NFL Betting: Bet Against The Morons

READ MORE: Mike Martz, NFL Betting, NFL Coaches

When all other logic fails, bet against the bad coach. That’s the theory of Daily Aztec writer Joe Giovannetti who has been burned so many times by bad coaches in his betting career—he mentions the San Antonio nee New Orleans Saints’ Jim Haslett and Minnesota Vikings’ Mike Tice as consistent culprits—he’s just thrown up his hands. In particular, he hates ventricle-challenged St. Louis Rams’ coach Mike Martz :

“Martz’s decision-making reminds me of a drive my dad and I took from San Diego to San Francisco after my freshman year. To avoid traffic, Dad wanted to take some detours through some lesser-known freeways. As we cruised through L.A. just one hour into the trip, I sprinkled Dad with compliments centering around the words “genius” and “visionary.”

Somehow we ended up lost and sitting in a McDonald’s in Clovis. As I bit into my Big Mac, my dad drew up a strategy for the stretch-drive home. I stopped him and said, “Hey Dad, we were looking good there for a while, but let’s try to get back to Interstate 5.”

Gambling Success Means Playing Your Coaches Right [Daily Aztec](via American Gambling News)

NFL Futures: Katrina Kills Thousands, But Saves Haslett

READ MORE: Dennis Green, Head Coaches, Jim Haslett, Mike Martz, Mike Tice, NFL Futures

At the beginning of the NFL season, many bookmakers saw great payoff potential in New Orleans Saints’ head coach Jim Haslett being the first coach to get canned in this 2005 season at 5/1. But now Haslett has become the head coach of “America’s Team” and unless owner Tom TK is the cruelest man to ever walk the face of the earth his job is safe. However, things are not so good in Arizona and St. Louis. Even though Martz won this weekend against the Arizona Cardinals, there’s plenty of thoughts that if Martz continues his foggy-headed coaching and costs the team anymore games he could be the first to go. And with Dennis Green talking big when he first arrived and still not exactly tearing up the very weak NFC West, the thoughts are his very expensive tenure could also be cut short. And then, of course, there’s the Seattle Seahawks’ Mike Holmgren who has yet to guide his Seahawks to a playoff win. He could be one losing streak away from getting the booting, as does the pencil-eating giant, the Minnesota Vikings’ Mike Tice, who, um looks like he’s headed for a long season. And then there’s Dave Wannstedt, who even though is coaching at the University of Pittsburgh, will probably still get fired from some NFL team before the season’s over on general principle alone.

Which NFL Coach Will be Fired First? [Covers]
First Coach to be Fired NFC [BetTheNet]
Coach to be Fired or resign AFC [BetTheNet]

Football Betting: Why It’s Never Good to Bet on Mike Martz

READ MORE: Arizona Cardinals, Mike Martz, NFL Betting, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams

How much more do we need to learn about Mike Martz’ bumbling coaching ability than yesterday’s testicle-shriking 28-25 loss against the lowly San Francisco 49ers? The Rams are not that bad—as you can tell by the 200 yards of offense they put up in the 4th quarter. But, again, it’s his stroke-induced play calling, reticence to really play defense, and overreliance on big plays that ultimately get him cooked. As 6 1/2 point favorites yesterday and strong offensive showing in the preseason, the Rams game seemed like an easy chalk victory for most bettors even though the Rams were just 3-7 against the Niners in their last 10 meetings. And next week against the Arizona Cardinals, it seems like a perfect opportunity for a rebound. St. Louis may very well be favored next week at Arizona and win, but beware of this all important stat:

St. Louis is 1-4 in ATS at Arizona in their last five meetings.

We don’t expect this to be a huge line, but also be wary of any line giving Arizona more than 3 points in next week’s game or take the Cardinals. Mike Martz may be an “offensive play-calling genius” to some people, but to many others, the man is just a one-trick pony in the same way Buddy Ryan was for defenses. So does that mean we should expect a bounty on Cardinals’ kicker Neil Rackers next week? At least it’d be more interesting to watch.

Martz Takes Blame for Bad Play Call That Sealed Rams’ Fate [SF Gate]