Del Mar - Oddjack

Horse Racing: Why You Need To Skip The Palomar

Horse Racing: You Now Have Plans On Sunday

Horse Racing: Leaving You Well Equipped For The Weekend

READ MORE: CompuTrak, CompuTrak Picks, Del Mar, Great Lakes Downs, Horse Racing

It was a good afternoon playing the CompuTrak picks yesterday. Our big winner was in the 5th at Del Mar, where #3 Marquet First paid $13.60 on the Win and $6 on the Place. We had $10 on each, for a $98 take. Unfortunately, our video via YouBet (our online race book) was choppy, and we never got a chance to see Marquet First cross the line. After a maddening three minutes of frozen video, we saw the win, did the fist pump, threw a bunch of imaginary high fives, and then realized that between our Saratoga and Del Mar gambling, that big score put us up a measly $16 for our day.

Whatever, we still rock. How about some more picks for your weekend? After the jump, that is…

Del Mar Friday, August 5th

1) CT Picks tags the #1 Tizadream at 12/1 on the Morning Line. No one else is close in their oddsline calculation either. Beware, however, of Patrick Valenzuela on #7 Yearly Attitude, a 7/2 M/L choice. We really hate ourselves every time we bet against Valenzuela on a respectable mount.
2) #3 Valley’s Passion is a 3/1 M/L CT Pick, and another solid favorite on the CompuTrak oddsline. Not a lot of obvious value in this race, as you’ve only got six horses to choose from, and only one north of 4/1 on the Morning Line. Anything above 5/2 on Valley’s Passion is probably very playable.
3) CT Picks #10 Elkton, who sports a 5/1 Morning Line. We’re worried about this one for the connections. You’ve got a Maiden race, an unknown jock in Isaias Enriquez, and a trainer who doesn’t jump out at us in Kevin Lewis. There’s very little scarier than having an unknown quantity steering your steed with $20 on the line, so be careful. We’ll still play, but will absolutely temper our expectations.
4) CT doesn’t pick anyone in particular, but we’ll suggest two. #6 Golivewithuky has got Tyler Baze aboard and has shown good early speed in the past. We like him in this Maiden race quite a bit. Don’t ignore #3 Blackjack Gambler either, as you’ve got Patrick Valenzuela on a low odds horse with a kickass name. That’s enough for us most of the time.
5) No picks made here either, and you can probably throw a dart and come up with a better strategy than we’ve got. The software shows #2 Valid Again as a good choice for early speed, but damned if we’re about to bet on a 10/1 mount under a jockey named “Freddy Fong.” We dig Asian porno as much as the next guy, and we can spot a stage name from a mile off “Freddy.”
6) The #8 Erik’s The Charm gets the CT love here, and at 15/1 we’re drooling. Back him up with the #1 Whata Soldier with Corey Nakatani aboard at 4/1, and we’re also looking at the #4 T.A. Thomas Alan at 30/1 to throw in for either an exacta, trifecta, or both.
7) CT won’t even guess at this one, and we can see why. The lowest five horses on the M/L odds list are bunched together in CT’s oddsline ratings, making this race one you should probably take a pass on.
8) We love horses whose names sound like surly alien beings. So, apparently, does the CT Picks portion of the program. Meet #9 Temblor, who is posted at a 12/1 Morning Line. I AM TEMBLOR! BOW DOWN TO MY SUPERIOR FORM AND ADAPTABLE PACE! The software also likes the #4 Beaut, who’s got a 20/1 M/L. Then again, the 4 hasn’t raced in almost 10 months, so play with a note of caution. Maybe mix her in the exotics, and be careful about outright Win or Place plays for that one.

Del Mar Saturday, August 6th

This is an early edition of the program, there were no M/L odds attached.

