Fantasy Baseball: Junior Redux?

TAGS: Fantasy: Baseball, Ken Griffey Jr

ESPN’s fantasy capadonna Tristan Cockroft dedicates his column to the rejuvenated studliness of Cincinnati Reds’ centerfielder Ken Griffey, Jr. and how to play him the second half of the season. Should we trade him in anticipation of the seemingly inevitable hamstring busting out the back of his pantleg injury? Or could should we be patient?

If Junior plays 150 games this year, here are his projected stats:

2005 pace: 151 G, .290 AVG, 35 HR, 107 RBI, .911 OPS, 166 H, 41 2B

Amazing. It’s 1994 again. We’re dusting off our Collective Soul records and mashing around in our Doc Martens as we speak.

Out of the Box: Junior’s Circuit Clout [ESPN]

ESPN Insider Gank: Bad Night For Preston Wilson Owners

TAGS: Fantasy: Baseball

Today’s ESPN Insider Karablog dilligently breaks down the Washington Nationals’ acquisition of gimpy Colorado Rockies’ centerfielder Preston Wilson and how it will impact those unfortunate fantasy owners that actually consider him a legitimate outfielder. Of course, resident fantasy bubble boy Eric Karabell has flared up his Carpal Tunnel Syndrome writing about it on his paid blog. But we’re VIPs at Oddjack and we don’t pay for shee-it. You don’t have to either, after the jump. But if you’re a Mormon, click here.

Big Night of MLB Trading

You know, for some, Wednesday night wasn’t easy. It was the last night of the baseball season in which there won’t be games. What is there for a fantasy baseball player to do if there’s no baseball? I mean, how much Mariska Hargitay on “Law & Order: SVU” can one person watch? OK, don’t answer that. It wasn’t such a tough night after all.
But it wasn’t just difficult for those who can’t go a night sans the national pastime. If you own Preston Wilson on your fantasy team, well, you’ve had better nights. So thanks to the Nationals, Rockies, A’s and Red Sox, we’ve got something to discuss. So let’s.

What the Nats did for fantasy: Kudos to Washington for finally unloading a pitcher it didn’t want (Zach Day, and now you don’t ever want him, either) for a legit power hitter. I have to admit, how a first-place team can keep winning with a Carlos Baerga/Wil Cordero platoon not only at first base but hitting cleanup is a mystery to me. Look for Brad Wilkerson to don the first baseman’s glove and Preston Wilson to roam in center and protect Jose Guillen in the order. Wilson did have 15 home runs for the Rocks, but — and didn’t you know a “but” was coming — as with every Rockie, the home/road splits tell the ugly story. Wilson had 10 of his 15 homers at home, got 34 of his 47 RBI there and hit .281 at Coors Field, only .224 on the road. Check out what current Nat Vinny Castilla did last year at Coors and his current underwhelming stats.

But it’s even worse than that. Wilson was only hitting left-handed pitching, and there’s less of it in the NL East. And ask us how RFK Stadium is for hitters. Go ahead. The Nationals don’t score runs, and by this point of the season we know the park can be blamed for some of this. The Park Factor index tells us that only two places are tougher to score in, San Diego and, for some odd reason, Baltimore. Jose Guillen has 18 home runs this season. Only one has come at home. His slugging percentage is .677 on the road, .350 at home. I think this tells us a lot. You don’t really want Wilson now in fantasy. He’ll hit a bit, but combined with his nasty injury history, it’s hard to predict success here. Wilson has never batted at RFK. Don’t trade for him.

The Wilson trade, combined with the team activating Ryan Church off the DL, also signals a return to bench duty for Marlon Byrd, who wasn’t hitting much anyway. If Nick Johnson ever comes off the DL, then Wilkerson would play left field and Church, who has had a nice season, would have to sit. Don’t be upset if you have Church in keeper leagues, however. Wilson is a free agent come October. And the news on the Johnson front is he’s out indefinitely. It’s possible Washington doesn’t expect his return very soon and that helped force this trade.

What the Rockies did: One might say losing Wilson hurts the guy hitting ahead of him in the batting order, Todd Helton. I’m not buying that. Helton’s having a bad season, and Wilson’s got nothing to do with it. (And Helton’s hot now — and again, not because of Wilson.) Colorado did acquire Eric Byrnes, and he should be an everyday outfielder, and possibly hit fourth or fifth. Byrnes might be more a fourth outfielder in real life. He only hits lefties (.329 vs. .218 against RHP), but the Coors effect helps him, especially since he’s a fly ball hitter. Spend more than a few bucks or a high waiver spot on him in NL-only leagues, and don’t be shocked if he shines. Byrnes went 20-73-17 last season in a pitcher’s park. He has speed. He has power. And he’s exactly the type of guy on a noncontending team who wants a big contract and makes a huge difference in fantasy. Don’t ignore him.

As for poor Day, treat him the same way you did Joe Kennedy, who was lucky enough to be traded to Oakland. You don’t want any Rockies pitcher except Brian Fuentes, the closer. Interestingly enough, you probably won’t want Fuentes when he’s traded, since he’s likely to stop earning save chances wherever he lands.

What the A’s did: Losing Byrnes isn’t a big deal to Oakland since the outfield was set without him with Mark Kotsay in center, and signed for a few more years; Nick Swisher clearly emerging as a power-OPS source in right; and walk machine Bobby Kielty manning left. The DH spot is crowded, with Erubiel Durazo returning soon and Scott Hatteberg losing first-base at-bats to Dan Johnson. So what does this mean for Jay Payton, acquired from Boston for injured reliever Chad Bradford? It means Payton, who complained about playing time, won’t be happy in Oakland. In fact, he should see fewer at-bats. He won’t platoon with Kielty because Kielty hits lefties far better. I think his best chance for playing time is as a defensive replacement. The theory that Payton would play center if Kotsay got dealt to the Yankees is over; Kotsay’s staying. You didn’t own Payton before, don’t start now.

Meanwhile, Kennedy might not be such a bad pitcher, but it’s tough to tell since he has been a Rockie and Devil Ray. Now he’s actually on a decent team, in a decent park. Problem is, he doesn’t have a rotation spot. Kennedy might be on the move again, or he will have to pitch out of the bullpen. I doubt Kirk Saarloos is losing his rotation spot over this trade (3.87 ERA, better than all A’s starters except Rich Harden). Jay Witasick will pitch in the seventh and eighth innings.

What the Red Sox did: Nothing pertaining to this trade. Bradford is a submariner — actually, some say he throws underhanded — and he doesn’t fit into the closer situation over Mike Timlin or this other guy, the one the team activated off the DL on Wednesday. What’s his name? Curt something?

Yes, Curt Schilling is now an active pitcher. He will pitch out of the bullpen this weekend against the Yankees and might even save games. It’s hard to project what will happen after that.

Wow, quite a night for trades. There will be more in the next few weeks. There will be more.

ESPN Insider Carjack: Karablog’s Top 10 Hitters to Watch in the Second Half

TAGS: Fantasy: Baseball

We have to give ESPN Insider’s Eric Karabell a lot of credit. It’s amazing to us that one person can devote so much time to baseball, baseball, baseball, and still have enough time to construct model airplanes and attend every Star Trek convention on the east coast. But, luckily for us, Karabell has yet to micro-manage his life and still puts up thousands of words daily about fantasy baseball strategy that(most of the time) proves useful. Today it’s his top ten bats to watch in the second half of the season. So, once again, we’ve cut and pasted the full members only ESPN column and offered it up for you Oddjack readers for free. After the big ol’ jump, natch.

Those of you still hoping for presents from Santa Claus can click here.

Ten Bats to Watch
You’ve got a few more nights to watch whatever you like, be it tonight’s All-Star Game or lots of Law & Order reruns, but on Thursday at 2:05 p.m. ET, Doug Davis will throw out the ceremonial first pitch of the second half of the MLB season to Brad Wilkerson, and it will be time to get started all over again.
Here are, in no particular order, 10 top-of-the-order hitters I am watching in the second half. Not necessarily the top bats, or even good ones, but interesting names.

• Mark Teixeira, Rangers: Really, we can play with the numbers to make them say whatever we want. You see people discuss hot players, but are they 5-for-10, hitting .400 for the last month, or just Derrek Lee? You never know. We do know that Teixeira has had a nice season, has 45 home runs since last year’s break, and is just a few long balls off the current ML lead. It’s not a stretch to say he’s good. I think Teixeira hits the most homers in the game from here on out and threatens to whack 50 overall.

• Chris Shelton, Tigers: I know we keep talking about him, but we have to. The guy can rake. Over the last month he’s got nearly an RBI per game and a .345 average and is ranked higher on the Player Rater than Teixeira, David Ortiz and all but 11 hitters in baseball. In the beginning when you saw him on free agency, you thought he was worth a look as a catcher. He’s worth a look at any spot, even first base. Nice job out of Detroit batting him third in the order ahead of bigger-name guys. I’m still waiting for the Mets to stop hitting David Wright seventh, behind Marlon Anderson.

• Kelly Johnson, Braves: Told you they’re not all big names. Give the Braves a lot of credit here. They stuck with a guy who had one hit in his first 30 at-bats. They kept hitting him second or third in the order. Johnson has nice plate discipline and gets on base. In the last week of games he scored six runs and raised his average 20 points. The best part: Due to an error beyond our control, Johnson, who originally came up as a shortstop, is eligible at that weak position in ESPN leagues — and he’s also SS eligible on a lot of other sites. Play him there and get a future .300 hitter.

• Jorge Cantu, Devil Rays: This guy is not only up for the long haul, but he’s the starting third baseman and No. 3 hitter (sometimes No. 4). Cantu has seven home runs in only 67 at-bats batting third. Adrian Beltre has eight homers in 288 at-bats there, Sean Casey three in 313 at-bats! OK, need a better perspective: The only players with a higher batting average than Cantu’s .343 as a No. 3 hitter are Derrek Lee, Vladimir Guerrero and Travis Hafner. You know Cantu’s good, but few second base eligibles have this much power.

• Lyle Overbay, Brewers: Now here’s another No. 3 hitter, but he’s really not a worthy one. Fantasy owners who banked on Overbay’s first half of 2004 being the real thing were wrong, as this guy is on pace for pedestrian first base stats of 20 homers, 75 RBI and 66 runs. Yuck. We could have waited 10 rounds later for Kevin Millar. Thing is, the Brewers keep hitting him there. With Prince Fielder seemingly ready (like the Phillies’ Ryan Howard) for everyday duty and first base being the only position he could possibly play, you’d think Overbay could be traded. If not, be careful that Fielder doesn’t play much of September, making Overbay a bench player.

• Howard, Phillies: I was at a Phils game over the weekend and Howard hit a ball over the center field fence in the eighth to tie the game. A few others times that weekend he went warning track. Like Fielder, Howard can hit for power. They’ll both strike out, of course, but power on the free agent wire is a beautiful thing. Will Howard even be on the Phillies in three weeks? Will he be in the minors, or on the Mariners, Devil Rays or some other squad planning for next season?

