Flow paid $3.50 on the victory, but Pete managed to mix in the exacta for an additional $15 hit. Lindsay also caught a winner, Silvestris in the fourth. Thing is, that horse actually finished third, but was a paired entry with Beholden, who Pete hit for the same $3.90 payout.

That’s not all though. Pete hit the exacta and trifecta in the first, paying $38.40 and $87.50 respectively (not to mention the $3.80 win payout on Victory Circle). Lindsay and CompuTrak need a big hit over the last five to catch ol’ Pete.

Results from Saratoga Thursday, August 18th [Equibase]
Previously: CompuTrak Takes On All Comers [Oddjack]

Horse Racing: CompuTrak Takes On All Comers

READ MORE: CompuTrak, CompuTrak Picks, Horse Racing, PaddockPete, Saratoga

We love this man-versus-machine gambit, and since we paid for CompuTrak already, we may as well get some mileage out of the thing. Since we already let our own expert handicapper knock the binary out of that program last week, we were anxious to let someone else take a crack.

See who we found, after the jump…

SCIENCE MEETS METHOD MEETS MADNESS

One of our faithful readers sent in a link to a blogger calling himself Paddock Pete, who hit a real nice winner for himself yesterday at Saratoga:

Race 9 - Kate Winslet, Rahy’s Appeal, The Lamp Is Lit ($2 win paid $14.80, $2 trifecta paid $444; +444.80)

We thought we’d throw Paddock Pete to the wolves today. We’ll let him make his picks, but we’re putting him in the steel cage with CompuTrak and Friend-To-Oddjack Lindsay Robertson, who promised us she’d only pick the horses with the prettiest names. The ground rules? Each handicapper picks three horses per race, we throw them into the hypothetical machine and process out a boxed exacta, boxed trifecta, and three $2 win bets. Across nine races, that adds up to a mythical $270 apiece. We’ll keep you posted as to the progress through the day.

PADDOCK PETE STEPS TO THE PLATE

Copied from today’s entry on his blog:

Race 1 - Prep School, Victory Circle, Pincay
Race 2 - Park Shore, Cash Flow, Bizzy Cat
Race 3 - Spooky Mulder, Thunder Touch, Mr. Whitestone
Race 4 - Beholden, High Country, Royal Pleasure
Race 5 - Tax Considerations, Faster Tapper, Elusive Toga
Race 6 - Princess Dee, Those Littlethings, Embraceable You
Race 7 - She’s Sterling, Fastidia(GB), Just A Little Jet
Race 8 - Clever Electrician, Top Shoter, Papua
Race 9 - Drizzly, Haze My Man, Colonial Drive

COMPUTRAK TAKES A CRACK

1) CompuTrak doesn’t even try making picks in this one, but the oddsline will give us our trifecta. #2 Elusive Image (10/1) is the best rated, followed by #7 R.C. Indy at 15/1 and #6 Desert Swing at 6/1.
2) #2 Five Star Dream is the CompuTrak Pick, box her up with #8 Cash Flow (2/1) and #1 Fiddlers Trick (9/2).
3) #3 Thunder Touch is the M/L favorite at 7/5, and the CompuTrak Pick. Box him with #4 Key Deputy and #2 Spooky Mulder (7/2 and 3/1 respectively).
4) #4 Motion (20/1) is the pick, but without any data pulled for the other horses, this isn’t a ringing endorsement. Handle with care.
5) #5 Roxanne’s Dancer (10/1) is the Pick, with #2 Elusive Toga (12/1) and #3 Tax Considerations (5/2).
6) #4 Doctorinthenews (8/1) gets the CompuTrak love, with #7 Those LittleThings (3/1) and paired third choices #6 Shoot the Bugler (15/1) and #5 Predatory Lender (5/1).
7) No CompuTrak pick, but the oddsline gives us #9 Stock Tip (12/1), #5 Captiva Bay (8/1), and #4 Just a Little Jet (5/1).
8) #5 Clever Electrician (5/2) is the CompuTrak pick, and the best bet on the card today. Add #4 Top Shoter (3/1) and #8 Seeking the Money (30/1).
9) No pick, and we can see why. The software sees this as a huge crapshoot, with any of seven horses similarly bunched. Look at #11 Haze My Man (7/2) with #7 Thundering Creek (15/1) and #6 Outdraw (8/1) as the top three.

