Breeders’ Cup: The Mile and Distaff Championships

READ MORE: 2005 Breeders Cup, Distaff, Horse Racing, Leroidesanimaux, Mile

Breeders’ Cup Saturday is only three days away, and we’ve already broken down almost half the card. Today’s picks come from the Mile and Distaff Championships, and we’ll handicap the Turf and Classic Thursday and Friday respectively. Today’s picks, after the jump…

MILE, RACE 7 - ONE MILE ON THE TURF FOR THREE-YEAR-OLD AND OLDER HORSES

LAST YEAR…

Monster payouts abounded with 17-1 Singletary beating 31-1 Antonius Pius and 6-1 Six Perfections. The Exacta paid $1,496, the Trifecta $12,435, and the Superfecta a whopping $107,388.

PACE, SPEED, AND FORM

Pace: Leroidesanimaux (5-2) and Sand Springs (30-1) are likely to set the pace with Artie Schiller (6-1) pushing from just off. Most of the rest of these aren’t going to feel the need to contest early, which we think sets up just the way Leroi wants it. If he can dictate the race, he can smoke this field.

Speed: Leroidesanimaux has the best lifetime Beyer in this field at 115. Guess what he put up in his last race? Yeah, 115. He hasn’t posted less than a 109 in his last six either. There’s one other horse in this race that can beat Leroi’s 109 over their last ten, and that’s Limehouse (50-1) in an impressive Brooklyn over this track in June. He got a 112 for the effort, and hasn’t looked halfway decent since.

Form: Leroi’s won eight in a row, and has looked very solid in dispatching any and all competition that’s coming his way. Sand Springs is an interesting horse in this spot, as she’s running against the boys, and would likely be a top two or three choice had she been entered in the F&M Turf earlier on this card. We can’t imagine Todd Pletcher doesn’t know what he’s doing contesting Leroidesanimaux here when he could probably have put her in an easier spot in the F&M, but this is still asking a lot of a pretty good mare. She’s in good form though, with her two summer wins (one over this track and distance) being good enough to put her in contention here. Last year’s champ Singletary (8-1) was a feel-good story, prepped in the Oak Tree BC Mile to prep for this race last year, and went on to a solid victory in the BC Mile. He prepped with the Oak Tree again this year, and what’s freaky is the similarity in the lines between the two Oak Trees. Last year he laid about four lengths off the pace, closed to within one at the three-quarters pole, and made a run in the stretch to narrowly miss, posting a 106 Beyer. This year he laid about four off the pace, closed to within one at the three-quarters pole, and made a run in the stretch to win, posting a 107 Beyer. We’re just saying.

LIVE LONGSHOT: GORELLA - 30-1

She’s a French specialist at a mile whose one US race was the Queen Elizabeth Cup two weeks ago at Keeneland. She finished third by a head, showing she can close from off the pace and contend down the stretch. We like that trait on the grass, and we like her European connections, specifically trainer Patrick Biancone, who’s 18% with winners on the turf this year in the US. Can she win? Probably not. But if Sand Springs plays the rabbit to Leroidesanimaux, tiring both out terribly, then we might be able to see something freakish happen from the back of the pack.

OUR PICKS

Leroidesanimaux is as good a play as they come at or above the 5-2 Morning Line. We really believe in Singletary as well, which will once and for all prove the “creatures of habit” theory with a duplicated effort to last year. British horse Funfair (12-1) will be in the mix here too, and is undefeated in the States so far (3-3). His win in the Kelso over this surface was a narrow victory over Artie Schiller, but until this horse disappoints, we’re riding that pony. We’ll go with:
1) Leroidesanimaux
2) Singletary
3) Funfair
And the value we’re looking for on win plays is Leroi at or above 2-1, Singletary above the 8-1 Morning Line (not going to happen), and Funfair above 8-1.

DISTAFF, RACE 8 - ONE AND ONE EIGHTH MILES ON THE DIRT FOR THREE-YEAR-OLD AND OLDER FILLIES AND MARES

LAST YEAR…

Ashado, the 2-1 favorite, beat Storm Flag Flying at 9-2 and Stellar Jayne at 10-1. The Exacta (for the two favorites in the race, mind you) paid $34.80, the Trifecta $178, and the Superfecta $1,193.

PACE, SPEED, AND FORM

Pace: We like Capeside Lady (30-1) to get out early, with serious pressure from Stellar Jayne (4-1). Almost every other horse in this race is going to be nipping at their heels though.

Speed: If the speed figures are to be believed, this might be the deepest, most evenly matched of the BC races on the card. Ashado (5-2) has the best last race with a 105, and the second best Beyer (106) over her last ten to Society Selection’s (8-1) 107, although that race was ten back. There’s not a bunch of gaudy numbers peppering these forms, so we think it might be anyone’s race.

Form: Can’t dislike Ashado a bunch here, but her August effort in the Personal Ensign was flat at best. Thankfully, she bounced back to beat a tough field in the Beldame on October 1st. We’re going to toss the Ensign and look at her excellent G1 efforts otherwise this year. Happy Ticket (5-1) has been the mark of consistency throughout her career, with a ten win, two seconds record over twelve lifetime. She’s in good shape, has been working out well, and could threaten in this spot. Another horse we really like on form, and that we’re really looking forward to playing at an enormous price…

LIVE LONGSHOT: NOTHING BUT FUN - 30-1

We’re going to go waaaaay out on a limb on this one and predict the rookie of this bunch is going to play spoiler in some way on Saturday. She’s four-for-four lifetime, showed no ill effects to stretching out to one-and-one-sixteenth her last out. She’s stepping way up in class on this one, but her speed figures are comparable to some of the second-tier horses in this race, and there aren’t necessarily that many sure-thing tier-one horses to count on here.

OUR PICKS

Nothing But Fun is going to hit the board, but we like Happy Ticket and Ashado quite a bit here too. The Ticket has been running great lately, and doesn’t have that ding on her form like Ashado does, so maybe we’ll have to bump Ashado down the board a spot or two. We’ll go with:
1) Happy Ticket
2) Nothing But Fun
3) Ashado
And the value we’re looking for on win plays is Happy Ticket above 4-1, and any damn price you can get on Nothing But Fun.

Breeders Cup Homepage [NTRA]
Daily Racing Form
Breeders Cup Pre-Entries [Boston Globe]
Previously: Christmas + Super Bowl + Horses = Breeders’ Cup [Oddjack]
Previously: Breeders’ Cup: Let The Kids Take A Lap (Juvenile Fillies and Juvenile) [Oddjack]
Previously: Breeders’ Cup: Girls on the Grass and Speed, Speed, Speed (F&M Turf and Sprint) [Oddjack]
2005 Breeders’ Cup Archive [Oddjack]
Horse Racing Archive [Oddjack]