• Bobby Crosby, A’s: Simply put, is he this good? Heading into the season, I wondered how long it would take for him to stop whiffing pitches at a 150-K rate. Apparently, it didn’t take long. In 36 games he has 21 RBI, 29 runs and a pretty decent walk-strikeout rate. The only SS with more RBI in July is Khalil Greene. Clearly Crosby is seeing good pitches in the three spot in the lineup, and taking advantage. If he’s due for a Mike Cameron-like slump (Cammy hit .372 in May, .205 in the six weeks since) then Oakland will bat him seventh again, reducing his fantasy value. Watch this situation.

• Craig Biggio, Astros: Houston’s second baseman has settled in nicely as the No. 2 hitter — he should not have been hitting third — with a .321 average, eight homers and seven steals in that spot in the order. With Willy Taveras showing no signs of failure, and Lance Berkman and Morgan Ensberg slugging well, Biggio has played his best ball batting second. He is 39, but on pace for his best numbers since 2001. He shouldn’t be ignored, especially if this team stays in a pennant race.

• Matt Lawton, Pirates: This guy is actually having a nice season, on pace for 19 homers, 74 RBI and 19 stolen bases. He’s still available in about 5 percent of ESPN leagues, though, and he only got that percentage with being a popular addition over the last few weeks. The Pirates are likely to trade him — or at least discuss it — and on a contender Lawton would continue to hit, and score more runs. If he stays in Pittsburgh, as a 90-loss season approaches, it could hurt Lawton’s second-half stats. And sticking with the Bucs, don’t forget that Craig Wilson has 30-homer power, and just came off the DL. He has to play, so that might affect Daryle Ward, Rob Mackowiak and other Pirates, and could help force a Lawton trade.

• Bernie Williams/Jason Giambi, Yankees: Giambi’s turnaround has been written about on these and other ESPN pages recently, so I won’t dwell on it. But if his five home runs in the last week — half his season total — are a harbinger of good things, then he would have a significant fantasy impact. Williams, meanwhile, is also on pace for the worst numbers of his career, but with him at-bats are hardly guaranteed. We should point out that Williams hit 11 homers and knocked in 40 runs after the break last season, and it is possible the Yankees won’t trade for another center fielder. Just throwing it out there.

ESPN Insider Mugging: After the All-Star Break Fantasy Planning

TAGS: Fantasy: Baseball

ESPN Insider’s Eric Karabell will take some time out from his usual Tuesday night of bird-dogging chicks and getting into fights in biker bars and, instead, will watch the Major League Baseball All-Star Game. What else is a fantasy nerd to do when there is no real service they can provide this evening? Of course, he could start breaking down his top five tight ends for the upcoming football season, but everybody needs downtime. Today’s Karablog was stolen with the intention of giving us all a good primer about what to do in the second half of the season with our team. After the jump, read the fantasy Frodo’s ruminations.

Those born in mangers, can go here.

Things to Do Today
Things you’ve gotta do today: Fill the car with gas, stop at the cleaners, cut my corner guy for Chris Shelton, pick up the kids from camp, trade Roy Halladay for immediate return, mow the lawn, take out the trash, scan the free-agent listings for a catcher better than Ryan Doumit, walk the dog.
OK, I made some of those up. Actually, I made ‘em all up, except the things that affect fantasy baseball. And, well, I did take out the trash.

There aren’t any games to watch today, nothing that affects your fantasy team — don’t forget to watch Hee Seop Choi in the home run hitting contest! — but that doesn’t mean the All-Star break is a time for ignoring your team. Here are some things you could do as you enjoy a few nights off from Vinny Castilla 0-fers, Luke Hudson poundings, more incessant Danys Baez trade rumors and whatever else drives you nuts on game nights.

1. Check the standings: Seems obvious, but really go through them this time, rather than assume if you’re third, moving to second is no big deal. If you’re winning, you have even more reason to look closely than if you’re in 10th. I’ve got a league in which I’ve been winning by 30 points for two months, but I’ve been watching the standings closer, as my team suffers a few hiccups and others pick up ground, and now the lead is 15. And it can keep dropping. Look at where you are in the categories, and if you can gain or solidify your position. The standings don’t always tell the story. Analyze them for more direction.

2. Trade for needs: Keeping with the point on the standings, don’t trade for Manny Ramirez if you’ve got the best offense in the league and need pitching. I watched a month ago as a guy in a league dealt for Jim Thome - despite not needing power — and sent off Carlos Zambrano — despite having a pitching staff built around Kenny Rogers and Tim Hudson. Now his team is in the tank. If you can gain five spots in stolen bases, trade for Scott Podsednik. If you’re last in saves by 20, dealing for Chad Cordero is meaningless. See where you can actually pick up — and lose — points. Protect your RBI lead. Also, make sure you’re well aware when your league trade deadline is. In one of my important leagues the deadline matches the MLB one (July 30). In another it’s Sept. 1. In ESPN leagues the deadline is Friday, Aug. 19 at Noon ET.

3. Scan the free-agent lists: There are a few reasons for this. For one, even if you have loads of power, and don’t have any need for Jason Giambi, remove his name as an option for others to grab. You wanna lose a spot in RBI because the guy behind you in the standings signed Giambi? Also, signing Giambi might make one of your players expendable in a trade. Point is, it’s July, you’ve gotten a little lazy, but don’t stop looking for free agents — and free — help, even if it doesn’t directly help the squad. Trading for Giambi might not make sense, but if there’s no cost, why not?

4. Examine the stats: If you look at the season numbers for certain players, they might deceive you. Richard Hidalgo, Jorge Posada and Brandon Inge, for example, are not having the same success of late as, say, Todd Helton, Nick Swisher and Rafael Palmeiro. Juan Pierre has been much better over the last few weeks, giving his owners rays of hope that a 50-steal season could still happen. Joe Blanton has become valuable lately, but his season ERA looks ugly. So check the stats for trends on your players, and on other players you don’t have.

5. Make decisions on the unfortunate: At some point, Barry Bonds will not be able to make a difference in your season. OK, let’s be a little stronger. Even if Bonds returns in mid-August, which appears the earliest he could actually play, how much impact will it have? You’ve been holding on to the guy all season, turning down trade rumors. You need power, but assume he’ll give it to you. Don’t assume. Bonds’ health has impacted your season enough; move on and get what you need. I’m not advocating you drop or trade the guy, because if he comes back he’s better than any free agent you can find. But alter your expectations. Same goes with other injured folk: We don’t know when Milton Bradley will really return, or the recently broken Roy Halladay. What if Jim Thome just doesn’t hit at all this season? Don’t wait forever for these guys.

6. Relax a little: I admit it, I enjoy the All-Star break because we get a few days off from games. I love the games, love the box scores, but a day off doesn’t hurt. Now, you say I could have taken a day off a month ago. Well sure, but games still get played, and if you miss a night, you miss a lot, your league mates gain an advantage. Tonight, there’s no way a Matt Belisle gets discovered. When a big bat emerges, or a closer situation changes, that new guy gets scarfed up quick. Anyway, recharge the fantasy batteries during the next three days, while also getting your research in to improve your teams, and come back Thursday ready for the final 10 weeks. Because, no matter where you are in the standings, it can all change in two weeks.

Random Notes: I’ll discuss players to watch for the second half over the next few days, but here are some notes from the weekend. Great feedback from the Thursday and Friday Blogs, discussing Curt Schilling’s possible promotion to closer and Corey Patterson’s shocking demise to the minors. The Cubs/Patterson backers shouldn’t misunderstand me: A stint in the minors could make Patterson better, I guess, and certainly the Cubs won’t be any worse without him short term. I like Patterson. I just think he deserved better. … I made my moves this morning in an NL-only auction league, and that’s when it really hit home what happened to Corey: Have you ever had to reserve a $30 player in your league because he was demoted? Injured, sure. But demoted? … More Cubs: rookie Adam Greenberg got his first ML at-bat Saturday, in the ninth inning, but it didn’t go well. Ordinary groundout? Nope, he got drilled in the head. Maybe Corey is safer in the minors. … Chris Reitsma got drilled by a line drive in the ribs, and there are rumors he might have to miss some time. … Dan Kolb hasn’t really pitched much better the last few weeks (6.75 ERA in June). … Don’t be surprised if Nick Johnson’s season takes a turn. If he comes back — yes, if — will he hit the same? I’m moving on without him. I’m amazed that Washington hasn’t. On Sunday, the Nats threw Carlos Baerga and Wil Cordero out to first base. Nice.

Yes, I actually was happy when Morgan Ensberg got named to the All-Star team Sunday. He deserves it with those stats. Scott Rolen’s been to All-Star games before. Not Ensberg. … In Tampa Bay — and I can’t believe I’m about to type this — rumors are that Joe Borowski is not only about to be signed, but if Danys Baez gets traded (which is about 98 percent guaranteed), he’d be the new closer. If you signed Chad Orvella, un-sign him. What a waste. Joe Borowski? Well, at least 29 other teams can see he’s ordinary. Sign him if you really need saves, but we’re going to rank him dead last in the Closer Report. Yep, even behind Mike MacDougal, Brian Bruney and Mitch Williams. … Meanwhile, Lou Piniella told the Tampa Tribune he thinks Travis Lee’s subpar production is due to Lee missing 2004 with a torn labrum. I disagree. It’s because Lee is a subpar run producer and always has been! … Look at Jorge Cantu’s power stats. Now look at Alfonso Soriano’s. Just throwing it out there. … The daily Elias Sports Bureau report on ESPN.com is a don’t miss: From today’s, and fantasy relevant, we learn that what Derrek Lee is doing is really unusual, Michael Young can’t stop getting extra base hits and Chris Capuano did something no other Brewer lefty had done since 1986.

Previously: ESPN Insider Dine-N-Dash [Oddjack]

Fantasy Baseball: Jason Lives

TAGS: Fantasy: Baseball

In one of the most incomprehensible comebacks so far this year, it appears that New York Yankees’ first baseman and parasite chum Jason Giambi is finally adjusting to his new weight class and finding his stroke again. And now he’s the most added player in fantasy sports when for the past year and a half Giambi has been as valuable as a dung nickel. ESPN’s fantasy mojo rison Tristan Cockroft devoted his Out of the Box column to the Giambi and had these nice things to say about him:

There’s must be something about being a Yankee first baseman. Not two months after fellow pinstriper Tino Martinez hit 10 homers in a 12-game span, Jason Giambi is now in the midst of a similar unexpected hot streak. In the Yankees’ recent six-game homestand, which concluded on Sunday, Giambi batted .556 (10-for-18) with five homers and 10 RBI. Guess who leads the list of Most Added players in the past week? You guessed it; it’s Giambi, who has seen his ownership rise from 16.0 to 85.0 percent (69.0 increase). Maybe it seems like Giambi has only recently turned around what seemed like a lost season just two months ago, right around when Martinez was on such a tear. But keep in mind that it was during that west-coast swing to Oakland and Seattle, when Martinez was in the midst of the streak, that Yankees manager Joe Torre gave a vote of confidence to Giambi, who was practically kicked to the curb by the team’s fans and upper management. Remember that rumored demotion to Triple-A Columbus? What a motivational tool. Giambi has now played 42 games since Torre stood up for the veteran, and has batted .328 (42-for-128) with seven homers, 26 RBI and a .999 OPS during that span. What’s more, his .452 on-base percentage is second-highest since May 13, behind only Travis Hafner (.455).

