More ESPN Insider Fleecing

filed under Fantasy : Baseball

Hey, you know how frustrating it is when you go over to ESPN and the best stuff they have going is the stuff that cost money? Well, in our continued effort to undermine all ESPN profit making schemes based on fantasy baseball, we here at Oddjack have dedicated our selves to coughing up the $5.99 a month just so you don’t have to pay for it. Are we really supposed to pay good money for these guys every day? Ridiculous. We’ve got Yahoo. After the jump, we offer up the cut and paste magic of Tristan Cockroft’s very adept second half projections for fantasy baseball. Nicely, done Tristan. Now, back in your cage!

Oh, and for those of you with a conscience, you can always observe the usual link:

Second Half Projections [ESPN Insider (subs. req.)]

The official midway point of the major-league season passed on Monday, so what better time to take a look at potential second-half performance? With midseason leagues about to begin, I’ve ranked my top players by position below, 20 each at catcher, first base, second base, third base and shortstop, 50 outfielders and starting pitchers, and 25 relief pitchers. Each player also has post-All-Star break statistical projections listed.

(Players are listed at the position at which they have appeared most in 2005. “Since ‘04 All-Star break” numbers are player totals from July 15, 2004 through July 4, 2005.)

C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP

2ND HALF PROJECTION SINCE ‘04 ALL-STAR BREAK
CATCHERS AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS
1. Jason Varitek .294 11 34 2 33 214 .900 .312 21 73 5 71 446 .921
2. Javy Lopez .297 12 41 0 37 229 .882 .297 18 66 0 63 411 .851
3. Jorge Posada .281 11 41 1 35 224 .850 .269 20 79 1 69 458 .811
4. Ramon Hernandez .281 9 36 1 26 217 .795 .282 18 71 1 49 436 .798
5. Ivan Rodriguez .294 5 28 2 34 238 .771 .287 12 56 4 66 498 .763
6. Victor Martinez .259 9 36 0 28 239 .758 .258 20 80 0 59 500 .767
7. Joe Mauer .301 5 23 5 20 193 .794 .290 6 27 5 25 221 .778
8. Michael Barrett .273 8 32 0 24 209 .794 .269 15 58 0 48 428 .778
9. Jason Kendall .300 1 21 4 37 270 .742 .301 1 41 9 77 545 .749
10. A.J. Pierzynski .263 7 31 0 28 213 .732 .244 15 63 0 50 435 .695
11. Ben Molina .278 7 30 0 17 176 .755 .280 11 53 0 33 318 .736
12. Paul Lo Duca .269 3 31 3 28 242 .703 .277 6 70 6 59 491 .719

Avoid ‘em: Lo Duca is a lifetime .311 hitter with a .823 OPS before the All-Star break, .254/.683 after. Even more disturbing, he has hit .307 or better in the first half in each of the past three seasons, but no better than .251 in those second halves.

13. Mike Lieberthal .257 6 25 0 24 210 .726 .261 12 46 1 47 425 .746
14. Mike Piazza .246 7 26 0 22 199 .727 .236 13 48 0 41 406 .699

Avoid ‘em: Jason LaRue has better numbers than Piazza since last year’s All-Star break, and he had 48 fewer at-bats in which to do it. Piazza also batted just .244 with 23 homers in 137 games after the break from 2002-04.

15. Johnny Estrada .284 3 30 0 20 211 .737 .279 8 61 0 41 433 .741
16. John Buck .234 8 24 1 25 197 .672 .233 18 49 2 54 400 .680
17. Todd Greene .272 6 16 0 10 92 .834 .286 11 33 0 19 175 .871
18. Jason LaRue .257 6 25 0 19 175 .776 .271 13 58 0 37 358 .813
19. Gregg Zaun .254 4 26 1 23 181 .743 .251 9 51 1 48 371 .744
20. Jason Phillips .245 4 24 0 16 184 .678 .242 7 42 0 32 368 .656