LINDSAY SAYS HORSES ARE PRETTY

Lindsay takes her turn:

1) Prep School / Aristocrat / Copyco
2) Access Alex / Jilted Lady / Bizzy Cat
3) Spooky Mulder / Mr. Whitestone / Thunder Touch
4) Party Circuit / Silvestris / Royal Pleasure
5) Faster Tapper / Flower Flag / Roxanne’s Dancer
6) Those Littlethings / Embraceable You / Shoot the Bugler
7) Expect Nothing / Flaming Heart / Pixie Stix
8) Clever Electrician / Seeking the money / Jet Prospector
9) Drizzly / Colonial Drive / Haze My Man

Previously: BG vs. CompuTrak - The Final Score [Oddjack]
Previously: Horse Racing: A Sucker For Technology [Oddjack]
Previously: Oddjack Expert: What the Hell Am I Betting On Here? [Oddjack]
Previously: Primer: Pretending You’re Not A Rookie At The Track [Oddjack]

Now, if Only She Learned How to Pick Movie Scripts…

READ MORE: CompuTrak, Gambling, Johnny Knoxville

Jackass star Johnny Knoxville has admitted his nine-year-old daughter is now “addicted” to gambling on horses after a day out at the track. Even a nine-year-old could pick better than CompuTrak did for us this weekend.

Knoxville’s Daugther Shows a Talent for Gambling [Contact Music]

Horse Racing: Reader Mail

READ MORE: 2005 Breeders Cup, CompuTrak, CompuTrak Picks, Horse Racing, Saratoga

Esteemed reader “MT” checks in with the following question.

“Are you going to give us the machine picks for the NTRA Pick Four? I’m looking to beat Kitten’s Joy and need all the help I can get.”

We’ll lay it out for MT, after the jump…

TAKE YOUR PICK

The NTRA Pick Four this weekend covers four huge Stakes races - two at Arlington Park (including the Arlington Million), and two at Saratoga. As always with the big races, we rarely see them as big money making opportunities despite the enormous handle being on TV can generate. There’s usually smarter money than you wagering huge sums, and unless there’s a true “name brand” horse (think: the underwhelming Funny Cide) in the race for the public to put way too much money on, you’re probably not finding a ton of value to be had. We’ve covered this before in another post.

But, if you’re going to bet, you’re going to have to do it without CompuTrak’s assistance. We didn’t pull the data for the two cards, and can’t get to it in time for it to make a difference for you anyway (unless, by some miracle, we update this post late tonight or tomorrow - you may want to bookmark this space for later).

There is some decent analysis on the Pick Four, which can be found on the NTRA site. On the topic of beating Kitten’s Joy, Ellis Starr offers this analysis:

Kitten’s Joy, the 2004 Eclipse Winner as best male turf horse, came back from over eight months off on July 4 to win the Grade 2 Firecracker Breeders’ Cup Handicap. That race, run at one mile, puts Kitten’s Joy in shape to more forward nicely, back to the form shown last year and before the layoff that won him the Eclipse. One of those victories came at this distance and over this course on this day last year in the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes, restricted to three-year-olds only, but since Kitten’s Joy beat older foes in two of his last three starts the only question is whether he can improve enough off his last to win this race with these tough foes.

Can you beat him in this spot? We’re saying no. Single him on your ticket, try to build up possibilities in the Beverly D., and don’t ignore Kelly’s Landing in the Vanderbilt. ABC has the telecast for you at 4PM EST on Saturday.

