Breeders’ Cup: How Often Do The Favorites Win?

READ MORE: 2005 Breeders Cup, First Samurai, Horse Racing, Leroidesanimaux, Lost in the Fog

Playing longshots at the Breeders’ Cup this weekend? ESPN’s Ed McNamara asks you to take a deep breath and think twice:

Year after year, favorites win 30 to 33 percent of all races run in North America. The chalk has done even better on the 21 runnings of racing’s championship day, taking 57 of 153 races (37.8 percent), or three of every eight. Of course, that means five of every eight post-time favorites lose.

Eddie Mac looks at the three shortest-priced favorites on the board, looking to see if they are worth a play. He claims First Samurai (Juvenile) “has done nothing wrong,” Lost in the Fog (Sprint) is “unbettable, but maybe he’s not unbeatable,” and Leroidesanimaux (Mile - pictured) might fall victim to trainer Bobby Frankel’s flop curse, with Frankel 3-63 in the Cup lifetime. Chase the chalk if you want to, these three horses are primed to be the shortest-priced on the card.

Eddie Mac: Beating the ‘unbeatable’ favorites [ESPN]
Breeders’ Cup [NTRA]
2005 Breeders’ Cup Archive [Oddjack]

Breeders’ Cup: Let The Kids Take A Lap

READ MORE: 2005 Breeders Cup, First Samurai, Horse Racing, Juvenile, Juvenile Fillies

With Breeders’ Cup races looming on Saturday, we figured we’d get off our ass and handicap the card for you. Hopefully, this will help you guys enjoy the racing more - especially financially. Today we’ve got the Juvenile Fillies and Juvenile races, and we’ll hit one or two of the others each day through Friday. Of course, we go wall-to-wall Friday with as many expert picks as we can find from around Teh Intraweb, and give you our Pick Six ticket for the afternoon. But for now we’ll look at the youngsters and see how the first two races on the card shape up. After the jump…

JUVENILE FILLIES, RACE 3 - ONE AND ONE SIXTEENTH MILES ON THE DIRT FOR TWO-YEAR-OLD FILLIES

LAST YEAR…

In 2004 at Lone Star, 2-1 favorite Sweet Catomine won over 4-1 Balletto and 10-1 Runway Model. The Exacta paid $29, the Trifecta $174, and the Superfecta $1561.

PACE, SPEED, AND FORM

Pace: She Says It Best (15-1) is a likely pacesetter, with favorite Folklore (7-2) also potentially interested in mixing it up. This won’t be paceless, however, as there are easily another four or five horses who won’t want to be more than a length or two off the lead.

Speed: Folklore hung a 99 Beyer in the Matron G1 in early October, winning by fourteen over this track. This is easily the best prep race any of these horses ran coming into this race, and a duplicated effort can annhilate this field. The second-best Beyer belings to Sensation (10-1), with a 98 over Belmont’s surface in the G3 Astarita. The competition there was average at best, however, and she’ll be facing much better fillies in this one.

Form: When you look at two-year-olds in the top classes like this, you want to see steady improvement from race-to-race, as well as a trainer willing to mix it up with better horses as the filly’s career progresses. We like what Todd Pletcher’s done with Adieu (3-1) so far, increasing the filly’s race distance and moving her into G1 class without losing any of her consistency. In three of her last four, her Beyers have been either 82 or 83. Let’s not lose sight that Adieu has faced Folklore three times, winning twice. Original Spin (6-1) is another interesting horse on the form, as she’s only raced twice, and is two-for-two. They moved her from her Maiden victory into a G3 at Arlington over one mile, and turned her from a pacesetter into a stalker, having a great deal of success picking off horses from just off the pace. Jerry Bailey gets this mount, and no one rides a stalker as well as Jerry Bailey.

LIVE LONGSHOT: WILD FIT - 6-1

From the DRF notes on October 1st’s Oakleaf G2 over the same distance as this race at Santa Anita: Wild Fit pulled a bit between foes early, stalked outside a rival, bid three deep on the second turn and outside the winner in the stretch and continued willingly but could not get by. Wild Fit ended up second, less than a length off of Diamond Omi (10-1), whose notes include phrases like “speed inside,” “stalked the pace along the rail” and “bid inside.” Omi won at nearly 9-1, while Wild Fit ran at 1-2, so you tell us who had the better trip here. It bears mentioning too that Wild Fit’s first two races (she’s only run three times) had her set up to be a closer, and the Oakleaf, her last, has her up stalking the pace. To us, this looks like a horse that’s learning.