2ND HALF PROJECTION SINCE ‘04 ALL-STAR BREAK

FIRST BASEMEN AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS
1. Albert Pujols .348 21 60 5 63 290 1.078 .350 45 130 9 128 597 1.086
2. Derrek Lee .323 21 58 8 55 282 1.024 .315 45 116 16 114 596 1.004
3. Mark Teixeira .285 20 61 1 52 305 .912 .286 42 129 2 108 618 .925
4. David Ortiz .300 19 63 0 49 267 .985 .305 37 129 0 104 544 .994
5. Travis Hafner .313 16 54 0 47 256 .990 .312 35 105 0 96 471 1.024
6. Carlos Delgado .303 17 58 0 43 264 .977 .302 38 122 0 88 550 .983
7. Paul Konerko .255 19 55 0 43 275 .843 .252 38 112 0 92 571 .832
8. Aubrey Huff .290 11 46 5 35 272 .828 .293 23 96 10 73 556 .829
9. Richie Sexson .248 16 50 2 40 230 .867 .242 17 58 1 48 277 .824
10. Justin Morneau .269 15 47 0 34 223 .880 .269 28 98 0 64 475 .851
11. Lance Berkman .303 9 35 3 38 211 .927 .312 20 78 8 81 445 .944
12. Todd Helton .299 10 34 1 41 261 .925 .306 21 70 1 87 536 .950
13. Phil Nevin .277 11 50 1 33 256 .791 .276 21 99 1 67 508 .789
14. Dmitri Young .268 12 37 1 39 261 .809 .253 25 77 1 84 538 .772
15. Adam LaRoche .277 10 46 0 30 238 .819 .283 21 80 0 54 406 .866

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: Don’t forget that LaRoche hit .302 with 10 homers and a .943 OPS after the break last season and is on pace for 98 RBI but just 457 at-bats. He’s outperforming Todd Helton, at a fraction of the price.

16. Darin Erstad .287 3 35 7 50 296 .730 .293 9 77 13 103 605 .757
17. Sean Casey .300 5 39 1 39 283 .775 .302 12 80 2 85 586 .785
18. Ben Broussard .268 10 35 2 31 228 .836 .281 22 79 4 67 470 .876
19. Jim Thome .236 12 40 0 35 208 .821 .232 21 74 0 65 410 .795
20. Chris Shelton .297 8 32 0 29 195 .819 .308 5 19 0 19 107 .867

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: All Shelton does is hit; in 79 games between Triple-A Toledo and the Tigers, he’s batting .338 with 13 homers and 58 RBI. Those aren’t bad numbers, and don’t forget, in many leagues, he qualifies at a catcher.

2ND HALF PROJECTION SINCE ‘04 ALL-STAR BREAK

SECOND BASEMEN AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS
1. Alfonso Soriano .278 16 44 9 45 277 .859 .272 31 88 18 88 563 .836
2. Brian Roberts .324 8 35 12 49 290 .903 .326 17 73 25 106 595 .910
3. Jeff Kent .297 15 56 3 49 273 .901 .295 32 114 7 100 555 .909
4. Chone Figgins .277 4 34 19 45 292 .723 .279 8 66 39 96 599 .722
5. Marcus Giles .303 7 29 10 49 267 .846 .293 12 57 22 96 539 .816
6. Chase Utley .291 10 43 6 34 234 .847 .290 17 65 10 56 369 .851
7. Tadahito Iguchi .287 6 35 11 39 247 .790 .278 5 32 9 37 263 .746
8. Placido Polanco .319 7 35 4 42 254 .815 .328 17 73 8 84 519 .848
9. Ryan Freel .280 2 11 21 40 207 .771 .279 4 21 44 81 419 .769
10. Rickie Weeks .266 8 25 12 30 248 .839 .263 4 13 4 11 80 .835

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: It’s tough to get an exact read on Weeks’ 2005 potential, but the No. 2 pick overall in the 2003 draft has major upside. These projections might actually be conservative; he could top the Marcus Giles totals.