1) CT hedges its bets in a six horse race by pairing the #3 Reckless Hero and the #6 Turnbolt. All things being equal, you’ve got Victor Espinoza on Hero and David Flores on Turnbolt. Even though the software edges a bit towards Turnbolt, we like Reckless Hero just a bit better.
2) No bet here by the CT Pick, but if we’re chosing by name alone, we like Robert E, as we told you yesterday we like horses named Bob. Then again, the Isaias Enriquez corrollary from above comes into play with Robert E, so we’re probably full of shit on this one.
3) When exactly did John Cusack become uncool? America’s Sweethearts? Regardless, the CT Pick is the #6 Cusack, which we hope is named for enjoyably goofy character actor Joan, and not her sell-out brother. We begrudgingly admit this horse is being directed by Tony Farina, who is up against names like Valenzuela, Nakatani, Baze, Espinoza, Douglas, and Court in this one. Ugh.
4) CT doesn’t seem to like much of anything in this race, but has tagged #5 Jewels of Bagdad as an oddsline look. At least she’s got Tyler Baze aboard.
5) Great name, hopefully a good CT Pick for #2 Yodelen Dan. Since we know a guy named Dan, all we need to do is get him to yodel sometime before post on Saturday, and we can’t lose this one.
6) #5 Trident House is the CT Pick, although #2 Love That Song and #8 Pinkhair are both comparably rated on the oddsline.
7) Maiden race CT pick here is #7 Proud Cecy. Tyler Baze aboard, and that alone is a positive sign for this 2 year-old race.
8) CT doesn’t seem to want to go out on a limb for any of these filly sprinters in the Sorrento Stakes. the #4 Diplomat Lady might be worth a look, but don’t ignore the very aptly misogynistically named #3 Hystericalady with Valenzuela steering her from the saddle. This is a GIII for two year-olds, so if you’re handicapping pay extra special attention to the workouts coming into the race. Past performance data won’t be extensive.
9) CT likes the #3 Replacement, but rates #8 Pepper Trail close. Of course, we’ve got another shitty jockey scenario with #8. Omar Berrio is aboard, and if we haven’t heard of him, he must be an illegal immigrant. Can we get INS to replace him with Tyler Baze?
10) CT picks grabs #9 Fire Wood in this turf mile. As is always the case with turf races, if they aren’t running on the grass that day (after a heavy rain, for instance), pay attention to the alternate entries who step in for main track (dirt) racing. You’ll see a lot of scratches from the main group, so be aware of who’s running.

Great Lakes Downs Saturday, August 6th

1) Only six in the opener on Saturday’s card, and we’re a little upset the software picked #2 Time Lock at 10/1 and #4 Neent at 7/2, as they’ve got low rent riders Tim Jessup and Jose Delgado aboard respectively. We keep an eye on GLD’s racing, and absolutely hate betting against T.D. Houghton.
2) No picks here, and the Houghton mount (#2, Callya Later) is a TEN YEAR OLD horse. Oy. We’ll take a pass on this one.
3) No picks by the software here either, and we’ll look to take a pass too.
4) CT takes a look at #7 M L’s Star, with a M/L of 8/1. 20/1 Morning Line #10 Ceecil might be worth a play too, as CT likes him pretty close. Don’t ignore 7/2 pick All About Dave either, this horse has had some success here in the recent past.
5) #2 Island Peak is picked out of this six horse race by CT Picks. He’s at 3/1 on the Morning Line, but watch #3 O.B. Quiet under T.D. Houghton. He’s a known quantity, and capable in this spot.
6) No CT Pick, and we’re always hesitant in these Maiden races that feature four year-old horses. Most of the time, these older Maidens have made a whole career of ninth-best finishes.
7) No CT Pick here either, but we like the 5/2 #3 Lost Her Tune for the Houghton/Robert Gorham connection. Plus, she’s one of the younger horses in this Allowance race, which we see as a good sign of her talent.
8) CT Picks #4 Life Sayver, who is listed at 5/2. We also like #6 Whozoominwho at 4/1 as another GLD veteran with a shot.
9) #3 So Help Me is the 5/2 CT Pick, pair that one with similarly valued #7 Cherry Pie at 25/1. Especially if you’re a Warrant fan.

Louisiana Downs Saturday, August 6th

1) Like playing the chalk? Then follow CT with their pick of #2 Grassy Strip at 9/5. We giggle at $2 bets on horses like this, gotta crack some eggs to make some money kids.
2) CT Picks #7 Von Braun, who’s got a 7/2 Morning Line, a capable jockey in Gerard Melancon, and is a Steve Asmussen trainee. What’s there not to like?
3) We love longshots, and CT Picks #2 Caroline’s Finest in this Maiden race at 20/1. We suggest pairing with #4 Louisiana Rebel at 20/1 and probably #10 Dr Huck at 7/2 as well. We’re not sure we fully trust CT Picks in these Maiden races, as there’s not a ton of data to pull and dissect for most of these horses, but we can’t resist a 20/1 shot either.
4) Know someone named Brad? If so, CT has a pick for you: #5 Brad’s Brat at 3/1, who we suggest pairing with the #3 The Gooch at 15/1.
5) #9 Gentilly is the 3/2 CT Pick, and of course reminds us of the wonderful work done by Jennifer Tilly in movies like Embrace of the Vampire. Look to pair with #8 Lexington Lass, a 6/1 shot that can hopefully help you get paid off on an exacta.
6) Another CT chalk pick with 2/1 I’m Catty racing representing the #8. We’re not that excited.
7) CT’s got no idea on this one, but if you’re going to press us, take a look at 12/1 M/L #2 Just Plain Vanilla with #6 8/1 Angel of Choice. And don’t say we never gave you anything.
8) Damned if we don’t get giggly when CT Picks tosses us a terrifically named horse we can root for. Witness the #7 Butter Head at 5/2, and watch us scream “Go Butter Head!” all the way down the stretch. The next two on the CT oddsline are #1 Miss Foxy Slew and the #8 Kira’s Kat, both of whom are at 20/1 on the M/L. Mix them in your exotics.
9) CT won’t wager a guess, but their oddsline calculates the #6 Son of a Lue as a significant favorite. Anywhere near the M/L of 7/2 is probably good value.
10) CT Picks #8 My Elle Prada at 6/1, and we are thrilled to give this horse a shot. The #7 Ready To Live is also 6/1, and seems to carry similar ratings. Keep in mind what we said about turf races above though. If this one goes to the dirt, we’re not laying cash on either of these picks.
11) CT picks 9/2 M/L #9 Call Me Bobby, proving once again all horses named Bob kick ass.