SATURDAY SELECTIONS FOR SARATOGA/ARLINGTON VIA COMPUTRAK

Updated 935AM Saturday 8/13/05

Arlington - Saturday 8/13/05 Card

1) CompuTrak likes 2/1 #7 Joe W.
2) No “CompuTrak Pick” made for this race. Not a lot of data to play with on this one either.
3) #1 Golden Verse is a 12/1 M/L shot, and the CompuTrak pick. Lots of things to like about this horse here - so long as you can get past that he’s stepping up from $4k claiming ranks to face horses in the $14k class.
4) CompuTrak likes #8 Powder River under Shawn Bridgmohan as a 6/1 pick here.
5) 4/1 on the M/L, CompuTrak advises #1 Nkosi Reigns.
6) No pick here by the software, and their oddsline likes exactly none of these horses as a prohibitive favorite. According to their numbers, you might be able to find value on the #1 if he goes off above 5/1. Tough race to play here.
7) Three reasons to like the #3 here. First, it’s the CompuTrak pick. Second, it’s 15/1. Third? He’s named Bob O’s Boy. You know how we love betting on horses named Bob. Back it up with the #1 Straight Line at 3/1 for insurance.
8) No pick by CompuTrak in the Beverly D. That being said, if you’re just looking at the oddsline it calculates, you have a longshot to mix in. #3 Miss Terrible is 10/1 on the M/L, has Patrick Valenzuela aboard, and rates well on the software’s nebulous “Friction” rating. For NTRA Pick Four purposes, mix in #9 Angara and #7 Melhor Ainda.
9) Any guesses who CompuTrak likes in the Million? #1 Kitten’s Joy gets the love here. By how much on the software’s oddsline? Not a lot, really. Kitten’s Joy gets a 3.08 (lower = better, obviously), while #7 Sweet Return gets a 3.67, followed by #4 Fourty Niners Son at 4.88 and #10 Cool Conductor with 5.47 on the line. Looking at the data, we really like Sweet Return. There you go MT, that’s how you beat a Kitty.
10) No picks here either. The one horse from the four contenders to toss is the #3 More Moonlight, who holds the 2/1 M/L support. The other horses in the 4/1 neighborhood are similarly rated as good choices.
11) Another race, another pass by CompuTrak. It’s worth mentioning that #2 Purim holds the 5/2 Morning Line chalk, but is rated as the unlikeliest factor of this group. Try #5 Legal Precedent, who should have value with a 15/1 M/L instead.
12) #4 Johnny Red Kerr is a 3/1 Morning Line pick, and worth a look as the CompuTrak pick in this race - unless they pull the horses off the turf to the main track, then you’re going to have to analyze this one on your own.

Saratoga - Saturday 8/13/05 Card

1) CompuTrak likes #3 Somethingdangerous. Good stuff at 6/1 on this pick.
2) #2 Megatrend is the CompuTrak Pick at 5/1 on the M/L.
3) The software likes both the #1 and #2. That being said, those are the only two horses the software could sort data for. Pass on these as viable picks.
4) CompuTrak shows #3 Hot Space as their pick, we suggest adding #2 Executive Choice. Both are 3/1, and maybe an exacta can make some money here.
5) No software selection, and with slim data to choose from, we’re not disappointed. Look to #4 Winning Minister, or play our patented Double Bob pick of the day: #6 Crafty Roberto ridden by Robby Albarado.
6) No picks, and this is a wide open race. Good luck making sense of this one.
7) The Vanderbilt is part of the NTRA Pick Four, and that makes CompuTrak’s pick of the chalk disappointing. They advise #5 Smokume, but we suggest mixing in #4 Pomeroy and #7 Kelly’s Landing to round out your ticket.
8) No pick by the software in the Sword Dancer, which closes out our NTRA Pick Four analysis. We looked at the CompuTrak data, and suggest #1 Meteor Storm at 6/1 and #2 Vangelis at 10/1. You may want to toss #8 Better Talk Now into this spot too if he’s running this race.
9) Way to go out on a limb CompuTrak. We like 4/5 M/L pick #3 The Daddy too.
10) No CompuTrak pick in another wide open race. We’re not enthused when a computer can’t just take a stand.