Jason’s Resurrection [ESPN]

Today’s ESPN Insider Dine-N-Dash

TAGS: Fantasy: Baseball

Once again, we pluck the Karablog for our daily stolen item from ESPN Insider with the hopes of toppling its fantasy oligarchy. Today, the bird-chestedly handsome Karabell digs in deep to the Chicago Cubs demotion of once proud and mighty outfielder Corey Patterson. We know we’d like to find out what happened and how this will impact our team. And you would too.

Of course, if your soul is clean, go here and pay the toll. But, if not, after the jump ditch all the caramel kernels and head straight for the peanuts.

Corey’s Clueless Cubs

Yesterday, I wrote about the Red Sox and why Curt Schilling could succeed as a closer. Feedback from Red Sox fans was good, very positive.
Today, it’s time to write about another national, popular, sometimes cursed team and another interesting, controversial decision. Only this time the move is mystifying and I’m not as upbeat.

Every team, apparently, wants to be like the Braves. That makes sense; the last time Atlanta did NOT win its division B.J. Upton was starting kindergarten. So the Cubs got swept in a doubleheader last night in Atlanta, by a team with 10 rookies, and Dusty Baker, in his infinite wisdom, decided the smart thing to do was demote Corey Patterson to the minor leagues.

Sure, blame the 25-year-old speedster for your team being four games under .500. Was Patterson struggling? No doubt he was. He hit .157 in June, and was 3-for-18 so far in July. He’s not a leadoff hitter, despite Baker’s insistence on hitting him there, but he wasn’t much of a power hitter for the last six weeks either.

What I think happened here is Baker saw young Brave outfielder Jeff Francoeur smack a three-run homer in the eighth for his first major league hit and decided, well, we can do that! Let’s bring up some kids nobody knows! Look at the Braves: Kelly Johnson is turning into a nice player, and really has far better stats in OBP and slugging than Patterson (because he takes walks, which I’ll get to). Adam LaRoche shouldn’t be hitting fourth or fifth for anyone, but he’s on a 100-RBI pace anyway. How do they do it? Pete Orr and Brian McCann are hitting .300. Ryan Langerhans and Wilson Betemit are productive. Hey, we can do it, too!

But there are differences here. The Braves are using 10 rookies on their 25-man roster out of necessity. Chipper Jones and Brian Jordan are on the disabled list. Raul Mondesi was a joke. The middle infield, until recently, was underwhelming. Don’t ask about the pitching staff, with the 2, 3 and 4 starters all injured. The Braves, through all this, are a playoff team.

The Cubs, meanwhile, continue to make senseless moves with no apparent direction. This team’s problems appear to have been on the mound, with the injuries to Mark Prior and Kerry Wood and a shaky bullpen. At least that’s what gets blamed. Sure, that hasn’t helped. But this team’s losing because of its offense, because despite having a guy batting .377 in the middle of the order and being a legit triple crown threat, there’s nobody setting the table.

As always, some random thoughts:

• Patterson should never have been leading off in the first place, and that’s Baker’s fault. Who should have? Well, Jerry Hairston Jr., for as woefully average as he might be, does have a .367 on-base percentage. He walks a bit, and unlike Patterson, doesn’t strike out. As a team the Cubs have a .312 on-base percentage in the leadoff spot, and that stinks. In the NL only Florida and the Mets are worse, and when Juan Pierre starts to hit, the Marlins will score more runs. The Mets have realized the error of their Jose Reyes ways (and nobody’s sending HIM to the minors, despite his age). Hairston, in 36 games leading off, has a .384 OBP there. Just play him every day and lead him off. It appears that will happen now, but in center field. I would have chosen left field, now that Todd Walker is back to man second.

• Neifi Perez is not a good hitter. He’s tricked everyone, and his numbers are slipping, as expected. Not only have the Cubs not put people on base leading off, but their No. 2 hitters have a .286 OBP! Perez has a .314 OBP in 44 games hitting second. So the Cubs are 27th in the majors in leadoff OBP, and 29th in OBP for No. 2 hitters (only Pittsburgh is worse). Gee, Dusty, do you think this is why you don’t score runs?

• Derrek Lee, by the way, has 25 homers, 67 RBI and leads the bigs in slugging. Remember that season that Carlos Delgado nearly knocked in 100 runs by the break? Lee is actually getting cheated, big time. If he wins two-thirds of the triple crown but falls just short in RBI, he can blame Dusty. I just found this stat this morning, and it’s incredible. Look at the RBI leaders; they obviously get many chances to knock in runs, right? Well, not really. Lee has ONLY 119 at-bats with runners on base, which ranks him tied for 94th in baseball (Miguel Cabrera has 177 such at-bats). However, Lee has 67 RBI, only 10 off the ML lead and six behind NL leader Carlos Lee.

But look at how many more chances those guys get! The Cubs are cheating Lee. He should have about 100 RBI by now. I’ll list a few names who have more at-bats than Derrek Lee with runners on base: Cristian Guzman, Jason Phillips, Aaron Boone, Angel Berroa and every regular starter for the Red Sox except Jason Varitek, who’s only two AB back. Lee is hitting a crazy .370 with runners on; if he had the chances Edgar Renteria had with men on (Edgar’s fifth in baseball in AB with men on), and hit the same average, he actually would have 100 RBI by now.

But Lee doesn’t, because nobody is ever on base for him.

• The middle of the Cubs order, actually, has been quite potent. Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Jeromy Burnitz are each doing their jobs. Michael Barrett is fine at catcher, and actually could have made the All-Star team. Todd Hollandsworth gets picked on a lot, but he’s not embarrassing himself. He’s a fourth outfielder. Perez should be hitting eighth.

• What about the kids the Cubs called up to be their Kelly Johnsons? Adam Greenberg and Matt Murton are the new kids at Wrigley, but I don’t know if they’ll play. The Cubs also demoted Jason Dubois, for more obvious reasons. I’d think Baker, a noted favorite of veterans, will go with Hollandsworth in left and Hairston in center. Greenberg can play center field, but he hasn’t hit for much power. Murton has, but he was in Double-A. It’s a stretch to compare these fellas with Francoeur, a top prospect in Atlanta’s system. However, and we should give the Cubbies some credit here, each of these outfielders have plate discipline and speed. Just like Kelly Johnson. If either hits, they could stick and become fantasy relevant.

• So back to Patterson. What should the Cubs do with him? Well, Patterson’s biggest problem is making contact. He can be an electric player when he hits the ball, and of course he can run. Baker confused speed with being able to lead off. Patterson’s 83 strikeouts rank tied for fifth in baseball. The people ahead of him all hit for power, but they also walk. Mark Bellhorn leads in K’s, and he’s another problem, but at least he takes a walk and has his deficiencies hidden by the top scoring team in baseball. Richie Sexson, Adam Dunn and Brad Wilkerson also take walks and have power. Patterson had 16 walks in half a season; Only three players in the top 40 in strikeouts have fewer walks than that. Alfonso Soriano, a well-documented hacker who manages to overcome it, and Dallas McPherson and Angel Berroa, who can’t. McPherson will eventually walk, I think. He is just a rookie. Patterson isn’t, though he hits like it.

Why do we harp on walks so much, or the ability to avoid strikeouts? Put the ball in play more and good things happen occasionally. Errors get made. Runners get moved up. You get on by fielder’s choice and you can steal a base, score a run. Strike out and you just walk back to the bench.

Patterson has been a Cub much of this decade. He was a regular player in 2002. By now he should be improving. But I don’t know if a stint in the minors will help. And we must point out that despite the nasty batting average, Patterson was on a pace to reach 21 home runs and 23 steals. As bad as things got, you know how many players are on a pace for those homers and steals? Four players in baseball that have as many as 12 steals have double digit home runs. I think you’ve heard of Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, Brian Roberts and Reggie Sanders.

• What would I do with Patterson? I’d leave him in the lineup and bat him sixth or seventh. Teams don’t need OBP freaks hitting there, they need guys to knock runs in because the middle of the order guys also get on base. Patterson had 33 at-bats in the seventh hole this year, and while it’s way too small a sample, he did hit five extra base hits in that time. As the leadoff hitter, he had seven extra base hits in 119 at-bats.

• Two other problems with Patterson: He wasn’t hitting lefties, an affliction quite a few lefty hitters have, and he wasn’t hitting well deep in the count. Neither of these are shocking, or easily solved. Patterson’s batting average when hitting the first pitch was .311. On 0-1 counts, he was hitting .452 with four home runs. The Cubs were trying to get him to be more patient, see more pitches, but instead of it resulting in walks, Patterson was just striking out. After an 0-1 count, he had 60 strikeouts and two walks, and a .190 average. For comparison, Hairston, after an 0-1 count, has a .271 average. Lee, by the way, hits .376 after an 0-1 count. He’s just in another world.

OK, let’s sum it up, because this is, after all, a fantasy blog, and you want to know the fantasy implications here. Well, this is all important information, really, and it goes to show that if Patterson slightly improves in certain areas, he’ll become more valuable to the Cubs, and in fantasy. I don’t know when Patterson will be back in the majors. Maybe the Cubs want to give him a wakeup call, like the Royals did with Berroa last season. Maybe the Cubs think he can straighten out his swing and be a bopper upon return. Maybe the Cubs are about to send Patterson to the Yankees for Tony Womack and a pitcher, who knows. Nothing would surprise me.

But Patterson cannot be forgotten by us. Last year he hit 24 home runs and stole 32 bases. Before the season I labeled six players as at least having some chance at reaching 30-30 this season. The list, in no particular order, was Patterson, Carlos Beltran, Bobby Abreu, Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rodriguez and Mike Cameron. A bunch of others could become that, but it would have been very surprising: Torii Hunter, Coco Crisp, Aaron Rowand and even Vladimir Guerrero. So Patterson belongs in an exclusive group.

You can’t drop him. (He’ll be back in the majors soon.) You can’t trade him. (Good luck getting even 20-20 value at this point.) You can’t cry. (Well, you can, but it won’t help.) You just have to be patient.