11. Craig Biggio .269 10 31 6 45 279 .790 .270 22 64 13 90 571 .794
12. Luis Castillo .316 1 16 8 44 225 .786 .319 2 36 17 90 454 .793
13. Ray Durham .277 7 27 3 44 253 .803 .280 15 63 8 93 528 .818
14. Mark Loretta .326 4 23 4 30 193 .846 .333 8 53 9 72 433 .863
15. Adam Kennedy .318 4 19 7 28 176 .830 .321 6 38 13 56 368 .802
16. Jorge Cantu .296 8 33 0 29 223 .812 .299 15 67 0 62 461 .824
17. Mark Grudzielanek .305 4 24 4 33 239 .781 .297 9 47 7 62 482 .758
18. Ronnie Belliard .272 7 33 2 34 254 .753 .273 15 67 3 63 520 .751
19. Bret Boone .246 7 28 4 25 207 .756 .250 20 81 7 71 561 .744
Avoid ‘em: San Diego is not the place for Boone; Petco Park is a pitcher-friendly park that will make it tough for a rebound, despite his 6-for-12 (.500) career performance there. Plus, the healthy return of Mark Loretta isn’t that far off.
20. Robinson Cano .271 6 27 0 29 210 .763 .291 6 27 0 31 199 .791

2ND HALF PROJECTION SINCE ‘04 ALL-STAR BREAK

THIRD BASEMEN AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS
1.Alex Rodriguez .319 19 59 9 55 276 .993 .313 34 115 18 110 571 .951
2. Melvin Mora .309 14 50 6 47 282 .896 .317 29 107 11 96 577 .923
3. Aramis Ramirez .295 18 48 0 41 258 .919 .306 39 99 0 85 530 .950
4. Adrian Beltre .294 15 48 3 43 279 .851 .309 34 104 8 97 580 .902

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: People still doubt Beltre because he started off so slow. Nevertheless, he has batted .320 (31-for-97) since June 1 and hit .300 with 57 homers and 158 RBI in 214 games after the All-Star break from 2002-04.

5. David Wright .299 13 41 6 43 261 .901 .292 25 83 13 87 542 .867
6. Eric Chavez .292 14 45 1 48 291 .872 .282 27 86 3 96 593 .846
7. Scott Rolen .270 14 43 3 47 237 .899 .271 21 68 1 79 350 .914
8. Hank Blalock .272 13 46 2 45 294 .814 .262 24 94 3 92 600 .782
9. Morgan Ensberg .284 14 40 4 35 218 .896 .293 29 91 8 73 450 .919
10. Chipper Jones .288 11 43 1 38 205 .937 .279 25 88 3 72 408 .933
11. Troy Glaus .248 16 40 3 38 246 .863 .242 25 65 4 61 388 .841
12. Joe Randa .305 9 38 0 36 249 .850 .294 18 75 0 73 517 .821
13. Shea Hillenbrand .295 8 38 1 40 281 .791 .306 15 75 3 81 576 .806
14. Garrett Atkins .305 7 37 0 29 213 .842 .308 8 44 0 32 237 .837
15. Brandon Inge .286 6 34 4 34 273 .786 .284 13 69 7 65 557 .787
16.Dallas McPherson .251 10 31 3 29 215 .773 .248 11 32 4 34 238 .767
17. Bill Mueller .294 5 32 1 39 231 .831 .284 9 61 2 79 469 .801
18. Joe Crede .251 10 34 1 31 231 .740 .239 21 67 1 58 468 .717
19. Vinny Castilla .243 9 35 2 30 267 .706 .265 25 101 4 78 551 .800
20. Mike Lowell .253 7 35 1 30 261 .712 .247 10 62 1 61 535 .685

Avoid ‘em: Who says Lowell has to get better? He always cools off in the power department after the All-Star break, a concern for a guy with three homers. Entering 2005, he had averaged one homer per 29.3 AB after the break, compared to 19.1 before it.

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: Blue Jays rookie Aaron Hill isn’t on the list, since he’ll likely lose some at-bats to a healthy Corey Koskie, but don’t completely overlook him. He’s not much in the power or steals departments, but a .290 second-half average is likely.

