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So, have you heard about Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling coming back as a closer? Intriguing, huh? Well, it’s news like this that gets ESPN Insider’s pencil-necked stat tracker Eric Karabell all tweeked. Today on his Karablog, Karabell causes his keyboard to start smoking as he pumps at least a 1,500 words into his latest entry. And, of course, why wouldn’t you want that type of information for free?

As usual, Catholics can always go here(sub.req.), but the Dionysian gluttony is after the jump.

Schill Saves Sox?
Not too long ago, when Eric Gagne’s season officially ended due to injury, we wrote that he was the first closer drafted in virtually every league, and obviously didn’t supply the value you expected.
Um, we might need to amend the “first closer drafted” remark.

Curt Schilling, who was the 18th overall pick in average ESPN live drafts, edging out Gagne by half a round, might become a closer. So you expected a 20-win season for Schill, eh? How about 20 saves? No matter what the Red Sox say, there’s no guarantee it happens.

I have, as always, numerous thoughts on this subject, so why not just start typing, in no particular order:

• This move does make sense, though if Lou Piniella were to do it, baseball writers would rip him mercilessly. Schilling’s problem in his rehab has been an inability to replicate his motion deeper into games. For an inning or two, he’s fine, throwing hard, spotting pitches, getting outs. He’ll get outs in the first inning of starts, but either tire or be unable to throw the same way by the fourth or fifth inning. Pitching isn’t easy, you have to stick with the same motion throughout, or risk injury, tipping pitches or getting lit. Whether it’s the ankle or whatever, Schilling hasn’t been doing that on rehab. For an inning or two, he can.

• This move wouldn’t be necessary if Keith Foulke were, well, Keith Foulke. Foulke, by the way, has really been an outstanding, consistent pitcher for a long period of time. For a six-year period ending when 2004 did, Foulke had an ERA below 3 each season, never walked as many as 23 hitters, topped 77 innings each time, had two 30-save years and two 40-save seasons, and had one of the lowest opponent batting average totals of any reliever in the span. Now he’s hurt, out at least a month with a minor knee surgery.

• Angry you wasted a free agent signing on Mike Timlin? Don’t be. He could close ably, and probably will get some chances. Certainly there’s no guarantee Schilling with stay healthy, in any role. And like we told you with Justin Duchscherer of the A’s, keep Timlin around not only for the potential saves, but the other stats. Only two relief pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched have a lower ERA than Timlin, Duchscherer and the mercurial Chad Cordero. Timlin can still help you. Don’t let last night’s Alan Embree save scare you; he pitched to one batter.

• The Red Sox can also afford this because of two factors: One, Schilling is a fiery competitor who will do what it takes to win. He knows he can be effective in short bursts. He doesn’t care about his own stats, but he does care about winning, and, let’s be honest, his role in it. He would pitch through anything to achieve hero status yet again. Two, he realizes there’s no obvious, struggling Red Sox starter to replace. Sure, Bronson Arroyo was ticketed for the bullpen, and frankly he remains an option, but he’s not pitching poorly. Wade Miller needs to remain a starter. Nobody wants to see David Wells waddle from a bullpen. Boston not only needs relief help, but it doesn’t really need starting help. Arroyo is fine.

• Schilling will thrive in a relief role. For an inning at a time, I don’t see much issue. Yes, he needs to change his entire routine. He won’t pitch every fifth day, he might pitch every day. And some regard relieving is tougher on the arm, especially a 40-year-old one. He won’t get much rest, but he also will be throwing 20-pitches some nights. I’m not sure if he’ll go back-to-back days much, but he could rack up the saves, or holds.

• Don’t give me any stats from 1988, please. It’s not relevant at all what Schilling did in his Astro or Oriole days in the bullpen. Schilling’s been a starter for well over a decade, and that’s how he earned his rep. It does not preclude Schilling from having success as a closer, nor does it guarantee it. I ran cross country in high school back then, could roll out of bed and jog 10 miles without thinking, but I can’t do it now. Schilling’s 13 career saves, all in 1992 or earlier, tell us nothing. Pitching is pitching, and with his attitude, it shouldn’t matter the inning he does it in. With other pitchers, like a David Wells I’d imagine, it would.

• How many saves should we expect? First of all, forget that this is a first-place team that is winning seven of every 10 games at this point of the season. The Sox already have three saves in one week of July - to three different pitchers, by the way - and there are many more wins to come. But in June Boston was 17-11, yet produced only four saves. That’s it! So 13 of their wins did not have a save. The Sox score a lot of runs, the most in the majors. The team wins games by more than three. Matt Clement has 10 wins, but in only three of those games, including last night, has there been a save. His scores have included 7-2, 17-1, 10-3, 8-0 and 7-1. So Schilling might not get any more saves than, say, Mike MacDougal. Last season Foulke had a fantastic ERA and WHIP and pitched often, but ended up with a mere 32 saves. Fourteen pitchers had more, including Shawn Chacon (he was 1-9 with a 7.11 ERA), Danny Graves and Troy Percival, who missed more than a month with a DL stint. The Yankees won only a few more games than Boston, but Mariano Rivera had 21 more saves. Don’t blame Foulke. Blame David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez!