Other notes: Final weekend of the first half, and some teams might sit a few regulars to tack on extra rest. Next week I’ll discuss what you should be doing with your fantasy teams without nightly baseball. … Pittsburgh lefty Zach Duke sure looked composed in shutting down Philly. That might seem like no big deal, but the Phils do hit left-handed pitching. … Craig Wilson is hitting well on rehab, and should return in a week. Activate him, because he is streaky. … The San Francisco Chronicle reports the Red Sox will trade Jay Payton to Oakland for Chad Bradford soon. Fantasy meaning? Not much. Bradford wouldn’t figure into Boston’s closing situation, and Payton doesn’t hit much. It could mean a Mark Kotsay trade is imminent, though. Do you really think the Yankees will have someone named Melky manning center field in two weeks?

Eric Chavez has his average up to career levels. Adrian Beltre is almost there. Mike Lowell, are you still with us? … If you have Orlando Cabrera, give up. He will return, but hitting with his elbow problem and pending surgery isn’t going to be easy. He wasn’t a great hitter to start with. … Todd Helton sure looked good Thursday. Really, he’s not that far from hitting .300, and a 15-50 second half would do real well. … Jason Giambi has homered in three straight games. Now he is a definite add. I don’t think this is a Tino Martinez hide-and-seek hot streak, but Giambi clearly has fixed something. … Morgan Ensberg should homer every day this weekend and take over the ML lead to prove how silly it is that he’s not on the All-Star team. Sure, Jimmy Rollins plays shortstop. But he’s not having an All-Star year. For an inning, Ensberg would do fine at short late in the game.

The broken-down Dodgers have a Triple-A lineup and have to face Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt. Start Brandon Backe on Sunday as well. This just isn’t fair. … Mets manager Willie Randolph told the New York Daily News he plans to sit Mike Piazza more in the second half. Great. Just what fantasy owners want to hear. You know, this might actually be good for fantasy; his average shouldn’t drop as far if he’s better rested. … Edwin Encarnacion is back in the minors, but the minute Joe Randa gets traded, he’ll be back. In NL only leagues, he could become a factor. … Chris Shelton plays his 20th game at first base on Saturday. Just a note for those where that matters, because you probably have him stuck at DH right now. He’s up to 24 RBI in as many starts.
posted: July 8, 2005 10:25:02 AM PDT | Feedback

Your Daily ESPN Insider Pick-Pocket

TAGS: Fantasy: Baseball

So, have you heard about Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling coming back as a closer? Intriguing, huh? Well, it’s news like this that gets ESPN Insider’s pencil-necked stat tracker Eric Karabell all tweeked. Today on his Karablog, Karabell causes his keyboard to start smoking as he pumps at least a 1,500 words into his latest entry. And, of course, why wouldn’t you want that type of information for free?

As usual, Catholics can always go here(sub.req.), but the Dionysian gluttony is after the jump.

Schill Saves Sox?
Not too long ago, when Eric Gagne’s season officially ended due to injury, we wrote that he was the first closer drafted in virtually every league, and obviously didn’t supply the value you expected.
Um, we might need to amend the “first closer drafted” remark.

Curt Schilling, who was the 18th overall pick in average ESPN live drafts, edging out Gagne by half a round, might become a closer. So you expected a 20-win season for Schill, eh? How about 20 saves? No matter what the Red Sox say, there’s no guarantee it happens.

I have, as always, numerous thoughts on this subject, so why not just start typing, in no particular order:

• This move does make sense, though if Lou Piniella were to do it, baseball writers would rip him mercilessly. Schilling’s problem in his rehab has been an inability to replicate his motion deeper into games. For an inning or two, he’s fine, throwing hard, spotting pitches, getting outs. He’ll get outs in the first inning of starts, but either tire or be unable to throw the same way by the fourth or fifth inning. Pitching isn’t easy, you have to stick with the same motion throughout, or risk injury, tipping pitches or getting lit. Whether it’s the ankle or whatever, Schilling hasn’t been doing that on rehab. For an inning or two, he can.

• This move wouldn’t be necessary if Keith Foulke were, well, Keith Foulke. Foulke, by the way, has really been an outstanding, consistent pitcher for a long period of time. For a six-year period ending when 2004 did, Foulke had an ERA below 3 each season, never walked as many as 23 hitters, topped 77 innings each time, had two 30-save years and two 40-save seasons, and had one of the lowest opponent batting average totals of any reliever in the span. Now he’s hurt, out at least a month with a minor knee surgery.

• Angry you wasted a free agent signing on Mike Timlin? Don’t be. He could close ably, and probably will get some chances. Certainly there’s no guarantee Schilling with stay healthy, in any role. And like we told you with Justin Duchscherer of the A’s, keep Timlin around not only for the potential saves, but the other stats. Only two relief pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched have a lower ERA than Timlin, Duchscherer and the mercurial Chad Cordero. Timlin can still help you. Don’t let last night’s Alan Embree save scare you; he pitched to one batter.

• The Red Sox can also afford this because of two factors: One, Schilling is a fiery competitor who will do what it takes to win. He knows he can be effective in short bursts. He doesn’t care about his own stats, but he does care about winning, and, let’s be honest, his role in it. He would pitch through anything to achieve hero status yet again. Two, he realizes there’s no obvious, struggling Red Sox starter to replace. Sure, Bronson Arroyo was ticketed for the bullpen, and frankly he remains an option, but he’s not pitching poorly. Wade Miller needs to remain a starter. Nobody wants to see David Wells waddle from a bullpen. Boston not only needs relief help, but it doesn’t really need starting help. Arroyo is fine.

• Schilling will thrive in a relief role. For an inning at a time, I don’t see much issue. Yes, he needs to change his entire routine. He won’t pitch every fifth day, he might pitch every day. And some regard relieving is tougher on the arm, especially a 40-year-old one. He won’t get much rest, but he also will be throwing 20-pitches some nights. I’m not sure if he’ll go back-to-back days much, but he could rack up the saves, or holds.

• Don’t give me any stats from 1988, please. It’s not relevant at all what Schilling did in his Astro or Oriole days in the bullpen. Schilling’s been a starter for well over a decade, and that’s how he earned his rep. It does not preclude Schilling from having success as a closer, nor does it guarantee it. I ran cross country in high school back then, could roll out of bed and jog 10 miles without thinking, but I can’t do it now. Schilling’s 13 career saves, all in 1992 or earlier, tell us nothing. Pitching is pitching, and with his attitude, it shouldn’t matter the inning he does it in. With other pitchers, like a David Wells I’d imagine, it would.

• How many saves should we expect? First of all, forget that this is a first-place team that is winning seven of every 10 games at this point of the season. The Sox already have three saves in one week of July - to three different pitchers, by the way - and there are many more wins to come. But in June Boston was 17-11, yet produced only four saves. That’s it! So 13 of their wins did not have a save. The Sox score a lot of runs, the most in the majors. The team wins games by more than three. Matt Clement has 10 wins, but in only three of those games, including last night, has there been a save. His scores have included 7-2, 17-1, 10-3, 8-0 and 7-1. So Schilling might not get any more saves than, say, Mike MacDougal. Last season Foulke had a fantastic ERA and WHIP and pitched often, but ended up with a mere 32 saves. Fourteen pitchers had more, including Shawn Chacon (he was 1-9 with a 7.11 ERA), Danny Graves and Troy Percival, who missed more than a month with a DL stint. The Yankees won only a few more games than Boston, but Mariano Rivera had 21 more saves. Don’t blame Foulke. Blame David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez!

• And what should you do with Foulke? As I wrote, the guy has a consistent history of success, and it’s reasonable to assume his struggles are directly due to his knee problems. I don’t see why Foulke wouldn’t return in 4-6 weeks, as expected, and resume his 2004 form. Don’t drop him, try to stash him on your DL. Trade him if you must, but I still think he’ll be getting saves this season.

In summary, I think Schilling will be a successful relief pitcher. Is Schilling saving the Sox, or are the Sox saving Schilling? The guy has been too good, able to dial it up whenever he wants, to fail at this. But do I think he’s going to get 30 saves in the second half? Well, it’s not entirely up to him. I think he’ll initially share saves with Timlin, and if anyone in that rotation either struggles or gets injured, Schilling will be the first guy to replace him. This Schilling relief experiment makes sense, but to a point. When Schilling’s able to start and extend himself, I think we’ll see him in the rotation. In October, I still predict Boston’s closer will be Keith Foulke. And remember, he’ll be the one finishing off these 8-3 wins.

Lou’s Dilemma: By now you must know about Lou Piniella’s interesting idea - which he didn’t follow through on - to attempt to use his relief pitchers to start games, then go to his awful starters, and finish up with closer Danys Baez for the one save chance a week he gets. This really doesn’t affect fantasy much, because, none of Tampa Bay’s starting pitchers are worth much in fantasy! I mean, if Jack McKeon starts a game with Guillermo Mota, then Dontrelle Willis pitches innings 3-8, sure there’d be a fantasy uproar. But which Devil Rays starting pitchers do you own? Scott Kazmir does have 80 strikeouts in 99 innings, and workable peripherals (4.27 ERA, 1.44 WHIP), but he also has a mere three wins in 17 starts. He’s owned in 8.6 percent of leagues. Casey Fossum, last night’s sitting duck who allowed 11 hits and seven runs in six innings, has the same stats as Kazmir, but not the name. He’s owned in 0.5 percent of ESPN leagues. You want Hideo Nomo, Doug Waechter, Mark Hendrickson or Dewon Brazelton? Well, I hope I play you in head to head that week. Point is, Piniella can go off the deep end if he wants, but it means nothing in fantasy because the names are avoided.

Anyway, after seeing the backlash and mess he created, Lou backed off, starting Fossum, not Travis Harper. We can debate the possible merits of Lou’s plan some other time and away from fantasy, but bad pitchers are equal opportunity bad no matter which innings they throw.

The Gambler: The Kenny Rogers apology from Wednesday does not affect fantasy, and in this case it’s not the forum to give opinions on who is or isn’t a distraction. I will say this: Rogers was clearly one of the top 10 American League pitchers in the first half, real life and fantasy. An off-field incident cannot change that. Matt Clement is deserving as well, if that’s the course of action decided upon. I’m still trying to figure out what to do with Rogers in a league WITHOUT a bench. I can’t dump him. Can’t trade him. I just have to go three weeks with an inactive pitcher active.

By the way, I don’t think Rangers fans care at all if they lose one of their All-Stars. Just like no 10-year-old kid living in Denver is going to stay awake for the big game just because a Rockie, Brian Fuentes, might perform.