2ND HALF PROJECTION SINCE ‘04 ALL-STAR BREAK

SHORTSTOPS AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS
1. Miguel Tejada .318 18 64 3 54 308 .946 .315 38 135 8 112 635 .943
2. Derek Jeter .310 9 33 10 58 297 .850 .307 20 65 22 123 613 .850
3. Jimmy Rollins .288 8 30 16 51 312 .795 .289 18 66 35 116 660 .802
4. Michael Young .308 10 41 4 54 315 .818 .306 22 89 8 110 643 .824
5. Rafael Furcal .262 4 27 23 49 302 .691 .259 9 56 49 95 618 .688
6. Felipe Lopez .292 10 34 4 35 236 .850 .293 21 74 6 77 488 .863
7. Edgar Renteria .291 5 32 7 40 278 .758 .282 10 62 15 78 582 .718
8. Jose Reyes .274 2 20 19 34 234 .691 .264 3 41 40 64 484 .662
9. Carlos Guillen .320 5 28 3 32 219 .852 .324 9 48 6 61 392 .858
10. Julio Lugo .278 3 28 12 36 288 .711 .267 3 57 32 81 591 .679
11. Bill Hall .268 8 29 7 31 220 .771 .254 17 60 17 61 468 .742
12. Bobby Crosby .252 11 28 1 37 230 .809 .245 15 44 2 56 372 .775
13. Khalil Greene .263 8 35 1 35 240 .767 .272 15 66 3 62 419 .791
14. Omar Vizquel .278 2 23 11 34 263 .707 .293 4 51 22 76 546 .743
15. David Eckstein .278 2 21 8 44 288 .707 .275 4 40 15 93 590 .696
16. Orlando Cabrera .270 5 29 6 33 274 .721 .270 10 61 9 68 552 .716
17. Angel Berroa .264 5 20 7 38 269 .691 .260 8 33 11 74 551 .673
18. Juan Uribe .266 7 33 2 26 203 .742 .267 17 72 4 56 424 .752
19. Cesar Izturis .275 1 24 7 40 305 .674 .280 3 52 17 90 632 .692
20. Adam Everett .259 4 26 5 25 205 .698 .266 11 48 13 48 361 .746

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: Let’s not forget about the Devil Rays’ B.J. Upton, currently batting .285 with eight homers, 40 RBI and 25 steals at Triple-A Durham. Poor defense is keeping him in the minors, but a Lugo trade could clear the way.

Notably Absent: Clint Barmes has the skills to be a top-10 fantasy shortstop, but it’s a longshot that he’ll be back before rosters expand on Sept. 1. Even after he returns, it might take some time for him to regain his timing at the plate. If you’re looking for a better bet to bounce back from injury with a fine finish, consider the Cubs’ Nomar Garciaparra.

2ND HALF PROJECTION SINCE ‘04 ALL-STAR BREAK
OUTFIELDERS AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS AVG HR RBI SB R AB OPS
1. Bobby Abreu .312 14 49 19 51 276 .958 .308 30 102 42 107 572 .959
2.V. Guerrero .340 17 51 6 50 265 1.004 .337 34 97 14 95 511 1.004
3. Carlos Lee .299 21 62 7 48 288 .934 .294 42 122 12 96 581 .930
4. Ichiro Suzuki.336 6 30 16 52 327 .824 .367 11 56 33 110 670 .882
5. Carl Crawford .292 6 33 26 43 305 .760 .283 15 66 46 90 615 .767
6. G. Sheffield .298 16 60 5 51 275 .934 .287 34 123 10 103 565 .914
7. Miguel Cabrera .318 14 56 1 46 280 .912 .315 29 112 2 97 578 .904
8. Manny Ramirez .281 18 58 1 50 260 .921 .269 38 126 2 104 540 .893
9. Carlos Beltran .272 13 41 13 45 276 .846 .261 26 82 31 91 566 .834
10. Andruw Jones .278 19 50 3 42 273 .894 .278 40 101 6 85 557 .898
11. Torii Hunter .259 13 44 15 45 263 .802 .269 26 91 35 93 540 .821
12. Jim Edmonds .289 17 50 3 44 218 1.021 .298 36 105 8 92 450 1.046
13. Scott Podsednik .270 2 18 31 39 267 .691 .256 3 30 77 75 550 .651
14. Hideki Matsui .299 12 54 2 46 278 .880 .307 26 112 5 101 576 .903
15. R. Sanders .281 14 36 10 36 210 .910 .275 25 64 21 70 414 .871
16. C. Patterson .258 13 30 17 41 298 .746 .247 25 61 35 82 612 .715
17. Johnny Damon .316 6 42 9 54 294 .829 .314 14 90 16 114 606 .835
18. Adam Dunn .252 19 42 3 49 258 .925 .258 42 93 6 105 539 .944
19. Jason Bay .295 14 40 4 46 275 .911 .290 29 85 7 93 569 .901
20. Juan Pierre .290 1 18 20 47 307 .693 .311 2 41 46 104 636 .740
21. Aaron Rowand .303 9 36 9 43 251 .841 .297 20 81 19 99 565 .830