NTRA Pick Four Ticket, as per CompuTrak

Beverly D. - 3 & 7 & 9
Million - 1 & 7
Vanderbilt - 5 & 4 & 7
Sword Dancer - 1 & 2

Price = 3 x 2 x 3 x 2 = $36

Screw Kitten’s Joy Ticket, as per Oddjack

Beverly D. - 6 & 7 & 9 (throwing longshot out, adding 4/1 Wend, ignoring Megahertz)
Million - 4 & 7 & 10
Vanderbilt - 4 & 7 (tossing Smokume, looking to score big)
Sword Dancer - 1 & 2 (and leaving Better Talk Now off hurts)

Price = 3 x 3 x 2 x 2 = $36

National Thoroughbred Racing Association [NTRA]
Previously: You’re Dead Money At The Track [Oddjack]
Previously: Horse Racing: A Sucker For Technology [Oddjack]
Previously: Oddjack Expert: What the Hell Am I Betting On Here? [Oddjack]
Previously: Primer: Pretending You’re Not A Rookie At The Track [Oddjack]

Horse Racing: CompuTrak vs. BG - The Final Score

READ MORE: CompuTrak, CompuTrak Picks, Horse Racing, Saratoga

Who’s the man? BG took the early lead through four races, posting three winners to CompuTrak’s one. It didn’t help, of course, that the software sat on its (figurative) hands and refused to play along for the first half of the program.

From the fifth through the ninth and final race, BG continued to exert his dominance over CompuTrak. They both picked the #8 Blue Forest in the fifth, and she finished a close second to a 9/1 shot coming out of nowhere. The sixth was a wash for both parties, and the seventh was another instance where CompuTrak didn’t feel like scratching out a pick. BG’s #5 Maytown went off as the favorite, and ran a nose behind 10/1 horse Taint So.

But BG finished strong in the eighth, hitting the 4/1 third choice on the board Cloakof Vagueness. CompuTrak? Whiff. When they both finished the ninth without hitting the board the tally stood. BG - 4 / CompuTrak - 1. Man beats machine, as it was always meant to be.

Saratoga Results [Equibase]
Previously: Horse Racing: CompuTrak vs. BG - Halftime Score [Oddjack]
Previously: CompuTrak vs. BG [Oddjack]

Horse Racing: CompuTrak vs. BG - Halftime Score

READ MORE: CompuTrak, CompuTrak Picks, Horse Racing, Saratoga

Four races down at Saratoga, and BG is showing up big, while CompuTrak is rolling over and letting him run away with this thing without a fight.

BG and CompuTrak both hit the race one winner Zippy Missy, paying $5.50 on the win. But while the software didn’t sack up and make picks across the next three, BG did. He hit Love to Tango in the second ($9.20 to win), missed by a length on Yes Please in the third (placed to Dina), and his advice to take the chalk in the fourth paid off with My Dynomite, returning $2.90 on the win.

BG in the lead, three winners to one. We’ll let you how this ends up when the ninth is over.

Saratoga Results [Equibase]
Previously: CompuTrak vs. BG [Oddjack]

Horse Racing: CompuTrak vs. BG

READ MORE: CompuTrak, CompuTrak Picks, Horse Racing, Saratoga

Since we’ve had some mixed results with CompuTrak lately after a pretty hot start, we decided to put the software to the test. Today, we challenged our own horse racing columnist BG to handicap the card at Saratoga, and to put his picks right alongside what CompuTrak came up with. We’ll let them both have at it - after the jump…

A DAY AT THE SPA

It must be Ladies’ Day at Saratoga, as the card features a filly-and-mare heavy card, including the two De La Rose Stakes races in the latter half of the program. CompuTrak and BG both made their picks, we’ll let you know who’s the better handicapper later today. On to the races…

1) CompuTrak grabs #1 Zippy Missy in the Maiden Special Weight opener. She’s 3/1. We can’t argue with the pick here. Zippy Missy took second in her last race, which is always a good sign for a maiden, and also hung a great workout up on July 22nd, running four furlongs in 47.4, good for second best on the day. This horse gets it, and is going to move forward on this race.