Other Notes: Carlos Pena is all of a sudden smacking home runs for Triple-A Toledo. Good for him. Chris Shelton has 20 RBI in his last 20 starts for the Tigers. Pena will have to find another ML team. … Brandon Lyon did have elbow pain the other day, but the Diamondbacks remain hopeful he’ll return in a few weeks. I wouldn’t go dropping Brian Bruney just yet. … Atlanta called up its other top hitting prospect, Jeff Francoeur, to platoon in right field with Ryan Langerhans. Francoeur bats right-handed, so unless Florida’s the opponent, he might not get much action. I suspect that, like Andy Marte, he won’t be up long. … I’m not making any long-term predictions on Johan Santana, but I don’t believe he’ll keep struggling, or go on a 13-0 win streak either. Pretty safe, eh? I will call him a top five pitcher the rest of the way, though. The way he threw last night, that’s still an aggressive prediction. … As a Phillies fan and Jon Lieber fantasy owner, I won’t be upset if he misses his Sunday start and takes a week off to right himself. … If you look only at the final score in Joe Blanton’s Wednesday loss, you might think he got hammered. He didn’t; seven strong innings. … Austin Kearns homered three times on Tuesday night for Triple-A Louisville. He’s gotta end up in someone’s lineup by August, either by trade or Cincy outfield injury.

posted: July 7, 2005 8:32:42 AM PDT | Feedback

More ESPN Insider Fleecing

TAGS: Fantasy: Baseball

Hey, you know how frustrating it is when you go over to ESPN and the best stuff they have going is the stuff that cost money? Well, in our continued effort to undermine all ESPN profit making schemes based on fantasy baseball, we here at Oddjack have dedicated our selves to coughing up the $5.99 a month just so you don’t have to pay for it. Are we really supposed to pay good money for these guys every day? Ridiculous. We’ve got Yahoo. After the jump, we offer up the cut and paste magic of Tristan Cockroft’s very adept second half projections for fantasy baseball. Nicely, done Tristan. Now, back in your cage!

Oh, and for those of you with a conscience, you can always observe the usual link:

Second Half Projections [ESPN Insider (subs. req.)]

The official midway point of the major-league season passed on Monday, so what better time to take a look at potential second-half performance? With midseason leagues about to begin, I’ve ranked my top players by position below, 20 each at catcher, first base, second base, third base and shortstop, 50 outfielders and starting pitchers, and 25 relief pitchers. Each player also has post-All-Star break statistical projections listed.

(Players are listed at the position at which they have appeared most in 2005. “Since ‘04 All-Star break” numbers are player totals from July 15, 2004 through July 4, 2005.)

C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP

2ND HALF PROJECTION SINCE ‘04 ALL-STAR BREAK
CATCHERS AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS
1. Jason Varitek .294 11 34 2 33 214 .900 .312 21 73 5 71 446 .921
2. Javy Lopez .297 12 41 0 37 229 .882 .297 18 66 0 63 411 .851
3. Jorge Posada .281 11 41 1 35 224 .850 .269 20 79 1 69 458 .811
4. Ramon Hernandez .281 9 36 1 26 217 .795 .282 18 71 1 49 436 .798
5. Ivan Rodriguez .294 5 28 2 34 238 .771 .287 12 56 4 66 498 .763
6. Victor Martinez .259 9 36 0 28 239 .758 .258 20 80 0 59 500 .767
7. Joe Mauer .301 5 23 5 20 193 .794 .290 6 27 5 25 221 .778
8. Michael Barrett .273 8 32 0 24 209 .794 .269 15 58 0 48 428 .778
9. Jason Kendall .300 1 21 4 37 270 .742 .301 1 41 9 77 545 .749
10. A.J. Pierzynski .263 7 31 0 28 213 .732 .244 15 63 0 50 435 .695
11. Ben Molina .278 7 30 0 17 176 .755 .280 11 53 0 33 318 .736
12. Paul Lo Duca .269 3 31 3 28 242 .703 .277 6 70 6 59 491 .719

Avoid ‘em: Lo Duca is a lifetime .311 hitter with a .823 OPS before the All-Star break, .254/.683 after. Even more disturbing, he has hit .307 or better in the first half in each of the past three seasons, but no better than .251 in those second halves.

13. Mike Lieberthal .257 6 25 0 24 210 .726 .261 12 46 1 47 425 .746
14. Mike Piazza .246 7 26 0 22 199 .727 .236 13 48 0 41 406 .699

Avoid ‘em: Jason LaRue has better numbers than Piazza since last year’s All-Star break, and he had 48 fewer at-bats in which to do it. Piazza also batted just .244 with 23 homers in 137 games after the break from 2002-04.

15. Johnny Estrada .284 3 30 0 20 211 .737 .279 8 61 0 41 433 .741
16. John Buck .234 8 24 1 25 197 .672 .233 18 49 2 54 400 .680
17. Todd Greene .272 6 16 0 10 92 .834 .286 11 33 0 19 175 .871
18. Jason LaRue .257 6 25 0 19 175 .776 .271 13 58 0 37 358 .813
19. Gregg Zaun .254 4 26 1 23 181 .743 .251 9 51 1 48 371 .744
20. Jason Phillips .245 4 24 0 16 184 .678 .242 7 42 0 32 368 .656

2ND HALF PROJECTION SINCE ‘04 ALL-STAR BREAK

FIRST BASEMEN AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS
1. Albert Pujols .348 21 60 5 63 290 1.078 .350 45 130 9 128 597 1.086
2. Derrek Lee .323 21 58 8 55 282 1.024 .315 45 116 16 114 596 1.004
3. Mark Teixeira .285 20 61 1 52 305 .912 .286 42 129 2 108 618 .925
4. David Ortiz .300 19 63 0 49 267 .985 .305 37 129 0 104 544 .994
5. Travis Hafner .313 16 54 0 47 256 .990 .312 35 105 0 96 471 1.024
6. Carlos Delgado .303 17 58 0 43 264 .977 .302 38 122 0 88 550 .983
7. Paul Konerko .255 19 55 0 43 275 .843 .252 38 112 0 92 571 .832
8. Aubrey Huff .290 11 46 5 35 272 .828 .293 23 96 10 73 556 .829
9. Richie Sexson .248 16 50 2 40 230 .867 .242 17 58 1 48 277 .824
10. Justin Morneau .269 15 47 0 34 223 .880 .269 28 98 0 64 475 .851
11. Lance Berkman .303 9 35 3 38 211 .927 .312 20 78 8 81 445 .944
12. Todd Helton .299 10 34 1 41 261 .925 .306 21 70 1 87 536 .950
13. Phil Nevin .277 11 50 1 33 256 .791 .276 21 99 1 67 508 .789
14. Dmitri Young .268 12 37 1 39 261 .809 .253 25 77 1 84 538 .772
15. Adam LaRoche .277 10 46 0 30 238 .819 .283 21 80 0 54 406 .866

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: Don’t forget that LaRoche hit .302 with 10 homers and a .943 OPS after the break last season and is on pace for 98 RBI but just 457 at-bats. He’s outperforming Todd Helton, at a fraction of the price.

16. Darin Erstad .287 3 35 7 50 296 .730 .293 9 77 13 103 605 .757
17. Sean Casey .300 5 39 1 39 283 .775 .302 12 80 2 85 586 .785
18. Ben Broussard .268 10 35 2 31 228 .836 .281 22 79 4 67 470 .876
19. Jim Thome .236 12 40 0 35 208 .821 .232 21 74 0 65 410 .795
20. Chris Shelton .297 8 32 0 29 195 .819 .308 5 19 0 19 107 .867

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: All Shelton does is hit; in 79 games between Triple-A Toledo and the Tigers, he’s batting .338 with 13 homers and 58 RBI. Those aren’t bad numbers, and don’t forget, in many leagues, he qualifies at a catcher.

2ND HALF PROJECTION SINCE ‘04 ALL-STAR BREAK

SECOND BASEMEN AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS
1. Alfonso Soriano .278 16 44 9 45 277 .859 .272 31 88 18 88 563 .836
2. Brian Roberts .324 8 35 12 49 290 .903 .326 17 73 25 106 595 .910
3. Jeff Kent .297 15 56 3 49 273 .901 .295 32 114 7 100 555 .909
4. Chone Figgins .277 4 34 19 45 292 .723 .279 8 66 39 96 599 .722
5. Marcus Giles .303 7 29 10 49 267 .846 .293 12 57 22 96 539 .816
6. Chase Utley .291 10 43 6 34 234 .847 .290 17 65 10 56 369 .851
7. Tadahito Iguchi .287 6 35 11 39 247 .790 .278 5 32 9 37 263 .746
8. Placido Polanco .319 7 35 4 42 254 .815 .328 17 73 8 84 519 .848
9. Ryan Freel .280 2 11 21 40 207 .771 .279 4 21 44 81 419 .769
10. Rickie Weeks .266 8 25 12 30 248 .839 .263 4 13 4 11 80 .835

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: It’s tough to get an exact read on Weeks’ 2005 potential, but the No. 2 pick overall in the 2003 draft has major upside. These projections might actually be conservative; he could top the Marcus Giles totals.

11. Craig Biggio .269 10 31 6 45 279 .790 .270 22 64 13 90 571 .794
12. Luis Castillo .316 1 16 8 44 225 .786 .319 2 36 17 90 454 .793
13. Ray Durham .277 7 27 3 44 253 .803 .280 15 63 8 93 528 .818
14. Mark Loretta .326 4 23 4 30 193 .846 .333 8 53 9 72 433 .863
15. Adam Kennedy .318 4 19 7 28 176 .830 .321 6 38 13 56 368 .802
16. Jorge Cantu .296 8 33 0 29 223 .812 .299 15 67 0 62 461 .824
17. Mark Grudzielanek .305 4 24 4 33 239 .781 .297 9 47 7 62 482 .758
18. Ronnie Belliard .272 7 33 2 34 254 .753 .273 15 67 3 63 520 .751
19. Bret Boone .246 7 28 4 25 207 .756 .250 20 81 7 71 561 .744
Avoid ‘em: San Diego is not the place for Boone; Petco Park is a pitcher-friendly park that will make it tough for a rebound, despite his 6-for-12 (.500) career performance there. Plus, the healthy return of Mark Loretta isn’t that far off.
20. Robinson Cano .271 6 27 0 29 210 .763 .291 6 27 0 31 199 .791

2ND HALF PROJECTION SINCE ‘04 ALL-STAR BREAK

THIRD BASEMEN AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS
1.Alex Rodriguez .319 19 59 9 55 276 .993 .313 34 115 18 110 571 .951
2. Melvin Mora .309 14 50 6 47 282 .896 .317 29 107 11 96 577 .923
3. Aramis Ramirez .295 18 48 0 41 258 .919 .306 39 99 0 85 530 .950
4. Adrian Beltre .294 15 48 3 43 279 .851 .309 34 104 8 97 580 .902

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: People still doubt Beltre because he started off so slow. Nevertheless, he has batted .320 (31-for-97) since June 1 and hit .300 with 57 homers and 158 RBI in 214 games after the All-Star break from 2002-04.