Good luck this weekend, we’ll see you in the first class cabin on the way to Vegas on Monday if all of these work out.

Del Mar Entries - Friday, August 5th [Equibase]
Del Mar Entries - Saturday, August 6th [Equibase]
Great Lakes Downs Entries - Saturday, August 6th [Equibase]
Louisiana Downs Entries - Saturday, August 6th [Equibase]
Previously: Horse Racing: There’s Still Room On The Gravy Train [Oddjack]
Previously: Horse Racing: A Sucker For Technology [Oddjack]

Horse Racing: There’s Still Room On The Gravy Train

READ MORE: CompuTrak, CompuTrak Picks, Del Mar, Horse Racing, Saratoga

We heart CompuTrak. Since we started our run using the handicapping software, we’re up $129 on the picks. Since we heart our readers too, we’re going to give you three more cards worth of picks from the software, starting with Saratoga and Del Mar today, and running through the Spa program for Friday as well.

We’ll also throw in a tip or two for maximizing your profits, after the jump of course…

JUST SO WE CAN SAY “WE TOLD YOU SO” LATER

Before we jump into the CT Picks, we’ve got a good tip for structuring your bets on these selections. First, if you’re going to play a pick that’s sitting at 5/1 or higher on the board, there’s a significant possibility that the Place pool will return $4 or more on a $2 bet if the horse wins or places. As a result, always back up your higher odds picks with a Place bet. Show bets are for losers, since they rarely return more than $4 unless the odds on the horse are egregiously high. Stay away from that bet, unless you’re putting huge cash on the horse and don’t mind multiplying a $.60 profit out by a factor of 25 for a $50 wager.

Also, we know there’s a mentality out there (that we’re often guilty of as well) that ignores horses at low odds like 5/2 and 3/1, even if all the info is there to show you’re getting good value on your bet. If you like the horse, and the price isn’t significantly low (8/5 or 1/9 for instance), put your bet down. If the horse you like wins at 3/1 and you didn’t bet it, you’re looking at a Win pool payout of $8. You don’t like tripling up?

On that note too, be careful with bankroll management. Chasing the dream by putting big money on the longshots while tossing only a couple of bones on the low odds horses might pay off for you at some point, but low odds horses have low odds for a reason - they’re more likely to pay you off. Think about how you’re structuring your bets, and maybe be content to take a $38 payout on an 18/1 ($2 bet), while taking a similar $35 payout on a 5/2 winner ($10 bet).

On to the picks…

Saratoga Thursday 8/4/05

1) No CT Pick, but we’ll look at the #6 Mombo Loco, even without the benefit of recently injured jockey Rafael Bejarano on board.
2) No CT Pick here either, and there are too many first time starters to generate good numbers. If we’re picking just by name, we’ll take Cat de Jour, which means “Cat of the Day, sir.” Sounds delicious.
3) CT likes the #4 Sir Ray. He’s an 8/1 Morning Line horse, which ties him for worst M/L on the board. This could be one to watch, as those odds could continue to edge north up to post time.
4) The #10 Fast Deal is the CT Pick, and comes with a 12/1 M/L tag. Play this one with caution, it is a Maiden race with a few first time starters. That being said, this is a D. Wayne Lukas trainee, so you got that going for you.
5) Another Maiden race, and another sincere lack of past performance data to play with. No pick, unless you want to play the name game with #4 Jetastik, who has uber-jock John Velazquez aboard.
6) CT Picks likes the #2 Grumman, a Kentucky-bred D. Wayne Lukas horse. At a M/L of 15/1, we kinda dig him too. Toss in the #7 Polo Grounds at 5/1 for exacta purposes too. The numbers seem to drop off for the rest of the field.
7) Despite two “name” horses in this field (Evening Attire and New York Hero), CT Picks likes the #6 Cherokee Spook, who has a 6/1 Morning Line. Also worth a look is #2 Trapped Again under Edgar Prado. He’s entered at 5/1 in this field.
8) The only stakes race on the card, and CT can’t find a pick it likes. No worries though, it’s a short field with two significant favorites (Karakorum Splendor and Dynamo Hum), so you’re not likely to see this as a moneymaking opportunity.
9) No CT Pick here either, but the software sends a lukewarm pick on its oddsline to #8 Absolutely Joe, who has a 30/1 M/L it likes at around 9/2 instead. May be worth a look, especially if you know someone named Joe who’s really, really lucky.