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: He started off last year slowly as well, but rebounded to hit .319 with 15 homers and 48 RBI in 73 second-half games. Rowand has batted .295 with 26 RBI and eight steals in his last 54 games, incidentally.

22. Jose Guillen .294 14 42 1 41 265 .858 .298 29 86 3 84 544 .862
23. Garret Anderson .311 9 52 1 37 283 .812 .302 17 110 2 71 579 .784
24. Moises Alou .295 13 43 2 43 244 .898 .320 32 98 3 97 510 .981
25. Cliff Floyd .276 14 40 6 37 225 .873 .264 26 74 14 72 458 .848
26. Kevin Mench .295 15 41 1 37 234 .943 .286 28 77 2 75 482 .904
27. Shawn Green .285 14 43 2 45 281 .868 .284 32 94 4 96 578 .881
28. Vernon Wells .275 14 37 3 39 284 .817 .254 29 75 5 78 579 .773
29. Coco Crisp .296 7 32 9 41 270 .776 .306 18 72 18 89 545 .824
30. Mike Cameron .257 11 33 11 38 237 .830 .261 23 63 18 67 394 .868
31. Brian Giles .282 9 41 5 48 273 .881 .283 18 82 10 96 565 .873
32. Grady Sizemore .292 7 38 7 40 264 .831 .281 12 62 13 65 445 .800
33. Luis Gonzalez .291 10 40 1 40 247 .880 .278 13 55 2 59 363 .824
34. Craig Monroe .291 11 42 3 33 227 .850 .296 23 86 7 71 477 .860
35. Raul Ibanez .313 8 37 3 35 281 .833 .313 17 77 5 69 582 .833
36. Pat Burrell .269 14 46 0 29 238 .854 .267 26 85 1 55 435 .839
37. Shannon Stewart .303 9 34 3 40 277 .818 .300 18 67 7 80 566 .802
38. Brad Wilkerson .271 9 32 5 48 273 .845 .273 21 64 10 106 568 .871
39. Barry Bonds .370 11 24 1 30 92 1.424 .359 22 53 3 58 184 1.421
40. Ryan Klesko .286 10 35 2 35 231 .882 .286 20 72 4 75 475 .885
41. Pedro Feliz .288 9 41 1 35 240 .791 .286 19 83 2 76 500 .794
42. Brady Clark .294 5 23 8 37 252 .787 .312 10 51 20 80 525 .824
43. Willy Taveras .283 3 13 16 38 269 .688 .290 3 13 22 47 300 .695

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: Look at it this way; Taveras isn’t that far removed from Juan Pierre in the stolen base category, he has a higher batting average so far and plays in a friendlier hitting environment. Plus, he’ll go a lot later in your draft.