5. David Wright .299 13 41 6 43 261 .901 .292 25 83 13 87 542 .867
6. Eric Chavez .292 14 45 1 48 291 .872 .282 27 86 3 96 593 .846
7. Scott Rolen .270 14 43 3 47 237 .899 .271 21 68 1 79 350 .914
8. Hank Blalock .272 13 46 2 45 294 .814 .262 24 94 3 92 600 .782
9. Morgan Ensberg .284 14 40 4 35 218 .896 .293 29 91 8 73 450 .919
10. Chipper Jones .288 11 43 1 38 205 .937 .279 25 88 3 72 408 .933
11. Troy Glaus .248 16 40 3 38 246 .863 .242 25 65 4 61 388 .841
12. Joe Randa .305 9 38 0 36 249 .850 .294 18 75 0 73 517 .821
13. Shea Hillenbrand .295 8 38 1 40 281 .791 .306 15 75 3 81 576 .806
14. Garrett Atkins .305 7 37 0 29 213 .842 .308 8 44 0 32 237 .837
15. Brandon Inge .286 6 34 4 34 273 .786 .284 13 69 7 65 557 .787
16.Dallas McPherson .251 10 31 3 29 215 .773 .248 11 32 4 34 238 .767
17. Bill Mueller .294 5 32 1 39 231 .831 .284 9 61 2 79 469 .801
18. Joe Crede .251 10 34 1 31 231 .740 .239 21 67 1 58 468 .717
19. Vinny Castilla .243 9 35 2 30 267 .706 .265 25 101 4 78 551 .800
20. Mike Lowell .253 7 35 1 30 261 .712 .247 10 62 1 61 535 .685

Avoid ‘em: Who says Lowell has to get better? He always cools off in the power department after the All-Star break, a concern for a guy with three homers. Entering 2005, he had averaged one homer per 29.3 AB after the break, compared to 19.1 before it.

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: Blue Jays rookie Aaron Hill isn’t on the list, since he’ll likely lose some at-bats to a healthy Corey Koskie, but don’t completely overlook him. He’s not much in the power or steals departments, but a .290 second-half average is likely.

2ND HALF PROJECTION SINCE ‘04 ALL-STAR BREAK

SHORTSTOPS AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS
1. Miguel Tejada .318 18 64 3 54 308 .946 .315 38 135 8 112 635 .943
2. Derek Jeter .310 9 33 10 58 297 .850 .307 20 65 22 123 613 .850
3. Jimmy Rollins .288 8 30 16 51 312 .795 .289 18 66 35 116 660 .802
4. Michael Young .308 10 41 4 54 315 .818 .306 22 89 8 110 643 .824
5. Rafael Furcal .262 4 27 23 49 302 .691 .259 9 56 49 95 618 .688
6. Felipe Lopez .292 10 34 4 35 236 .850 .293 21 74 6 77 488 .863
7. Edgar Renteria .291 5 32 7 40 278 .758 .282 10 62 15 78 582 .718
8. Jose Reyes .274 2 20 19 34 234 .691 .264 3 41 40 64 484 .662
9. Carlos Guillen .320 5 28 3 32 219 .852 .324 9 48 6 61 392 .858
10. Julio Lugo .278 3 28 12 36 288 .711 .267 3 57 32 81 591 .679
11. Bill Hall .268 8 29 7 31 220 .771 .254 17 60 17 61 468 .742
12. Bobby Crosby .252 11 28 1 37 230 .809 .245 15 44 2 56 372 .775
13. Khalil Greene .263 8 35 1 35 240 .767 .272 15 66 3 62 419 .791
14. Omar Vizquel .278 2 23 11 34 263 .707 .293 4 51 22 76 546 .743
15. David Eckstein .278 2 21 8 44 288 .707 .275 4 40 15 93 590 .696
16. Orlando Cabrera .270 5 29 6 33 274 .721 .270 10 61 9 68 552 .716
17. Angel Berroa .264 5 20 7 38 269 .691 .260 8 33 11 74 551 .673
18. Juan Uribe .266 7 33 2 26 203 .742 .267 17 72 4 56 424 .752
19. Cesar Izturis .275 1 24 7 40 305 .674 .280 3 52 17 90 632 .692
20. Adam Everett .259 4 26 5 25 205 .698 .266 11 48 13 48 361 .746

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: Let’s not forget about the Devil Rays’ B.J. Upton, currently batting .285 with eight homers, 40 RBI and 25 steals at Triple-A Durham. Poor defense is keeping him in the minors, but a Lugo trade could clear the way.

Notably Absent: Clint Barmes has the skills to be a top-10 fantasy shortstop, but it’s a longshot that he’ll be back before rosters expand on Sept. 1. Even after he returns, it might take some time for him to regain his timing at the plate. If you’re looking for a better bet to bounce back from injury with a fine finish, consider the Cubs’ Nomar Garciaparra.

2ND HALF PROJECTION SINCE ‘04 ALL-STAR BREAK
OUTFIELDERS AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS
1. Bobby Abreu .312 14 49 19 51 276 .958 .308 30 102 42 107 572 .959
2.V. Guerrero .340 17 51 6 50 265 1.004 .337 34 97 14 95 511 1.004
3. Carlos Lee .299 21 62 7 48 288 .934 .294 42 122 12 96 581 .930
4. Ichiro Suzuki.336 6 30 16 52 327 .824 .367 11 56 33 110 670 .882
5. Carl Crawford .292 6 33 26 43 305 .760 .283 15 66 46 90 615 .767
6. G. Sheffield .298 16 60 5 51 275 .934 .287 34 123 10 103 565 .914
7. Miguel Cabrera .318 14 56 1 46 280 .912 .315 29 112 2 97 578 .904
8. Manny Ramirez .281 18 58 1 50 260 .921 .269 38 126 2 104 540 .893
9. Carlos Beltran .272 13 41 13 45 276 .846 .261 26 82 31 91 566 .834
10. Andruw Jones .278 19 50 3 42 273 .894 .278 40 101 6 85 557 .898
11. Torii Hunter .259 13 44 15 45 263 .802 .269 26 91 35 93 540 .821
12. Jim Edmonds .289 17 50 3 44 218 1.021 .298 36 105 8 92 450 1.046
13. Scott Podsednik .270 2 18 31 39 267 .691 .256 3 30 77 75 550 .651
14. Hideki Matsui .299 12 54 2 46 278 .880 .307 26 112 5 101 576 .903
15. R. Sanders .281 14 36 10 36 210 .910 .275 25 64 21 70 414 .871
16. C. Patterson .258 13 30 17 41 298 .746 .247 25 61 35 82 612 .715
17. Johnny Damon .316 6 42 9 54 294 .829 .314 14 90 16 114 606 .835
18. Adam Dunn .252 19 42 3 49 258 .925 .258 42 93 6 105 539 .944
19. Jason Bay .295 14 40 4 46 275 .911 .290 29 85 7 93 569 .901
20. Juan Pierre .290 1 18 20 47 307 .693 .311 2 41 46 104 636 .740
21. Aaron Rowand .303 9 36 9 43 251 .841 .297 20 81 19 99 565 .830

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: He started off last year slowly as well, but rebounded to hit .319 with 15 homers and 48 RBI in 73 second-half games. Rowand has batted .295 with 26 RBI and eight steals in his last 54 games, incidentally.

22. Jose Guillen .294 14 42 1 41 265 .858 .298 29 86 3 84 544 .862
23. Garret Anderson .311 9 52 1 37 283 .812 .302 17 110 2 71 579 .784
24. Moises Alou .295 13 43 2 43 244 .898 .320 32 98 3 97 510 .981
25. Cliff Floyd .276 14 40 6 37 225 .873 .264 26 74 14 72 458 .848
26. Kevin Mench .295 15 41 1 37 234 .943 .286 28 77 2 75 482 .904
27. Shawn Green .285 14 43 2 45 281 .868 .284 32 94 4 96 578 .881
28. Vernon Wells .275 14 37 3 39 284 .817 .254 29 75 5 78 579 .773
29. Coco Crisp .296 7 32 9 41 270 .776 .306 18 72 18 89 545 .824
30. Mike Cameron .257 11 33 11 38 237 .830 .261 23 63 18 67 394 .868
31. Brian Giles .282 9 41 5 48 273 .881 .283 18 82 10 96 565 .873
32. Grady Sizemore .292 7 38 7 40 264 .831 .281 12 62 13 65 445 .800
33. Luis Gonzalez .291 10 40 1 40 247 .880 .278 13 55 2 59 363 .824
34. Craig Monroe .291 11 42 3 33 227 .850 .296 23 86 7 71 477 .860
35. Raul Ibanez .313 8 37 3 35 281 .833 .313 17 77 5 69 582 .833
36. Pat Burrell .269 14 46 0 29 238 .854 .267 26 85 1 55 435 .839
37. Shannon Stewart .303 9 34 3 40 277 .818 .300 18 67 7 80 566 .802
38. Brad Wilkerson .271 9 32 5 48 273 .845 .273 21 64 10 106 568 .871
39. Barry Bonds .370 11 24 1 30 92 1.424 .359 22 53 3 58 184 1.421
40. Ryan Klesko .286 10 35 2 35 231 .882 .286 20 72 4 75 475 .885
41. Pedro Feliz .288 9 41 1 35 240 .791 .286 19 83 2 76 500 .794
42. Brady Clark .294 5 23 8 37 252 .787 .312 10 51 20 80 525 .824
43. Willy Taveras .283 3 13 16 38 269 .688 .290 3 13 22 47 300 .695

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: Look at it this way; Taveras isn’t that far removed from Juan Pierre in the stolen base category, he has a higher batting average so far and plays in a friendlier hitting environment. Plus, he’ll go a lot later in your draft.

44. Jacque Jones .262 9 34 7 31 248 .756 .259 20 72 13 66 513 .767
45. Mark Kotsay .289 7 34 3 39 301 .779 .295 16 72 6 80 624 .792
46. Rob Mackowiak .277 8 36 6 30 220 .808 .260 13 72 9 59 453 .758
47. Alexis Rios .287 4 26 10 35 261 .759 .289 6 50 20 71 539 .745
48. Ken Griffey Jr. .280 11 40 0 31 218 .844 .286 16 54 0 46 301 .861

Avoid ‘em: The Griffey projection presumes he’ll stay healthy, which is hardly a guarantee. With 77 games so far this season, he’s seven away from his highest total since 2001 (111). He played just 48 second-half games from 2002-04.

49. Randy Winn .276 5 31 9 33 293 .736 .279 8 70 21 68 613 .723
50. Magglio Ordonez .285 9 35 1 31 193 .840 .149 2 5 0 7 47 .543

Notably Absent: Sammy Sosa’s .229 batting average since last year’s All-Star break is the fourth-lowest among hitters with at least 500 plate appearances; only Richard Hidalgo (.202), Eric Hinske (.226) and Cristian Guzman (.228) were worse.