2) The software isn’t wagering a guess, but we will. $40k claimer on the turf at one-and-one-eighth, with a bunch of capable horses lined up to go. Vettriano and Love to Tango are going to want to get out front, but looking at both of their fractions as front-runners, Love to Tango looks like he’s easily adaptable to both a slower pace up front, or a much quicker one (July 23rd race, first fraction at :50, won easily / Jan 15th, first fraction at :47.4, won easily). Vettriano’s May 28th effort puts him near the top of this field, but he has been largely inconsistent at this distance (losing in December by almost 44 lengths). We like #2 Love to Tango, which goes against our “don’t bet on front-runners running on grass” theory. Then again, he ran his stretch on July 23rd at :24.38, which was nearly a full second faster than either of his first two quarters. That’s always a good sign. Morning Line of 4/1, we’ll see what happens.

3) Another skipped race for CompuTrak, and another Maiden race to take a shot at. We’re seeing a two horse race at one-and-one-sixteenth on the turf between #6 Yes Please and #10 Baby Needs Shoes. Yes Please has two things in her favor - second last out at the same distance and surface, and a pretty solid Beyer of 81 making that happen. Baby Needs Shoes is a little higher on the tote board at 6/1, but if you look at the race two back at Churchill (May 11th), same distance/surface, you see the same Beyer of 81, and a very strong closing effort. Without a lot of obvious pace in a race like this one, closing effort becomes less of a key. Also, #10 is coming off a two month layoff. Seasoned, rested, and ready? Let’s take Yes Please, but don’t forget #10 in the exotics.

4) You’d think somehow the software was backing down from the challenge, as it doesn’t choose to take a stab here either. Then again, these are state-bred two year-olds in a Maiden race, and only two of them have run before. Handicapping on lineage is absolutely not our strong suit, so if you’re going to play, follow the chalk or look to the second or third choices. We give up.

5) CompuTrak is back with #8 Blue Forest as its pick. Way to go out on a limb, Blue Forest is 3/1 on the M/L with the nearly unbeatable Saratoga connection of Velazquez/Pletcher behind her. Plus, she’s a likely pace-setter (or at least pace-pusher) in a sprint. There’s a small part of us intrigued by 12/1 shot #4 Theschemeofthings, but she’s coming out of a $25k Maiden win at Mountaineer, which really isn’t all that special. Her workouts have been good though, and she’s run at Saratoga before, albeit last year. Then again, she’s never run on the turf before. We’re struggling, but keep coming back to Blue Forest as well. The Beyer ratings aren’t necessarily on top of this field, but you can’t argue results. A nice Maiden win, followed by a place in her next out in Allowance company reflects well on her. The big challenger might be #2B Storm a Brewing, who really could be entered to run only if this goes from the turf to the dirt. But as we mentioned, no rain/no switch.

6) The software picks a mid-priced horse in #8 Broad Hopes. 6/1 on the Morning Line, with Gary Stevens aboard. She’s worked out well lately, with top-notch practice runs on August 8th and July 13th. Plus, if you look two back at the Stakes she ran at Belmont, each quarter mile was run progressively faster. She lost, but placed to a pretty solid Argentinian turf runner. For our pick, we looked at the pace, which should be contested by a number of runners here. Although it doesn’t look like the pace will necessarily be overly hot for this distance and surface, we’re going to look to a horse that is capable of laying off the pace and closing fast. #5 Bright Abundance is that horse, and has both the closing capability along with the Beyer ratings (97/96/98 last three) we like. Broad Hopes could factor, but we like our pick better.

7) Another pass for CompuTrak, and with only six horses in the race that’s a pretty chickenshit attitude. On Beyer ratings alone, this is a two horse race. #5 Maytown is the deserved 2/1 favorite, and hung a 98 last race out at Churchill. He’ll also be up setting the pace with longshot #2 Louie Na’ssal. #4 Storm Legacy is a D.Wayne Lukas horse that’s coming off a nine month layoff, but hung a race-high 100 Beyer in a huge race back in October. If this horse is ready, he’ll factor. Stick with #5 though, you can’t argue with speed here.

