Free Pick Rundown: Cheeseheads Make Everybody Feel Like Fonzie

READ MORE: Free Pick Rundown, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football Betting, NFL Betting

· SharpJuice thinks that the emotion will run high tonight because it’s Monday Night and it’s Brett Favre. When doesn’t emotion run high on Monday Night Football when Brett Favre is playing? [SharpJuice]
· Al Dawg from Sedge Court took a huge pull from the WD-40 container this morning and thinks that a cold weather game and no Vikings offense equals over 44 points. [SCJ]
· CigarBookie hates the MNF game tonight, and says the line (GB -6) is “right where it needs to be.” He hit Auburn -7 and Indy -5.5 this weekend with ease, so if the Pack wins by six tonight, y’all need to hop on board. [CigarBookie]
· The Sports Advisors give Green Bay the huge ATS advantage. [Fox Sports]

Paddy Power’s Finger Firmly Pressed to Pulse of NFL

READ MORE: Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football, NFL Betting, Paddy Power

As we saw last week, Paddy Power proves that unless it’s just showing the straight line on an NFL game, it has no idea what it’s talking about. Observe this week’s lovely “First Touchdown Scorer” prop bet for the Minnesota Vikings. We’re sure Keenan Howry, deactivated from the team almost a month ago, is pleased to know he’s an 18/1 favorite to score first, ahead of tight end Jermaine Wiggins and personal friend of Paddy Power “Jimmy” Kleinsasser.

First Touchdown Scorer [PaddyPower]
Paddy Power: Handicapping MNF Like the Drunks They Are [Oddjack]

NFL Betting: Who’s Horny and Loves the Color Purple?

READ MORE: Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football, NFL Betting

If that’s you, eager bettor, well Covers has listed all the assurances you need that your foolish bet is a profitable one. Behold the five reason why the Minnesota Vikings and their toothless offense will cover their frozen asses at Lambeau tonight:

5. Dovonte Edwards eager to face Favre

As an undrafted rookie cornerback, Dovonte Edwards would figure to be at a huge disadvantage against a veteran gunslinger like Brett Favre. However, Edwards wants nothing more than the future Hall of Famer to chuck the pigskin in his direction Monday night.

“I want a chance to make a name for myself on ‘Monday Night Football,’” Edwards told the Twin Cities Pioneer Press. “As a corner, you got to want the quarterback to throw your way, otherwise it`s like you`re not even out there.”

Think that’s naïve rookie enthusiasm? Think again. Edwards was able to make the Vikings roster after playing the cornerback position for just two years in college. He began his Division I career as a wideout, and his ability to learn the position so quickly has earned him the respect of his position mates.

“That really is impressive,” said cornerback Antoine Winfield. “That`s a big change, going from receiver to corner in two years.”

Yep. Dovonte Edwards is pumped-up. Who doesn’t feel better? Proceed to the rest of the logic-defying reaches after the jump.

4. No more Lambeau mystique

The Packers used to be considered a lock at Lambeau Field, but the mystique surrounding the frozen tundra seems to have melted away.

The Pack have suffered some of their most embarrassing losses at Lambeau this season including a 17-3 loss to Detroit to open the campaign, a 26-24 loss to the brutal Cleveland Browns in Week 2 and a 20-10 drubbing by Pittsburgh two weeks ago. Green Bay is 1-3 at home this season with two paydays in those games.

The Vikings are 1-3 as an away team this season, but are hot off an impressive 24-21 victory at Giants stadium last week as 9-point underdogs.

3. Brad Johnson

With all due respect to Daunte Culpepper, the Vikings offense has been much more stable with backup Brad Johnson under center.

Whereas Culpepper ended his season with six touchdowns to 12 interceptions, Johnson has tossed three majors in his first two starts without a single pick. The Vikings no longer pose a deep threat with the 14-year vet at quarterback, but what he lacks in arm makes up in football smarts.

The Vikings credit last week’s game-winning drive to Johnson’s play calling, and believe his leadership will be a huge asset during the rest of campaign.

“Brad stayed calm,” receiver Nate Burleson told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. “He got in the huddle and ad-libbed a little bit. He went to each receiver and told us what route he wanted us to run. He was able to control it, to orchestrate what we did. We made the plays because he put us in position to.”

2. Faulty holder foiling Green Bay

If Monday’s night Vikings-Packers contest comes down a field goal (four of the last five meeting have), the Packers are at a huge disadvantage.

Holder B.J. Sander’s bumbling has cost kicker Ryan Longwell four field-goal tries and an extra-point attempt this season and the Pack’s moneyline backers two paydays. Sander dropped the snap on what would have been a chip-shot field goal against Detroit in Week 1, bobbled the snaps on a missed extra-point and field-goal attempt in the Week 3 tilt with Tampa Bay and mishandled the pigskin on two missed field goals the Week 7 defeat to Minnesota.

The Packers lost to the Buccaneers by just a single point and dropped a three-point decision to Minnesota.

“I think there has to be a chemistry there [and] a trust factor that develops [between the holder and kicker],” special teams coach John Bonamego told the Green Bay Press Gazette. “Knowing the ball is going to get down and get down a certain way and for Ryan and B.J., that’s still an ongoing process.”

Unfortunately for Bonamego, he has little choice but to stay with Sander. Backup holder Aaron Rodgers has proven even more unreliable than Sanders in practice.

1. Monday a must win for Minnesota

There’s still more than a month left in the regular season, but it’s already playoff time as far as the Vikings are concerned.

At 4-5, Monday night`s contest is a critical juncture for Minnesota’s playoff hopes. A loss would pretty much put the NFC North-leading Chicago Bears out of reach while a win would keep the postseason drive alive for another week.