2ND HALF PROJECTION SINCE ‘04 ALL-STAR BREAK

STARTING PITCHERS W SV ERA WHIP K IP W SV ERA WHIP K IP
1. Johan Santana 10 0 2.82 0.911 123 105.1 20 0 2.55 0.886 269 222.1
2. Pedro Martinez 8 0 3.10 0.984 116 104.2 16 0 3.40 1.003 238 214.1
3. Jake Peavy 8 0 2.68 1.027 104 97.1 17 0 2.54 1.008 231 209.1
4. Roy Halladay 9 0 2.78 0.997 85 113.1 13 0 2.68 0.994 115 158
5. Roger Clemens 7 0 2.50 1.050 95 101 15 0 2.33 1.020 205 212.2
6. Mark Prior 8 0 2.93 1.116 95 86 9 0 3.49 1.197 171 152
7. Roy Oswalt 9 0 2.81 1.120 76 102.2 23 0 2.83 1.141 178 235.2
8. Randy Johnson 7 0 3.40 1.141 102 108.2 13 0 3.19 1.061 246 231
9. Chris Carpenter 8 0 2.79 1.121 88 93.2 18 0 2.68 1.111 179 191.2
10. Ben Sheets 6 0 3.45 1.131 103 107 7 0 3.30 1.095 204 193.2

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: Sheets’ 3-9 second-half record a year ago might scare off some owners, but this is a better Brewers team backing him. He has a 2.90 ERA, 1.016 WHIP and .226 batting average allowed since the start of last year.

11. Dontrelle Willis 8 0 3.01 1.210 75 101.2 16 0 2.82 1.161 159 217
12. Bartolo Colon 8 0 3.34 1.161 81 107.2 23 0 3.33 1.159 169 221.2
13. Mark Buehrle 8 0 3.09 1.135 71 116.1 17 0 3.13 1.146 149 247
14. Jason Schmidt 8 0 4.20 1.336 98 94.1 13 0 4.52 1.384 200 189.1
15. Livan Hernandez 7 0 3.32 1.294 79 116.2 17 0 3.47 1.314 158 246.2
16. Carlos Zambrano 6 0 3.41 1.208 87 97.2 12 0 3.41 1.205 185 203.1
17. A.J. Burnett 6 0 3.18 1.191 86 90.2 11 0 3.20 1.188 175 182.2
18. Rich Harden 7 0 3.23 1.174 76 92 13 0 2.97 1.108 129 160.2

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: Maybe his disabled-list stint has some owners concerned, but Harden’s 2.15 ERA, 1.005 WHIP and .203 batting average allowed in 10 starts this season demonstrate that he’s already among the AL’s best starters.

19. Freddy Garcia 7 0 3.82 1.190 76 96.2 15 0 3.75 1.184 156 194.1
20. Brandon Webb 6 0 3.30 1.376 83 101 12 0 3.34 1.415 167 212.2
21. Jeremy Bonderman 7 0 3.82 1.196 75 92 15 0 3.93 1.193 173 203.2
22. John Smoltz 5 0 3.06 1.245 71 88.1 9 28 2.78 1.194 137 165
23. Josh Beckett 6 0 3.20 1.184 69 76 13 0 3.39 1.200 153 175
24. Matt Morris 8 0 3.87 1.213 63 90.2 16 0 4.14 1.241 126 174
25. Doug Davis 6 0 3.82 1.326 79 92 12 0 3.86 1.327 180 202.2
26. Matt Clement 6 0 3.81 1.294 76 87.1 11 0 4.29 1.349 155 172
27. Curt Schilling 6 0 4.14 1.234 78 82.2 11 0 3.93 1.059 105 119
28. Javier Vazquez 6 0 4.61 1.244 81 95.2 11 0 5.66 1.357 157 189.1
29. Brad Radke 6 0 3.77 1.198 63 102.2 11 0 3.80 1.194 128 206
30. Mike Mussina 6 0 3.74 1.245 66 84.1 11 0 3.85 1.240 132 163.2
31. Barry Zito 5 0 4.08 1.244 74 103.2 12 0 4.19 1.249 157 217
32. Adam Eaton 7 0 3.98 1.375 65 83.2 16 0 4.08 1.412 134 170
33. John Lackey 6 0 4.13 1.452 81 93.2 13 0 4.30 1.474 188 194.2
34. Jon Garland 7 0 4.12 1.237 53 102.2 18 0 4.30 1.245 111 217.2

Avoid ‘em: Garland has proven capable of being a solid fantasy starter, but does anyone believe he’ll maintain his current pace of 26 wins? He’s a low-strikeout type who had a 5.44 ERA and .284 BAA after the break last year.

35. Brett Myers 5 0 4.22 1.320 79 91.2 12 0 4.13 1.230 166 196
36. Rodrigo Lopez 7 0 4.30 1.348 62 92 15 0 3.92 1.301 128 193
37. Tim Hudson 6 0 3.78 1.366 55 85.2 11 0 4.02 1.406 102 165.2
38. Kris Benson 6 0 4.07 1.180 56 90.2 12 0 3.99 1.184 103 164.2
39. Derek Lowe 6 0 4.15 1.385 65 99.2 12 0 4.53 1.456 137 202.2
40. Andy Pettitte 4 0 3.25 1.179 57 74.2 6 0 3.22 1.184 100 134.1
41. Jeff Weaver 6 0 4.52 1.300 64 97.2 14 0 4.12 1.242 145 220.2
42. Carl Pavano 7 0 4.18 1.371 57 97 13 0 3.97 1.360 116 199.1
43. Jake Westbrook 6 0 4.15 1.254 55 99.2 14 0 4.00 1.217 119 213.2

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: He’s waking up along with the Indians bats, with six wins, a 3.77 ERA and 1.153 WHIP in his last 12 starts. Westbrook also finished last year strong, winning eight games with a 3.55 ERA in 16 second-half starts.

44. Chris Young 5 0 4.32 1.383 76 89.2 11 0 3.71 1.191 108 131
45. Greg Maddux 5 0 4.42 1.254 64 99.2 16 0 4.17 1.179 137 202.2
46. Mark Mulder 7 0 4.42 1.372 55 89.2 14 0 5.33 1.498 114 201
47. Dan Haren 5 0 4.04 1.299 64 84.2 10 0 3.54 1.201 113 152.1
48. Kerry Wood 4 0 4.33 1.309 68 60.1 5 0 4.57 1.430 135 128

Avoid ‘em: He’s an excellent option in strikeout leagues, but I’m still skeptical about Wood’s health. Incidentally, did you know he has never won more than five games after the All-Star break in a season?

49. Paul Byrd 6 0 4.02 1.215 49 80.2 14 0 3.85 1.179 125 201
50. Bronson Arroyo 5 0 4.05 1.188 56 80 13 0 4.09 1.191 133 184.2

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: He’s injured now, but let’s not overlook Orioles left-hander Erik Bedard, one of the game’s best fantasy starters in April and May. His knee injury could preserve his arm, and he might have 10 strong starts left in him.
Notably Absent: The Rangers’ Kenny Rogers remains second in the AL in ERA (2.45), but he wore down terribly the second half of last season (5.46 ERA, .320 BAA). He’ll miss at least three starts as a result of his suspension, and he has a 5.48 ERA in his last four turns.

2ND HALF PROJECTION SINCE ‘04 ALL-STAR BREAK

RELIEF PITCHERS W SV ERA WHIP K IP W SV ERA WHIP K IP
1. Mariano Rivera 4 21 1.99 1.011 31 31.2 8 39 2.05 0.970 65 66
2. Fra Rodriguez 3 20 2.76 1.010 46 32.2 5 20 2.43 1.020 92 66.2
3. Brad Lidge 2 16 2.70 1.173 54 36.2 6 40 1.97 1.094 131 77.2
4. Joe Nathan 1 20 3.13 1.105 39 31.2 1 45 2.87 1.043 86 69
5. Jason Isringhausen 0 23 2.45 1.125 27 29.1 1 48 2.54 1.094 55 60.1
6. Francisco Cordero 1 19 3.03 1.255 39 32.2 1 41 2.96 1.284 79 67
7. B.J. Ryan 1 15 2.00 1.083 53 36 2 20 2.73 1.152 118 79
8. Chad Cordero 3 17 1.57 1.078 34 34.1 7 36 2.05 1.127 79 79
9. Billy Wagner 1 17 1.84 0.852 30 29.1 2 28 1.80 0.855 54 55
10. Trevor Hoffman 0 18 3.18 1.059 23 22.2 1 41 2.98 1.013 54 51.1
11. Keith Foulke 2 16 4.17 1.173 33 36.2 8 34 4.68 1.253 68 75
12. Dustin Hermanson 1 16 3.22 1.266 27 36.1 3 37 3.42 1.245 57 76.1
13. Bob Wickman 0 17 3.38 1.333 16 24 0 35 3.59 1.318 40 57.2
14. Yhency Brazoban 3 16 3.62 1.244 23 27.1 8 16 3.72 1.271 56 67.2

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: There’s always a chance the Dodgers will trade for a proven closer, but if they fall out of the race, they’ve got nothing to lose sticking with Brazoban. He’s on pace for an impressive 32 saves.

15. Jose Mesa 1 17 4.76 1.553 19 28.1 3 41 4.29 1.476 39 63

Avoid ‘em: Among trade candidates, Mesa is one of the most likely closers to be moved. He might not prove good enough to hold that job on a different team, and he was rather hittable the second half of last year (4.13 ERA, .289 BAA).

16. Braden Looper 1 15 4.11 1.500 16 30.2 2 29 3.70 1.447 31 65.2
17. Todd Jones 2 13 3.23 1.402 25 30.2 5 14 3.27 1.424 52 66
18. Danys Baez 3 12 3.34 1.330 25 32.1 5 26 3.31 1.332 48 65.1

Avoid ‘em: It’s a virtual lock Baez will be moved, as his 2.75 ERA and .221 batting average allowed this season could be useful to a contending team. Of course, he might be more appealing as a setup man elsewhere.

19. Eddie Guardado 1 14 2.14 1.000 17 21 1 23 2.57 1.000 28 35
20. Huston Street 1 12 3.08 1.557 28 26.1 2 4 1.46 1.027 40 37
21. Troy Percival 1 11 3.13 1.087 18 23 1 23 3.28 1.034 36 49.1
22. Ryan Dempster 1 11 4.42 1.500 35 36.2 3 14 4.09 1.429 75 77
23. Miguel Batista 2 13 4.50 1.406 18 32 6 19 4.92 1.531 53 111.2
24. Derrick Turnbow 2 10 3.38 1.350 26 26.2 4 16 2.57 1.143 33 35
25. Brian Fuentes 1 5 3.56 1.319 31 30.1 2 10 4.18 1.359 62 60.1

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: If you own Street, it’s a wise move to back him up with Justin Duchscherer, one of the most underrated setup men in the game. He has a 2.72 ERA and .234 BAA since the start of last season.

Fantasy Baseball: Should You Marry Zach Duke?

TAGS: Fantasy: Baseball

Pittsburgh Pirates rookie starting pitcher Zach Duke’s performance this past weekend and subsequent stud-in-the-making reputation has many fantasy owners all atwitter about the possiblity of nabbing him. Many fantasy baseball players are having dirty dreams about low WHIP and high strikeout totals that’ll anchor them the rest of the way. It’s that time of the year in fantasy baseball where you start to reassess if you have any shot at all to win your league’s title. Yep, it’s time to get all longterm girlfriend-y, be aggressive, and ask your team where exactly all this is going. Yahoo’s fantasy sports dorktastic Matt Romig lays out all of Duke’s good points and bad points for us this week and let’s us know that he hopes for the best, but is still uncertain how things will work out. We will be sure to take every bit of his column into consideration and then buy our team flowers and take it on that Caribbean vacation we’ve promised for so long.