8) CompuTrak suggests the #11 Plenty, which is all well and good if they’re moving this race off the turf due to rain. Thing is, it didn’t rain in Saratoga yesterday, and the weather looks pretty good today too. Throw that pick out. Take a peek at #9 Cloak of Vagueness. He’s got all the things you look for in this spot. Great last race (100 Beyer, closed from off the pace), good jockey (Edgar Prado), and a good sire (El Prado, an Irish turf winner). Oh, and he’s a grey too. Call us superstitious, but we love betting on greys if the numbers warrant. This horse is 4/1, and although it’s sexier to pick longshots, this is a consistent horse who has hung consistent results in good competition along the way.

9) Here’s a longshot pick from the software - #6 Sweet Tabitha at 12/1. Excuse us if we don’t buy this pick. The last two trip notes for this horse have read, “Set pace, tired” and “Chased 4 wide, tired.” The horse is a dog, throw her out the window. Frankly, all these horses suck. We’re completely underwhelmed. Look, though, at #4 Losin Suzin. The trainer is bringing her back after just seven days and a disastrous try on the turf. She’s capable on the main track at this distance, and sometimes what looks odd on paper is actually all part of a trainer’s plot to get a horse ready to move forward. It’s all we can come up with here, so we’ll roll with it. 6/1 on the M/L, so don’t go all nuts at the window following our advice on this one.

We’ll keep you posted through the day as to the results from the Spa.

Saratoga [NYRA]
Saratoga Entries - Thursday, August 11 [Equibase]
Previously: Horse Racing: A Sucker For Technology [Oddjack]
Previously: Oddjack Expert: What the Hell Am I Betting On Here? [Oddjack]
Previously: Primer: Pretending You’re Not A Rookie At The Track [Oddjack]

Horse Racing: Leaving You Well Equipped For The Weekend

READ MORE: CompuTrak, CompuTrak Picks, Del Mar, Great Lakes Downs, Horse Racing

It was a good afternoon playing the CompuTrak picks yesterday. Our big winner was in the 5th at Del Mar, where #3 Marquet First paid $13.60 on the Win and $6 on the Place. We had $10 on each, for a $98 take. Unfortunately, our video via YouBet (our online race book) was choppy, and we never got a chance to see Marquet First cross the line. After a maddening three minutes of frozen video, we saw the win, did the fist pump, threw a bunch of imaginary high fives, and then realized that between our Saratoga and Del Mar gambling, that big score put us up a measly $16 for our day.

Whatever, we still rock. How about some more picks for your weekend? After the jump, that is…

Del Mar Friday, August 5th

1) CT Picks tags the #1 Tizadream at 12/1 on the Morning Line. No one else is close in their oddsline calculation either. Beware, however, of Patrick Valenzuela on #7 Yearly Attitude, a 7/2 M/L choice. We really hate ourselves every time we bet against Valenzuela on a respectable mount.
2) #3 Valley’s Passion is a 3/1 M/L CT Pick, and another solid favorite on the CompuTrak oddsline. Not a lot of obvious value in this race, as you’ve only got six horses to choose from, and only one north of 4/1 on the Morning Line. Anything above 5/2 on Valley’s Passion is probably very playable.
3) CT Picks #10 Elkton, who sports a 5/1 Morning Line. We’re worried about this one for the connections. You’ve got a Maiden race, an unknown jock in Isaias Enriquez, and a trainer who doesn’t jump out at us in Kevin Lewis. There’s very little scarier than having an unknown quantity steering your steed with $20 on the line, so be careful. We’ll still play, but will absolutely temper our expectations.
4) CT doesn’t pick anyone in particular, but we’ll suggest two. #6 Golivewithuky has got Tyler Baze aboard and has shown good early speed in the past. We like him in this Maiden race quite a bit. Don’t ignore #3 Blackjack Gambler either, as you’ve got Patrick Valenzuela on a low odds horse with a kickass name. That’s enough for us most of the time.
5) No picks made here either, and you can probably throw a dart and come up with a better strategy than we’ve got. The software shows #2 Valid Again as a good choice for early speed, but damned if we’re about to bet on a 10/1 mount under a jockey named “Freddy Fong.” We dig Asian porno as much as the next guy, and we can spot a stage name from a mile off “Freddy.”
6) The #8 Erik’s The Charm gets the CT love here, and at 15/1 we’re drooling. Back him up with the #1 Whata Soldier with Corey Nakatani aboard at 4/1, and we’re also looking at the #4 T.A. Thomas Alan at 30/1 to throw in for either an exacta, trifecta, or both.
7) CT won’t even guess at this one, and we can see why. The lowest five horses on the M/L odds list are bunched together in CT’s oddsline ratings, making this race one you should probably take a pass on.
8) We love horses whose names sound like surly alien beings. So, apparently, does the CT Picks portion of the program. Meet #9 Temblor, who is posted at a 12/1 Morning Line. I AM TEMBLOR! BOW DOWN TO MY SUPERIOR FORM AND ADAPTABLE PACE! The software also likes the #4 Beaut, who’s got a 20/1 M/L. Then again, the 4 hasn’t raced in almost 10 months, so play with a note of caution. Maybe mix her in the exotics, and be careful about outright Win or Place plays for that one.