Del Mar Thursday 8/4/05

1) No CT Pick here, and with only five entries, this doesn’t exactly promise to be a great betting race.
2) Two 4/1 horses share the CT Pick in this spot - #2 The Missle Came and #3 National Honor. The former features the connection of Baffert-Espinoza, and the latter Walsh-Gomez. That’s like choosing between Manning-Harrison or Grossman-Gage. Guess where our money’s going? That’s right, on the exacta.
3) No CT Pick, but take a peek at #4 Miss Bobbie Quick at M/L of 8/1. CT likes her a lot lower in their odds calculation, and we always bet on horses named “Bob” anyway. Take our advice, you won’t find that gem in any handicapping book.
4) Weird… How about a CT Pick at 8/1 named Cozy Bob for your gambling pleasure? We’d be putting money on this one for the name alone, but if the software digs it, we dig it too.
5) CT Picks throws up a best bet here in #3 Marquet First. Their oddsline throws out the 6/1 M/L and calibrates their pick at 7/5. The next pick on their board clocks in at 5/1. Don’t crowd the windows on this one, we saw her first.
6) Another dual CT Pick, with #4 Song Sung Gold channeling Neil Diamond at 2/1, but a beautifully named filly called Eight The Hardway in the #7 silks has a 20/1 M/L and garners a CT Pick here too.
7) No picks, and another five horse race means you can take a break from betting for about 40 minutes and get a hot dog. Enjoy.
8) CT Picks identifies the #9 Guadaira as the pick with a 15/1 M/L. In this case, we’re skeptical. The horse is Irish bred and running a dirt route. Most of those Euro-breds are descended from route runners, but on the turf. Take a look at the past performances before tripping over yourself to get to the window on this one. If she’s been running mainly on the grass, throw this one out the window and bet on #4 Raisedonroyalty under Patrick Valenzuela instead.

Saratoga Friday 8/5/05

1) No CT Pick in the leadoff Maiden race, so we’ll pass. Never hurts to follow the chalk in these races, and that’s likely to be Win Early under Ramon Dominguez.
2) Another Maiden race, but CT Picks likes the #1 West Coast in this spot. Morning Line of 8/1, but is a paired entry with 1a Eye For Style. If it rains all night at the Spa, Eye for Style runs on the dirt. If it stays dry, West Coast takes a route on the turf. Keep your eyes on this one.
3) CT Picks #3 Dance Daily at 6/1. Jump all over this one, as the race has only five participants, and anything you can get over 5/1 for this horse in this spot will be an excellent play.
4) Another Maiden race, another race ignored by CompuTrak.
5) #7 Glasgow gets the CT Picks support in this spot. Maiden races don’t get us all that excited though.
6) CT looks at the second pick on the board, #7 Second in Command at 3/1 in this race. There are three other horses in the low-odds neighborhood in this race, so with any luck you’ll get a better price than that by post time.
7) The #1 Wild Vicar is the CT Picks best bet on the card. He’s running with a M/L of 6/1 and that’s going to be a tough pick to pass up.
8) Talk about not being able to make your mind up - for the Honorable Miss H. stakes, a GII on Friday’s card, the software makes two horses its CT Pick. Thankfully, that would be the #3 Umpateedle and the #7 High Peaks, who both carry a 15/1 M/L. You can be rest assured we’ll have cash on this race tomorrow.
9) Rounding out the card is the CT Pick #6 Reunited… Although 3/1 doesn’t exactly “feel so good” as a longshot opportunity.

Thursday 8/4/05 Saratoga Entries [Equibase]
Thursday 8/4/05 Del Mar Entries [Equibase]
Friday 8/5/05 Saratoga Entries [Equibase]
Previously: Horse Racing: Still Making Money [Oddjack]
Previously: Horse Racing: A Sucker For Technology [Oddjack]