44. Jacque Jones .262 9 34 7 31 248 .756 .259 20 72 13 66 513 .767
45. Mark Kotsay .289 7 34 3 39 301 .779 .295 16 72 6 80 624 .792
46. Rob Mackowiak .277 8 36 6 30 220 .808 .260 13 72 9 59 453 .758
47. Alexis Rios .287 4 26 10 35 261 .759 .289 6 50 20 71 539 .745
48. Ken Griffey Jr. .280 11 40 0 31 218 .844 .286 16 54 0 46 301 .861

Avoid ‘em: The Griffey projection presumes he’ll stay healthy, which is hardly a guarantee. With 77 games so far this season, he’s seven away from his highest total since 2001 (111). He played just 48 second-half games from 2002-04.

49. Randy Winn .276 5 31 9 33 293 .736 .279 8 70 21 68 613 .723
50. Magglio Ordonez .285 9 35 1 31 193 .840 .149 2 5 0 7 47 .543

Notably Absent: Sammy Sosa’s .229 batting average since last year’s All-Star break is the fourth-lowest among hitters with at least 500 plate appearances; only Richard Hidalgo (.202), Eric Hinske (.226) and Cristian Guzman (.228) were worse.

2ND HALF PROJECTION SINCE ‘04 ALL-STAR BREAK

STARTING PITCHERS W SV ERA WHIP K IP W SV ERA WHIP K IP
1. Johan Santana 10 0 2.82 0.911 123 105.1 20 0 2.55 0.886 269 222.1
2. Pedro Martinez 8 0 3.10 0.984 116 104.2 16 0 3.40 1.003 238 214.1
3. Jake Peavy 8 0 2.68 1.027 104 97.1 17 0 2.54 1.008 231 209.1
4. Roy Halladay 9 0 2.78 0.997 85 113.1 13 0 2.68 0.994 115 158
5. Roger Clemens 7 0 2.50 1.050 95 101 15 0 2.33 1.020 205 212.2
6. Mark Prior 8 0 2.93 1.116 95 86 9 0 3.49 1.197 171 152
7. Roy Oswalt 9 0 2.81 1.120 76 102.2 23 0 2.83 1.141 178 235.2
8. Randy Johnson 7 0 3.40 1.141 102 108.2 13 0 3.19 1.061 246 231
9. Chris Carpenter 8 0 2.79 1.121 88 93.2 18 0 2.68 1.111 179 191.2
10. Ben Sheets 6 0 3.45 1.131 103 107 7 0 3.30 1.095 204 193.2

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: Sheets’ 3-9 second-half record a year ago might scare off some owners, but this is a better Brewers team backing him. He has a 2.90 ERA, 1.016 WHIP and .226 batting average allowed since the start of last year.

11. Dontrelle Willis 8 0 3.01 1.210 75 101.2 16 0 2.82 1.161 159 217
12. Bartolo Colon 8 0 3.34 1.161 81 107.2 23 0 3.33 1.159 169 221.2
13. Mark Buehrle 8 0 3.09 1.135 71 116.1 17 0 3.13 1.146 149 247
14. Jason Schmidt 8 0 4.20 1.336 98 94.1 13 0 4.52 1.384 200 189.1
15. Livan Hernandez 7 0 3.32 1.294 79 116.2 17 0 3.47 1.314 158 246.2
16. Carlos Zambrano 6 0 3.41 1.208 87 97.2 12 0 3.41 1.205 185 203.1
17. A.J. Burnett 6 0 3.18 1.191 86 90.2 11 0 3.20 1.188 175 182.2
18. Rich Harden 7 0 3.23 1.174 76 92 13 0 2.97 1.108 129 160.2

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: Maybe his disabled-list stint has some owners concerned, but Harden’s 2.15 ERA, 1.005 WHIP and .203 batting average allowed in 10 starts this season demonstrate that he’s already among the AL’s best starters.