Del Mar Saturday, August 6th

This is an early edition of the program, there were no M/L odds attached.

1) CT hedges its bets in a six horse race by pairing the #3 Reckless Hero and the #6 Turnbolt. All things being equal, you’ve got Victor Espinoza on Hero and David Flores on Turnbolt. Even though the software edges a bit towards Turnbolt, we like Reckless Hero just a bit better.
2) No bet here by the CT Pick, but if we’re chosing by name alone, we like Robert E, as we told you yesterday we like horses named Bob. Then again, the Isaias Enriquez corrollary from above comes into play with Robert E, so we’re probably full of shit on this one.
3) When exactly did John Cusack become uncool? America’s Sweethearts? Regardless, the CT Pick is the #6 Cusack, which we hope is named for enjoyably goofy character actor Joan, and not her sell-out brother. We begrudgingly admit this horse is being directed by Tony Farina, who is up against names like Valenzuela, Nakatani, Baze, Espinoza, Douglas, and Court in this one. Ugh.
4) CT doesn’t seem to like much of anything in this race, but has tagged #5 Jewels of Bagdad as an oddsline look. At least she’s got Tyler Baze aboard.
5) Great name, hopefully a good CT Pick for #2 Yodelen Dan. Since we know a guy named Dan, all we need to do is get him to yodel sometime before post on Saturday, and we can’t lose this one.
6) #5 Trident House is the CT Pick, although #2 Love That Song and #8 Pinkhair are both comparably rated on the oddsline.
7) Maiden race CT pick here is #7 Proud Cecy. Tyler Baze aboard, and that alone is a positive sign for this 2 year-old race.
8) CT doesn’t seem to want to go out on a limb for any of these filly sprinters in the Sorrento Stakes. the #4 Diplomat Lady might be worth a look, but don’t ignore the very aptly misogynistically named #3 Hystericalady with Valenzuela steering her from the saddle. This is a GIII for two year-olds, so if you’re handicapping pay extra special attention to the workouts coming into the race. Past performance data won’t be extensive.
9) CT likes the #3 Replacement, but rates #8 Pepper Trail close. Of course, we’ve got another shitty jockey scenario with #8. Omar Berrio is aboard, and if we haven’t heard of him, he must be an illegal immigrant. Can we get INS to replace him with Tyler Baze?
10) CT picks grabs #9 Fire Wood in this turf mile. As is always the case with turf races, if they aren’t running on the grass that day (after a heavy rain, for instance), pay attention to the alternate entries who step in for main track (dirt) racing. You’ll see a lot of scratches from the main group, so be aware of who’s running.