OUR PICKS

We’re still a few days out from the post draw, which will make a little difference in our thoughts on this one, but the two horses to beat here are absolutely Folklore and Adieu. The question for Folklore will be whether the Matron victory was a spike, or, in the DRF’s Mike Watchmaker’s words, a “legit breakthrough.” Watchmaker also believes Adieu’s Beyer’s are “soft,” but we like steady and purposeful improvement against solid competition, and Adieu’s got that in her corner. Wild Fit is an interesting spoiler here, and anything you can get on her above 7-1 will be a gift. We’ll go with:
1) Adieu
2) Wild Fit
3) Folklore
And the value we’re looking for on win plays is Adieu above 3-1, Wild Fit above 7-1, or Folklore above 5-1.

JUVENILE, RACE 4 - ONE AND ONE SIXTEENTH MILES ON THE DIRT FOR TWO-YEAR-OLD COLTS

LAST YEAR…

28-1 Wilko shocked the crowd, beating favorite Afleet Alex and 7-1 Sun King. The Exacta paid $254, the Trifecta $1424, and the Superfecta $7150.

PACE, SPEED, AND FORM

Pace: Plenty of early speed in this one, with Brother Derek (20-1), Dawn Of War (20-1), Private Vow (8-1), and Sorcerer’s Stone (10-1) all looking for a piece of the lead. Big dogs Henny Hughes (5-1) and big favorite First Samurai (8-5) should be in prime stalking positions as well.

Speed: Henny Hughes may have a 105 Beyer on the board, but he still can’t find a way past First Samurai (who has a second-best 101 Beyer in this field). Henny has two seconds to First Samurai in his only two G1 appearances, and it’s hard to imagine this race being any different. Don’t ignore that Private Vow has two recent Beyers in the mid-90s either.

Form: Just like we said for the fillies, these are young horses and you want to see that the trainer has a plan and the horse shows progress. Private Vow was changed from a pacesetter to a stalker in his last, which stepped him from Allowance to G2 class. He responded well, with a very consistent performance to his previous (despite not facing top competition). First Samurai has also shown a scary consistency and precocious progress. He stepped from Allowance to G1 class, added furlongs to each race, and still puts up ridiculous numbers. We can’t tell if Stevie Wonderboy’s (8-1) last race is the sign of a horse that “gets it,” or just a horse that is strong enough to beat the competition he was facing at that moment. He took a bad post draw, fell behind early, and still managed to pass tiring rivals in the stretch for a five length victory. It’s not out of the question that he’s figuring things out, and maybe the speed here sets itself up nicely for a closer. Then again, maybe not.

LIVE LONGSHOT: PRIVATE VOW - 8-1

Mike Watchmaker’s notes say, “Flashy wins in last three; into the majors here.” Let’s look back to see what “minor leagues” means. He came in second in his first race at Churchill on July 3rd to Sorcerer’s Stone, who is in this race and a very solid competitor. Third place horse Captain Troy also went out and won his next, so that was a highly competitive race. On July 30, he broke his Maiden at Saratoga in a fairly full field featuring three other horses that went on to win their next races. Kid Carousel finished last, and ran in a G2 in September. Sharp Attack? Mid-pack, but has ascended to G1 company. Kilimanjaro finished fourth, broke her Maiden next out, and is on the bench right now, possibly injured. You can’t really count the August 29th Allowance race he won, as it only had three participants. He did beat Short Circuit in that one, who ran fifth in a G3 his next race out. We really like the September 17th Futurity, where he overcame being hung out three wide early and drew off for a wildly convincing victory. The knocks at this point are that he hasn’t run in over a month, and his workouts in Septmber and October have been spotty in quality. Still, the Beyer numbers are there (94, 93, 85 going three back), and we believe this horse can make some noise in this spot. Win? Doubtful. But we like him to hit the board.

OUR PICKS

We’re going to make a prediction: First Samurai is going to end up even money or worse on the board. Doesn’t matter, we’re going out on a limb and giving Samurai the Kentucky Derby right now too. He might even win the Triple Crown, break every racing record known to man, and save puppies from a burning building while he’s at it. He’s just that good. Henny Hughes will probably play bridesmaid again, and we’re thinking Private Vow is coming around. We’ll go with:
1) First Samurai
2) Private Vow
3) Henny Hughes
And we’ll hope to find value with First Samurai above even money on the board playing to win.

Breeders Cup Homepage [NTRA]
Daily Racing Form
Breeders Cup Pre-Entries [Boston Globe]
Previously: Christmas + Super Bowl + Horses = Breeders’ Cup [Oddjack]
2005 Breeders’ Cup Archive [Oddjack]
Horse Racing Archive [Oddjack]