• And what should you do with Foulke? As I wrote, the guy has a consistent history of success, and it’s reasonable to assume his struggles are directly due to his knee problems. I don’t see why Foulke wouldn’t return in 4-6 weeks, as expected, and resume his 2004 form. Don’t drop him, try to stash him on your DL. Trade him if you must, but I still think he’ll be getting saves this season.

In summary, I think Schilling will be a successful relief pitcher. Is Schilling saving the Sox, or are the Sox saving Schilling? The guy has been too good, able to dial it up whenever he wants, to fail at this. But do I think he’s going to get 30 saves in the second half? Well, it’s not entirely up to him. I think he’ll initially share saves with Timlin, and if anyone in that rotation either struggles or gets injured, Schilling will be the first guy to replace him. This Schilling relief experiment makes sense, but to a point. When Schilling’s able to start and extend himself, I think we’ll see him in the rotation. In October, I still predict Boston’s closer will be Keith Foulke. And remember, he’ll be the one finishing off these 8-3 wins.

Lou’s Dilemma: By now you must know about Lou Piniella’s interesting idea - which he didn’t follow through on - to attempt to use his relief pitchers to start games, then go to his awful starters, and finish up with closer Danys Baez for the one save chance a week he gets. This really doesn’t affect fantasy much, because, none of Tampa Bay’s starting pitchers are worth much in fantasy! I mean, if Jack McKeon starts a game with Guillermo Mota, then Dontrelle Willis pitches innings 3-8, sure there’d be a fantasy uproar. But which Devil Rays starting pitchers do you own? Scott Kazmir does have 80 strikeouts in 99 innings, and workable peripherals (4.27 ERA, 1.44 WHIP), but he also has a mere three wins in 17 starts. He’s owned in 8.6 percent of leagues. Casey Fossum, last night’s sitting duck who allowed 11 hits and seven runs in six innings, has the same stats as Kazmir, but not the name. He’s owned in 0.5 percent of ESPN leagues. You want Hideo Nomo, Doug Waechter, Mark Hendrickson or Dewon Brazelton? Well, I hope I play you in head to head that week. Point is, Piniella can go off the deep end if he wants, but it means nothing in fantasy because the names are avoided.

Anyway, after seeing the backlash and mess he created, Lou backed off, starting Fossum, not Travis Harper. We can debate the possible merits of Lou’s plan some other time and away from fantasy, but bad pitchers are equal opportunity bad no matter which innings they throw.

The Gambler: The Kenny Rogers apology from Wednesday does not affect fantasy, and in this case it’s not the forum to give opinions on who is or isn’t a distraction. I will say this: Rogers was clearly one of the top 10 American League pitchers in the first half, real life and fantasy. An off-field incident cannot change that. Matt Clement is deserving as well, if that’s the course of action decided upon. I’m still trying to figure out what to do with Rogers in a league WITHOUT a bench. I can’t dump him. Can’t trade him. I just have to go three weeks with an inactive pitcher active.

By the way, I don’t think Rangers fans care at all if they lose one of their All-Stars. Just like no 10-year-old kid living in Denver is going to stay awake for the big game just because a Rockie, Brian Fuentes, might perform.

Other Notes: Carlos Pena is all of a sudden smacking home runs for Triple-A Toledo. Good for him. Chris Shelton has 20 RBI in his last 20 starts for the Tigers. Pena will have to find another ML team. … Brandon Lyon did have elbow pain the other day, but the Diamondbacks remain hopeful he’ll return in a few weeks. I wouldn’t go dropping Brian Bruney just yet. … Atlanta called up its other top hitting prospect, Jeff Francoeur, to platoon in right field with Ryan Langerhans. Francoeur bats right-handed, so unless Florida’s the opponent, he might not get much action. I suspect that, like Andy Marte, he won’t be up long. … I’m not making any long-term predictions on Johan Santana, but I don’t believe he’ll keep struggling, or go on a 13-0 win streak either. Pretty safe, eh? I will call him a top five pitcher the rest of the way, though. The way he threw last night, that’s still an aggressive prediction. … As a Phillies fan and Jon Lieber fantasy owner, I won’t be upset if he misses his Sunday start and takes a week off to right himself. … If you look only at the final score in Joe Blanton’s Wednesday loss, you might think he got hammered. He didn’t; seven strong innings. … Austin Kearns homered three times on Tuesday night for Triple-A Louisville. He’s gotta end up in someone’s lineup by August, either by trade or Cincy outfield injury.

posted: July 7, 2005 8:32:42 AM PDT | Feedback