Lost in the Fog

Breeders’ Cup: How Often Do The Favorites Win?

2005 Breeders’ Cup: Girls On The Grass, and Speed, Speed, Speed

READ MORE: 2005 Breeders Cup, Battle Won, Filly and Mare Turf, Intercontinental, Lost in the Fog, Sprint

Four days left to Breeders’ Cup Saturday, and we’ve still got six races to handicap. So today, again, you get the “twofer” where we’ll be breaking down the Filly & Mare Turf and Sprint races. We may or may not be taking the chalk in these, but we promise you’ll see at least one solid longshot pick out of us today - after the jump…

FILLY AND MARE TURF, RACE 5 - ONE AND ONE QUARTER MILES ON THE TURF FOR THREE-YEAR-OLD AND OLDER FILLIES AND MARES

LAST YEAR…

In 2004 at Lone Star, even money favorite Ouija Board won, over 16-1 shot Film Maker and 11-1 Wonder Again. The Exacta paid $43.40, the Trifecta $364 and the Superfecta $3,257.

PACE, SPEED, AND FORM

Pace: Intercontinental (8-1) and maybe Wend (15-1) are the two who will probably want a piece of the lead, with a variety of horses such as Wonder Again (6-1), Film Maker (15-1), Megahertz (5-1), and Riskaverse (15-1) all stalking close. Being a turf race, we hate the pacesetters. Stalkers and mid pack horses have performed well at Belmont at this distance on the grass.

Speed: Wonder Again’s 110 Beyer last July in the Diana is the best career number on the board, and she backed it up with a hard fought third in this race last year, posting a 105 Beyer. Ouija Board’s (5-2) 108 in that race was good enough for the win, and we wonder if she’s in good enough form to duplicate that effort. Her two races since last year’s BC victory include an ugly finish in a British G1, followed up by a G3 victory by only two lengths. Maybe that’s essentially an on-track workout, or maybe not. Luas Line (20-1) has an Irish pedigree, and a fairy uninspiring record if you stop looking at her form in late August. In September, however, she rang up a 108 in G1 competition over this track and surface. Of course, she gets shipped to Kentucky and reverts to the pedestrian horse she’s proven to be in the past. “Beyer” beware (god, we crack ourselves up).

Form: Like we just mentioned, Luas Line is an up-and-down filly at best, and if you play her, you’d better be prepared for the worst at any price. We really dig Megahertz’s consistency lately, peppering the calendar with four firsts and one second in five graded stakes races on the grass, keeping her speed numbers consistently in triple digits the whole time. Even more interesting for Megahertz is that she’s seven wins, two seconds in her last nine wearing blinkers. You know she’ll be accessorizing come Saturday

LIVE LONGSHOT: FILM MAKER - 15-1

Last year’s second place horse from this race returns, and gets no love on the Morning Line at 15-1. She’s got Patrick Valenzuela taking his second ride on her back, she’s coming off a pretty nice race in the Flower Bowl three weeks ago, where she lost to an out-of-her-head Riskaverse and a very tough Wonder Again. She’s a midpack horse, and with the volume of pace-pressing horses that could bunch up near the front, she might be able to run a more tactical race and find her spot from the back for her final run - and there aren’t many better jockeys to handle that task than Patrick Valenzuela.

OUR PICKS

We’re going to flat-out ignore the favorite in this spot. Ouija Board’s recent form isn’t as impressive as what she had coming into last year’s victory, and we’re going to leave her off the board. We like our longshot pick Film Maker a lot here at that price, which we’re almost absolutely certain will settle closer to 10-1 at post time. We’d play her at 8-1 if we had to. There’s also that little rule that says we shouldn’t take a front-runner on the grass, but we really like Intercontinental to hit the board. She’s a miler that’s stretching out, but Jerry Bailey’s won five of his last six aboard this mare, and she’s ready. Our third pick, not necessarily for third place, is Megahertz. Now there’s a horse you can set your watch by. Her usual effort will be good enough to contend. If Bobby Frankel has her primed, the rest of the field is in trouble. We’ll go with:
1) Intercontinental
2) Megahertz
3) Film Maker
And the value we’re looking for on win plays is Film Maker above 9-1, Megahertz above 9-2, Intercontinental north of 8-1, and Luas Line (we love us a long longshot) above 25-1.