Great Lakes Downs Saturday, August 6th

1) Only six in the opener on Saturday’s card, and we’re a little upset the software picked #2 Time Lock at 10/1 and #4 Neent at 7/2, as they’ve got low rent riders Tim Jessup and Jose Delgado aboard respectively. We keep an eye on GLD’s racing, and absolutely hate betting against T.D. Houghton.
2) No picks here, and the Houghton mount (#2, Callya Later) is a TEN YEAR OLD horse. Oy. We’ll take a pass on this one.
3) No picks by the software here either, and we’ll look to take a pass too.
4) CT takes a look at #7 M L’s Star, with a M/L of 8/1. 20/1 Morning Line #10 Ceecil might be worth a play too, as CT likes him pretty close. Don’t ignore 7/2 pick All About Dave either, this horse has had some success here in the recent past.
5) #2 Island Peak is picked out of this six horse race by CT Picks. He’s at 3/1 on the Morning Line, but watch #3 O.B. Quiet under T.D. Houghton. He’s a known quantity, and capable in this spot.
6) No CT Pick, and we’re always hesitant in these Maiden races that feature four year-old horses. Most of the time, these older Maidens have made a whole career of ninth-best finishes.
7) No CT Pick here either, but we like the 5/2 #3 Lost Her Tune for the Houghton/Robert Gorham connection. Plus, she’s one of the younger horses in this Allowance race, which we see as a good sign of her talent.
8) CT Picks #4 Life Sayver, who is listed at 5/2. We also like #6 Whozoominwho at 4/1 as another GLD veteran with a shot.
9) #3 So Help Me is the 5/2 CT Pick, pair that one with similarly valued #7 Cherry Pie at 25/1. Especially if you’re a Warrant fan.

Louisiana Downs Saturday, August 6th

1) Like playing the chalk? Then follow CT with their pick of #2 Grassy Strip at 9/5. We giggle at $2 bets on horses like this, gotta crack some eggs to make some money kids.
2) CT Picks #7 Von Braun, who’s got a 7/2 Morning Line, a capable jockey in Gerard Melancon, and is a Steve Asmussen trainee. What’s there not to like?
3) We love longshots, and CT Picks #2 Caroline’s Finest in this Maiden race at 20/1. We suggest pairing with #4 Louisiana Rebel at 20/1 and probably #10 Dr Huck at 7/2 as well. We’re not sure we fully trust CT Picks in these Maiden races, as there’s not a ton of data to pull and dissect for most of these horses, but we can’t resist a 20/1 shot either.
4) Know someone named Brad? If so, CT has a pick for you: #5 Brad’s Brat at 3/1, who we suggest pairing with the #3 The Gooch at 15/1.
5) #9 Gentilly is the 3/2 CT Pick, and of course reminds us of the wonderful work done by Jennifer Tilly in movies like Embrace of the Vampire. Look to pair with #8 Lexington Lass, a 6/1 shot that can hopefully help you get paid off on an exacta.
6) Another CT chalk pick with 2/1 I’m Catty racing representing the #8. We’re not that excited.
7) CT’s got no idea on this one, but if you’re going to press us, take a look at 12/1 M/L #2 Just Plain Vanilla with #6 8/1 Angel of Choice. And don’t say we never gave you anything.
8) Damned if we don’t get giggly when CT Picks tosses us a terrifically named horse we can root for. Witness the #7 Butter Head at 5/2, and watch us scream “Go Butter Head!” all the way down the stretch. The next two on the CT oddsline are #1 Miss Foxy Slew and the #8 Kira’s Kat, both of whom are at 20/1 on the M/L. Mix them in your exotics.
9) CT won’t wager a guess, but their oddsline calculates the #6 Son of a Lue as a significant favorite. Anywhere near the M/L of 7/2 is probably good value.
10) CT Picks #8 My Elle Prada at 6/1, and we are thrilled to give this horse a shot. The #7 Ready To Live is also 6/1, and seems to carry similar ratings. Keep in mind what we said about turf races above though. If this one goes to the dirt, we’re not laying cash on either of these picks.
11) CT picks 9/2 M/L #9 Call Me Bobby, proving once again all horses named Bob kick ass.

Good luck this weekend, we’ll see you in the first class cabin on the way to Vegas on Monday if all of these work out.

Del Mar Entries - Friday, August 5th [Equibase]
Del Mar Entries - Saturday, August 6th [Equibase]
Great Lakes Downs Entries - Saturday, August 6th [Equibase]
Louisiana Downs Entries - Saturday, August 6th [Equibase]
Previously: Horse Racing: There’s Still Room On The Gravy Train [Oddjack]
Previously: Horse Racing: A Sucker For Technology [Oddjack]