19. Freddy Garcia 7 0 3.82 1.190 76 96.2 15 0 3.75 1.184 156 194.1
20. Brandon Webb 6 0 3.30 1.376 83 101 12 0 3.34 1.415 167 212.2
21. Jeremy Bonderman 7 0 3.82 1.196 75 92 15 0 3.93 1.193 173 203.2
22. John Smoltz 5 0 3.06 1.245 71 88.1 9 28 2.78 1.194 137 165
23. Josh Beckett 6 0 3.20 1.184 69 76 13 0 3.39 1.200 153 175
24. Matt Morris 8 0 3.87 1.213 63 90.2 16 0 4.14 1.241 126 174
25. Doug Davis 6 0 3.82 1.326 79 92 12 0 3.86 1.327 180 202.2
26. Matt Clement 6 0 3.81 1.294 76 87.1 11 0 4.29 1.349 155 172
27. Curt Schilling 6 0 4.14 1.234 78 82.2 11 0 3.93 1.059 105 119
28. Javier Vazquez 6 0 4.61 1.244 81 95.2 11 0 5.66 1.357 157 189.1
29. Brad Radke 6 0 3.77 1.198 63 102.2 11 0 3.80 1.194 128 206
30. Mike Mussina 6 0 3.74 1.245 66 84.1 11 0 3.85 1.240 132 163.2
31. Barry Zito 5 0 4.08 1.244 74 103.2 12 0 4.19 1.249 157 217
32. Adam Eaton 7 0 3.98 1.375 65 83.2 16 0 4.08 1.412 134 170
33. John Lackey 6 0 4.13 1.452 81 93.2 13 0 4.30 1.474 188 194.2
34. Jon Garland 7 0 4.12 1.237 53 102.2 18 0 4.30 1.245 111 217.2

Avoid ‘em: Garland has proven capable of being a solid fantasy starter, but does anyone believe he’ll maintain his current pace of 26 wins? He’s a low-strikeout type who had a 5.44 ERA and .284 BAA after the break last year.

35. Brett Myers 5 0 4.22 1.320 79 91.2 12 0 4.13 1.230 166 196
36. Rodrigo Lopez 7 0 4.30 1.348 62 92 15 0 3.92 1.301 128 193
37. Tim Hudson 6 0 3.78 1.366 55 85.2 11 0 4.02 1.406 102 165.2
38. Kris Benson 6 0 4.07 1.180 56 90.2 12 0 3.99 1.184 103 164.2
39. Derek Lowe 6 0 4.15 1.385 65 99.2 12 0 4.53 1.456 137 202.2
40. Andy Pettitte 4 0 3.25 1.179 57 74.2 6 0 3.22 1.184 100 134.1
41. Jeff Weaver 6 0 4.52 1.300 64 97.2 14 0 4.12 1.242 145 220.2
42. Carl Pavano 7 0 4.18 1.371 57 97 13 0 3.97 1.360 116 199.1
43. Jake Westbrook 6 0 4.15 1.254 55 99.2 14 0 4.00 1.217 119 213.2

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: He’s waking up along with the Indians bats, with six wins, a 3.77 ERA and 1.153 WHIP in his last 12 starts. Westbrook also finished last year strong, winning eight games with a 3.55 ERA in 16 second-half starts.

44. Chris Young 5 0 4.32 1.383 76 89.2 11 0 3.71 1.191 108 131
45. Greg Maddux 5 0 4.42 1.254 64 99.2 16 0 4.17 1.179 137 202.2
46. Mark Mulder 7 0 4.42 1.372 55 89.2 14 0 5.33 1.498 114 201
47. Dan Haren 5 0 4.04 1.299 64 84.2 10 0 3.54 1.201 113 152.1
48. Kerry Wood 4 0 4.33 1.309 68 60.1 5 0 4.57 1.430 135 128

Avoid ‘em: He’s an excellent option in strikeout leagues, but I’m still skeptical about Wood’s health. Incidentally, did you know he has never won more than five games after the All-Star break in a season?

49. Paul Byrd 6 0 4.02 1.215 49 80.2 14 0 3.85 1.179 125 201
50. Bronson Arroyo 5 0 4.05 1.188 56 80 13 0 4.09 1.191 133 184.2

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: He’s injured now, but let’s not overlook Orioles left-hander Erik Bedard, one of the game’s best fantasy starters in April and May. His knee injury could preserve his arm, and he might have 10 strong starts left in him.
Notably Absent: The Rangers’ Kenny Rogers remains second in the AL in ERA (2.45), but he wore down terribly the second half of last season (5.46 ERA, .320 BAA). He’ll miss at least three starts as a result of his suspension, and he has a 5.48 ERA in his last four turns.

