ESPN Insider Mugging: After the All-Star Break Fantasy Planning

filed under Fantasy : Baseball

ESPN Insider’s Eric Karabell will take some time out from his usual Tuesday night of bird-dogging chicks and getting into fights in biker bars and, instead, will watch the Major League Baseball All-Star Game. What else is a fantasy nerd to do when there is no real service they can provide this evening? Of course, he could start breaking down his top five tight ends for the upcoming football season, but everybody needs downtime. Today’s Karablog was stolen with the intention of giving us all a good primer about what to do in the second half of the season with our team. After the jump, read the fantasy Frodo’s ruminations.

Those born in mangers, can go here.

Things to Do Today
Things you’ve gotta do today: Fill the car with gas, stop at the cleaners, cut my corner guy for Chris Shelton, pick up the kids from camp, trade Roy Halladay for immediate return, mow the lawn, take out the trash, scan the free-agent listings for a catcher better than Ryan Doumit, walk the dog.
OK, I made some of those up. Actually, I made ‘em all up, except the things that affect fantasy baseball. And, well, I did take out the trash.

There aren’t any games to watch today, nothing that affects your fantasy team — don’t forget to watch Hee Seop Choi in the home run hitting contest! — but that doesn’t mean the All-Star break is a time for ignoring your team. Here are some things you could do as you enjoy a few nights off from Vinny Castilla 0-fers, Luke Hudson poundings, more incessant Danys Baez trade rumors and whatever else drives you nuts on game nights.

1. Check the standings: Seems obvious, but really go through them this time, rather than assume if you’re third, moving to second is no big deal. If you’re winning, you have even more reason to look closely than if you’re in 10th. I’ve got a league in which I’ve been winning by 30 points for two months, but I’ve been watching the standings closer, as my team suffers a few hiccups and others pick up ground, and now the lead is 15. And it can keep dropping. Look at where you are in the categories, and if you can gain or solidify your position. The standings don’t always tell the story. Analyze them for more direction.

2. Trade for needs: Keeping with the point on the standings, don’t trade for Manny Ramirez if you’ve got the best offense in the league and need pitching. I watched a month ago as a guy in a league dealt for Jim Thome - despite not needing power — and sent off Carlos Zambrano — despite having a pitching staff built around Kenny Rogers and Tim Hudson. Now his team is in the tank. If you can gain five spots in stolen bases, trade for Scott Podsednik. If you’re last in saves by 20, dealing for Chad Cordero is meaningless. See where you can actually pick up — and lose — points. Protect your RBI lead. Also, make sure you’re well aware when your league trade deadline is. In one of my important leagues the deadline matches the MLB one (July 30). In another it’s Sept. 1. In ESPN leagues the deadline is Friday, Aug. 19 at Noon ET.

3. Scan the free-agent lists: There are a few reasons for this. For one, even if you have loads of power, and don’t have any need for Jason Giambi, remove his name as an option for others to grab. You wanna lose a spot in RBI because the guy behind you in the standings signed Giambi? Also, signing Giambi might make one of your players expendable in a trade. Point is, it’s July, you’ve gotten a little lazy, but don’t stop looking for free agents — and free — help, even if it doesn’t directly help the squad. Trading for Giambi might not make sense, but if there’s no cost, why not?

4. Examine the stats: If you look at the season numbers for certain players, they might deceive you. Richard Hidalgo, Jorge Posada and Brandon Inge, for example, are not having the same success of late as, say, Todd Helton, Nick Swisher and Rafael Palmeiro. Juan Pierre has been much better over the last few weeks, giving his owners rays of hope that a 50-steal season could still happen. Joe Blanton has become valuable lately, but his season ERA looks ugly. So check the stats for trends on your players, and on other players you don’t have.

5. Make decisions on the unfortunate: At some point, Barry Bonds will not be able to make a difference in your season. OK, let’s be a little stronger. Even if Bonds returns in mid-August, which appears the earliest he could actually play, how much impact will it have? You’ve been holding on to the guy all season, turning down trade rumors. You need power, but assume he’ll give it to you. Don’t assume. Bonds’ health has impacted your season enough; move on and get what you need. I’m not advocating you drop or trade the guy, because if he comes back he’s better than any free agent you can find. But alter your expectations. Same goes with other injured folk: We don’t know when Milton Bradley will really return, or the recently broken Roy Halladay. What if Jim Thome just doesn’t hit at all this season? Don’t wait forever for these guys.

6. Relax a little: I admit it, I enjoy the All-Star break because we get a few days off from games. I love the games, love the box scores, but a day off doesn’t hurt. Now, you say I could have taken a day off a month ago. Well sure, but games still get played, and if you miss a night, you miss a lot, your league mates gain an advantage. Tonight, there’s no way a Matt Belisle gets discovered. When a big bat emerges, or a closer situation changes, that new guy gets scarfed up quick. Anyway, recharge the fantasy batteries during the next three days, while also getting your research in to improve your teams, and come back Thursday ready for the final 10 weeks. Because, no matter where you are in the standings, it can all change in two weeks.

Random Notes: I’ll discuss players to watch for the second half over the next few days, but here are some notes from the weekend. Great feedback from the Thursday and Friday Blogs, discussing Curt Schilling’s possible promotion to closer and Corey Patterson’s shocking demise to the minors. The Cubs/Patterson backers shouldn’t misunderstand me: A stint in the minors could make Patterson better, I guess, and certainly the Cubs won’t be any worse without him short term. I like Patterson. I just think he deserved better. … I made my moves this morning in an NL-only auction league, and that’s when it really hit home what happened to Corey: Have you ever had to reserve a $30 player in your league because he was demoted? Injured, sure. But demoted? … More Cubs: rookie Adam Greenberg got his first ML at-bat Saturday, in the ninth inning, but it didn’t go well. Ordinary groundout? Nope, he got drilled in the head. Maybe Corey is safer in the minors. … Chris Reitsma got drilled by a line drive in the ribs, and there are rumors he might have to miss some time. … Dan Kolb hasn’t really pitched much better the last few weeks (6.75 ERA in June). … Don’t be surprised if Nick Johnson’s season takes a turn. If he comes back — yes, if — will he hit the same? I’m moving on without him. I’m amazed that Washington hasn’t. On Sunday, the Nats threw Carlos Baerga and Wil Cordero out to first base. Nice.

Yes, I actually was happy when Morgan Ensberg got named to the All-Star team Sunday. He deserves it with those stats. Scott Rolen’s been to All-Star games before. Not Ensberg. … In Tampa Bay — and I can’t believe I’m about to type this — rumors are that Joe Borowski is not only about to be signed, but if Danys Baez gets traded (which is about 98 percent guaranteed), he’d be the new closer. If you signed Chad Orvella, un-sign him. What a waste. Joe Borowski? Well, at least 29 other teams can see he’s ordinary. Sign him if you really need saves, but we’re going to rank him dead last in the Closer Report. Yep, even behind Mike MacDougal, Brian Bruney and Mitch Williams. … Meanwhile, Lou Piniella told the Tampa Tribune he thinks Travis Lee’s subpar production is due to Lee missing 2004 with a torn labrum. I disagree. It’s because Lee is a subpar run producer and always has been! … Look at Jorge Cantu’s power stats. Now look at Alfonso Soriano’s. Just throwing it out there. … The daily Elias Sports Bureau report on ESPN.com is a don’t miss: From today’s, and fantasy relevant, we learn that what Derrek Lee is doing is really unusual, Michael Young can’t stop getting extra base hits and Chris Capuano did something no other Brewer lefty had done since 1986.

Previously: ESPN Insider Dine-N-Dash [Oddjack]