SPRINT, RACE 6 - SIX FURLONGS ON THE DIRT FOR THREE-YEAR-OLD AND OLDER HORSES

LAST YEAR…

The profitable connection of Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez teamed up to take 7-2 Speightstown to the win over 4-1 Kela and big time longshot My Cousin Matt at 61-1. The Exacta was a modest $41.60, but the Trifecta popped $2,684, and the Superfecta was a $42,365 lottery ticket.

PACE, SPEED, AND FORM

Pace: Let’s get this out in the open right away: Lost in the Fog (EVEN) is going to do whatever he wants and can handily win this race. He’ll get out front, he’ll be contested, and he’ll pull away in the end and pay just about nothing in the win pool. That’s okay, if you’re a believer, you can single him in your multi-race wagers and not have to chug Mylanta while saying a rosary as they’re loading into the gate. Pomeroy (12-1) will probably push our favorite here, with Silver Train (15-1) a legit threat to get out front fast as well.

Speed: You want speed? The Sprint is chock full of it. There’s not a horse in this field who hasn’t hung a three figure Beyer in their last three, and the numbers for some of these horses in recent races are just gaudy. Wildcat Heir (15-1) threw a 117 in his last, while Lost in the Fog’s last few numbers rated at 114, 105, 116, 107, and 110. Just sick.

Form: Aside from the obvious Lost in the Fog ass-kissing we could do here (ten for ten, monster numbers, huge victories), there’s one really interesting chart that jumped out at us… but let’s talk about him next.

LIVE LONGSHOT: BATTLE WON - 15-1

In theory, you could look at Battle Won’s last race, which was a fifth place finish in an ungraded stakes, and think he doesn’t have a chance. The thing is, for some reason this trainer keeps trying this horse on the grass. He’s been okay there, but it’s on the dirt where he’s done his damage. His last four dirt sprint efforts have been stellar. All graded, with one win and three seconds. Oh, and the Beyer numbers have been between 106 and 108 in all four, which shows a solid consistency. His workouts have been very good leading up to this race, and he’s going to fly in under the radar for the general public. We don’t think you’ll end up seeing this horse at 15-1, but he’d be a value play at 10-1 for sure.

OUR PICKS

Lost in the Fog is a given. We’re also going to back our longshot pick here to hit the board. He may have a legitimate chance at pulling the upset, so why don’t we just predict it? Battle Won will win this race - by less than a length. We’re really unsure who to plug into third in this spot. When you’ve got a horse like the favorite, and a horse with a big juicy Morning Line, it’s hard to find a third. Plug Silver Train in that spot. We’ll go with:
1) Battle Won
2) Lost in the Fog
3) Silver Train
And the value we’re looking for on win plays is Battle Won anywhere above 7-1, Lost in the Fog at or above 2-1.

Breeders Cup Homepage [NTRA]
Daily Racing Form
Breeders Cup Pre-Entries [Boston Globe]
Previously: Christmas + Super Bowl + Horses = Breeders’ Cup [Oddjack]
Previously: Breeders’ Cup: Let The Kids Take A Lap (Juvenile Fillies and Juvenile) [Oddjack]
2005 Breeders’ Cup Archive [Oddjack]
Horse Racing Archive [Oddjack]

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Breeders’ Cup: How Often Do The Favorites Win?

READ MORE: 2005 Breeders Cup, First Samurai, Horse Racing, Leroidesanimaux, Lost in the Fog

2005 Breeders’ Cup: Girls On The Grass, and Speed, Speed, Speed

READ MORE: 2005 Breeders Cup, Battle Won, Filly and Mare Turf, Intercontinental, Lost in the Fog, Sprint