The Skinny: The Duke of Pittsburgh [Yahoo Fantasy Sports]

Fantasy Sports: Subs. Req. No More!

TAGS: Fantasy: Baseball

What’s more fun than getting something for free? We here at Oddjack are all about ingesting as much fantasy news as we can on a daily basis—anything we can do to keep our team in the hunt for the coveted Yahoo Fantasy Sports champion screenshot which we plan to use as wallpaper on our laptop the rest of the year. But a funny thing happened to ESPN in the last year—they started charging for their fantasy news. (Sure we can get Out of the Box for free, but we’re on Tristan Cockroft overload of late.) Now, we actually have to pay to see the handsome mugs of Karabell, Engler, and Rounce every day. Sucks when that happens. So, from now on, as a service to our readers, we’ll not only round up everything that’s premium subscription for ESPN, we’ll give it you for free. After the jump, read Eric Karabell’s June round-up for fantasy sports. And shhhh…this is a secret. Well, not really.

On this July 1, we pay homage to those who, on Thursday, accomplished season-long firsts. Yes, even halfway through a schedule, it’s never too late for baseball players to do things they hadn’t done the first three months.
But first, let’s take a look back at June stats and see if there are interesting names. Remember, April was a while ago. If someone had a great June, isn’t that more significant?

June Leaders: The top hitters of the month were both Angels (Vladimir Guerrero, Adam Kennedy), but only one of them is owned in more than 10 percent of leagues. Can you guess which one? The other two players to top .400 are Chad Tracy and Derrek Lee. Again, which one of them is not owned? Andruw Jones, Carlos Lee and Morgan Ensberg all topped 10 home runs, but check out what Shawn Green, Jason Lane, Bill Hall and Joe Randa did. Interesting. In steals, Scott Podsednik, Jose Reyes and Carl Crawford reached double digits. No shock there. But Julio Lugo, Reggie Sanders and Kenny Lofton came close, and some other interesting players stole five or more bases (Marcus Giles, Bill Hall again, Chris Burke). And in runs scored, the very underrated Grady Sizemore reached 30! Times that by six months and he reaches 180!

For pitchers, four guys won five times, but John Smoltz and Roy Oswalt you know. How about A’s Danny Haren and Joe Blanton? Still available in a lot of leagues. And Gil Meche, Horacio Ramirez, Chris Capuano and D.J. Houlton all won four. The strikeout kings were Chris Carpenter, Randy Johnson (struggling? Not really), Pedro and Johan. But check out Doug Davis, Chris Young, John Lackey and Aaron Harang all in the top 10 for the month.

Now, to Thursday’s heroes and goats…

Kevin Mench swatted three home runs for the first time this season, and in his career. Not a bad day at all, with homers in three straight innings, five RBI in total. Fantasy owners have spent a lot of time complaining about this guy, known for his unusually large head and for being the No. 5 home run hitter all-time from Delaware. But he’s on pace for 32 homers, 88 RBI and a .297 average. Looks fine to me. The Rangers lead the league in homers, and Mench should contribute 30 or so by the end of the season.

Jake Westbrook, for the first time this season, has won four straight starts. He has, however topped this before, with a five-game streak last season. You know, Jake remains relatively ignored in fantasy, but he’s on his way to matching his 2004 stats, when he was among the league leaders in ERA and WHIP (his WHIP is there, the ERA is improving). Westbrook was 2-9 three weeks ago. Now he’s 6-9. His WHIP is 10th in the AL. In fantasy one trick, among many, is to get the hot player and enjoy the good stats, don’t get caught with the bad stats. Westbrook’s ERA in May was 3.93. In June it was 3.60. He’s exactly the type of guy you should’ve been adding a month ago and you should keep now, not stream him and dump him.

Chad Cordero saved another game, meaning he’s the first fella since 1996 to finish a month with as many as 15 saves. John Wetteland and Lee Smith also had 15-save months. You have to be good to get that many saves in a month, but also lucky. The Nationals won 20 games in June, and Cordero saved 15 of them. The A’s won 19 games, and their co-closers (Huston Street, Justin Duchscherer) combined for eight saves. A better comparison would be the White Sox, another first-place team with a single closer. Dustin Hermanson had seven saves in June, while the team won 18 times. Basically, Cordero, while dominant, was fortunate to get that many chances. His team doesn’t score enough to prevent save opps.

Jimmy Rollins hit the first home run of his career while batting fifth in the order. You know what, this is actually good news for the Phillies. It’s about time manager Charlie Manuel figured out that it’s tougher to score runs when your leadoff hitter is never on base. Rollins can be an electric player, but a .313 on-base percentage is poor. Rollins slugged .455 last season, hitting 14 home runs and 43 doubles. Why not drop him in the order to an RBI spot? Let him swing for the fences. The Phillies hit Kenny Lofton first, with his shiny .445 OBP, and he produced. The team got waxed anyway, but at least Manuel showed he was paying attention. Just because you’re fast it doesn’t mean you’re a leadoff hitter. Sticking with the Phillies, if you’re still using Jon Lieber, you’re just not paying attention anymore. Lieber had a first Thursday; it was the first time his ERA topped 5 for the season. He finished June with a 6.69 ERA. In May it was 5.88. Still waiting for that 3.03 April one? Lieber’s not much better than Eric Milton right now, and you don’t own him.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention what Carlos Beltran did in the seventh inning Thursday. A week ago I named Beltran the bust of the year for fantasy (see Blog archive), and despite his two stolen bases Thursday that doesn’t change. It can change if this is the beginning of a big second half. First of all, let’s get a few things straight. I didn’t rip Beltran because I am an angry Phillies fan and the Mets have been embarrassing the Phils all season. I concede the latter fact, and predict both the Phillies and Mets will finish the season with more losses than wins. I didn’t rip Beltran because I just traded him in an important league. I needed Pedro more in that league, and am winning steals anyway. I remain a Beltran owner in other leagues and really could use a 20-homer second half badly. By this point, I’ve looked elsewhere for the stolen bases. Finally, there are plenty of nominees for fantasy underachieving, but Beltran’s worse than Todd Helton, Jim Thome, Kerry Wood and the others. Also, he’s worse than Barry Bonds; you KNEW he was hurt. Those guys weren’t picked between first and fourth in 98 percent of drafts.

All that said, what if Beltran starts reeling off two-steal games every night now? Wouldn’t that be tremendous? Sure, I’d be pleased. But I watched that entire Mets-Phillies classic and Beltran didn’t exactly look like a $100-million man. Lieber was terrible, but he retired Beltran with relative ease three times (though the third try was a hard-hit ball to second and turned into a 4-6-3 double play). In the seventh Beltran drew a two-out walk off Ryan Madson, and following in the fleet footsteps of Cliff Floyd, who had stolen two bases off Mike Lieberthal earlier, Beltran took off as well. I was as surprised as anyone; Beltran’s only other steal came on April 6. And not only does he steal second, on the next pitch, with Madson still oblivious, he swipes third. Good for him, and his owners. Now, if he’d steal about 30 more, that would be nice. I do want to see Beltran follow through on his prediction that he’ll start running more. It’s bad for fantasy when one guy can ruin a season like this. None of this is personal.

Notes: Rainouts stink. No, really, even in fantasy, they do little good. The Orioles and Yankees, two teams with many fantasy stars, had their Wednesday game rained out. When will it be played? Not until Sept. 26. By then 90 percent of fantasy baseball leagues will have been decided, at least. And while it’s certainly possible that game will matter for either or both teams, chances are we’ll see quite a few September callups that day. Wednesday’s rainout was one less game for Miguel Tejada to knock in runs, in my opinion. Also, remember when these rainout games get played, because in some cases they are doubleheaders. If you play Diamond Daily or Baseball Challenge or even just regular fantasy, two games for the price of one is a bargain.

Finally, you’ll notice the fantasy pages are redesigned today. Are they perfect? Well, our people are working hard to make adjustments and fix the problems. I think the new pages are an improvement, but like anything else, take some getting used to. Feel free to keep e-mailing me your comments and concerns, and I will make sure the proper people see them. And be patient, Rome wasn’t built in a day.

Have a great, long July 4th weekend everyone.

Karablog [ESPN Fantasy INSIDER (subs. req.)]

Fantasy News: How to Fix Your Foulke-d Up Team

TAGS: Fantasy: Baseball

ESPN Fantasy’s nerd-a-riffic expert Eric Karabell takes some time away from his chemistry set and explores the mystery that is Boston Red Sox reliever Keith Foulke. Owners of Foulke have to be plenty frustrated at this point—especially after doinking the 8-7 lead to the Cleveland Indians Tuesday night. Karabell doesn’t flat-out say to give up on the Red Sox round-faced closer, but does suggest making sure middle reliever Mike Timlin (1.64 ERA) is on the waiver wire radar in case Foulke-y commences any more colossal bed-shitting anytime soon:

There remains little indication the Red Sox will replace Foulke…(But…) [W]ill there be a trade? I’ve heard the name Brian Fuentes mentioned, but I doubt he’d close in Boston. He is, after all, a lefty. Danys Baez? Surely Theo Epstein can see that WHIP, or runners per nine innings (Baez’s WHIP is a very high 1.40) is critical to closing. Keep an eye on this situation, but it doesn’t look like Foulke is going to have prolonged success pitching like this. If you can trade him, even now, go for it.

So there you have it. Sadly, unless there are owners desperate for closers, you’re probably not going to get much in return for him. Oddjack says to go the Timlin route and possibly trade for another closer to shore-up your Foulke-friend saves numbers. These are still the Red Sox and beat up closers on first place teams are still more valuable than mortgaging your team for drek.

Closer Report [ESPN Insider (sub. req.)]
Foulke is Moving Closer to the Edge [Boston Herald]

Fantasy Baseball: The Passion of The Chad Cordero

TAGS: Fantasy: Baseball

Most fantasy owners lucky enough to have Washington Nationals pitcher Chad Cordero on their team this year have got to be unbelievably giddy about their luck. Who would’ve thought the the roly-poly, crooked-hatted reliever for what is, essentially, an expansion team would have 26 saves so far this season and show no signs of stopping? ESPN’s fantasy razorback Tristan Cockroft spends his Out of the Box column praisinng all things Cordero, showcasing the fact that the Nationals little puggly-wuggly closer is on his way to an Eric Gagne-like season. ESPN currently has Cordero ranked as the number one closer—as he should be treated as such in your leagues where he’s possible trade bait. Don’t settle for anything less than premium power offensive numbers, stud starters, or a date with Jessica Biel if you’re going to give up Cordero.

Washington’s Dominant Closer [ESPN Insider (sub. req.)]