2ND HALF PROJECTION SINCE ‘04 ALL-STAR BREAK

RELIEF PITCHERS W SV ERA WHIP K IP W SV ERA WHIP K IP
1. Mariano Rivera 4 21 1.99 1.011 31 31.2 8 39 2.05 0.970 65 66
2. Fra Rodriguez 3 20 2.76 1.010 46 32.2 5 20 2.43 1.020 92 66.2
3. Brad Lidge 2 16 2.70 1.173 54 36.2 6 40 1.97 1.094 131 77.2
4. Joe Nathan 1 20 3.13 1.105 39 31.2 1 45 2.87 1.043 86 69
5. Jason Isringhausen 0 23 2.45 1.125 27 29.1 1 48 2.54 1.094 55 60.1
6. Francisco Cordero 1 19 3.03 1.255 39 32.2 1 41 2.96 1.284 79 67
7. B.J. Ryan 1 15 2.00 1.083 53 36 2 20 2.73 1.152 118 79
8. Chad Cordero 3 17 1.57 1.078 34 34.1 7 36 2.05 1.127 79 79
9. Billy Wagner 1 17 1.84 0.852 30 29.1 2 28 1.80 0.855 54 55
10. Trevor Hoffman 0 18 3.18 1.059 23 22.2 1 41 2.98 1.013 54 51.1
11. Keith Foulke 2 16 4.17 1.173 33 36.2 8 34 4.68 1.253 68 75
12. Dustin Hermanson 1 16 3.22 1.266 27 36.1 3 37 3.42 1.245 57 76.1
13. Bob Wickman 0 17 3.38 1.333 16 24 0 35 3.59 1.318 40 57.2
14. Yhency Brazoban 3 16 3.62 1.244 23 27.1 8 16 3.72 1.271 56 67.2

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: There’s always a chance the Dodgers will trade for a proven closer, but if they fall out of the race, they’ve got nothing to lose sticking with Brazoban. He’s on pace for an impressive 32 saves.

15. Jose Mesa 1 17 4.76 1.553 19 28.1 3 41 4.29 1.476 39 63

Avoid ‘em: Among trade candidates, Mesa is one of the most likely closers to be moved. He might not prove good enough to hold that job on a different team, and he was rather hittable the second half of last year (4.13 ERA, .289 BAA).

16. Braden Looper 1 15 4.11 1.500 16 30.2 2 29 3.70 1.447 31 65.2
17. Todd Jones 2 13 3.23 1.402 25 30.2 5 14 3.27 1.424 52 66
18. Danys Baez 3 12 3.34 1.330 25 32.1 5 26 3.31 1.332 48 65.1

Avoid ‘em: It’s a virtual lock Baez will be moved, as his 2.75 ERA and .221 batting average allowed this season could be useful to a contending team. Of course, he might be more appealing as a setup man elsewhere.

19. Eddie Guardado 1 14 2.14 1.000 17 21 1 23 2.57 1.000 28 35
20. Huston Street 1 12 3.08 1.557 28 26.1 2 4 1.46 1.027 40 37
21. Troy Percival 1 11 3.13 1.087 18 23 1 23 3.28 1.034 36 49.1
22. Ryan Dempster 1 11 4.42 1.500 35 36.2 3 14 4.09 1.429 75 77
23. Miguel Batista 2 13 4.50 1.406 18 32 6 19 4.92 1.531 53 111.2
24. Derrick Turnbow 2 10 3.38 1.350 26 26.2 4 16 2.57 1.143 33 35
25. Brian Fuentes 1 5 3.56 1.319 31 30.1 2 10 4.18 1.359 62 60.1

Tristan’s Bargain Bin: If you own Street, it’s a wise move to back him up with Justin Duchscherer, one of the most underrated setup men in the game. He has a 2.72 ERA and .234 BAA since the start of last season.