“This is big. It gives us a chance to get to .500,” Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield said. “If we lose this one, we`re definitely going to be in trouble. We`re fighting to catch Chicago. We can`t afford to lose, especially in our division.”

The pressure has been intense for Minnesota to win these past four weeks and the team’s responded by winning three of those contests including two in a row since Culpepper was lost to injury. Expect the same from the Vikings when they face Green Bay on the Monday night stage.

NFL Betting: Packer Pickers Rejoice

READ MORE: Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football, NFL Betting

Once again, Covers does its weekly Monday point-counterpoint breakdown of tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup. Here are the handciapping gurus insights on why Brett Favre and the Gado-happy Packers will smoke the Vikings:

5. Offense settling down

Packer fans needn’t hold their breath anymore when Brett Favre slings the ball downfield.

Over the last two games, Green Bay’s offense has gone back to the basics as Favre is picking his spots instead of being picked off. After throwing 13 interceptions in the first seven games of the season, Favre has thrown just one interception in each of his last two starts. Green Bay went 1-1.

“For the most part, [I`ve played] well enough to win, but in some of these games, I don`t think I needed to take as many chances as I did,” Favre said Wednesday.

Read the rest of the genius-ness, after the jump.

4. Third-down

It’s an overlooked stat but when a team converts on third down, the impact stretches beyond the moving of the chains.

The extra yard or two gained on the next possession could be the difference between a field goal and a punt or may keep a tired defense on the field for an extra few minutes. So where’s this going? Green Bay ranks second in the NFL in third down tries, converting 45.3 percent.

The Vikings meanwhile, rank dead last in stopping third down attempts (45 percent).

3. No Daunte’s inferno

Over the last couple years, Vikings quarterback Daunte Culpepper has flourished at Lambeau Field, silencing any claims that the dome QB couldn’t perform on frozen tundra.

Culpepper, who will have season-ending knee surgery next week, has thrown 11 touchdowns in his last three trips to Green Bay without any interceptions. The result helped Minnesota walk out of Green Bay with a win and a pocket full of cash three straight times.

In his last start in Green Bay, Culpepper threw four touchdowns on 19-of-29 passing to help his Vikings bounce back from a 17-0 halftime deficit to win the NFC Wild Card game 31-17.

2. Good Gado

Four touchdowns later and Samkon Gado’s first start as an NFL running back was a success.

Gado, who is listed as fifth on the depth chart, rushed for three touchdowns while catching for another against Atlanta last week.

He did fumble twice en route to 103 yards on the ground, but his emergence should give the Packers confidence in the backfield. That should also begin to open up some gaps downfield for the league’s fifth-ranked air attack.

1. Brad Johnson

Before you hop on the 37-year old Brad Johnson train, think back to his performance in Minnesota’s win over New York last week.

Johnson connected on just 56 of his passes and threw for only 144 yards as Minnesota finished with its worst yardage output of the year. Despite this, the Vikings still pulled off a 24-21 upset over the heavily favored Giants with special teams pitching in all three majors.

NFL Betting: No Boat Orgy Can Save Them Now

READ MORE: Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football, NFL Betting

Not surprisingly, bettors are taking out second and third mortgages to throw money at the Green Bay Packers for tonight’s Monday night matchup between the Cabezas de Queso and the Vikings de Humpo in a stultifying NFC North battle. The Vikes opened as 3 1/2 point dogs, but have since been bounced up to 5 1/2 and 6 at some sportsbooks thanks to the massive amount of change being chucked at Green Bay. The reason? Well, it’s obvious. Minnesota suffers from a startling lack of offense and a mongoloid coach. The Vikings can’t rely on Darren Sharper every week and with the emergence of the Nigerian Nobody, Green Bay running back Samkon Gado, it’s pretty easy to see why people are banking on the Vikings lack of fire-power to keep the score within a touchdown.

No Offense: Bettors Fading Minnesota [Covers]

NFL Betting: No Daunte, No Problem

READ MORE: Brad Johnson, Daunte Culpepper, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, NFL Betting

That’s the sentiment according to Covers, which says that the 1 1/2 points the Vikings are getting as home underdogs this week against Detroit is something to look into—even without quarterback Daunte Culpepper. Covers makes a point that when Culpepper was absent for three games in 2003. Minnesota won and covered all three contests. However, this is a different Vikings team since then, but a home underdog against a (weak) division rival is not the worst thing in the world. Even with Brad Johnson at quarterback.

Culpepper Injury a Positive For Vikings? [Covers]
Detroit at Minnesota [Covers]

Chopping Lines: We Do Like Wearing Viking Costumes

READ MORE: Atlanta Falcons, Chopping Lines, Minnesota Vikings, NFL Betting

Sun. 1 p.m.

Minnesota Vikings (1-2)

Atlanta Falcons (2-1)

Best Line: MIN +6, ATL -5.5

Last week Daunte Culpepper finally arrived and showed us that he’s still the big, lumbering quarterback who can still find non-ganja smoking receivers when he needs to and make the big play. Mwelde Moore is back again and Michael Bennent fantasy owners are pissed. We’re still not impressed with Atlanta so far and don’t see any reason they should be getting this many points. Maybe Minnesota’s defense isn’t as improved as it should be, but we still like the Vikings winning in a shoot-out if it comes down to it. Plus, there’s always the Mike Tice factor. He’s a fantastic coach. (We had to say that because he got us Superbowl tickets last year.)

PICK!: MIN +6

Chopping Lines: Pray that Pennington’s Shoulder Doesn’t Fall Off

READ MORE: A.J. Benza, Chopping Lines, Minnesota Vikings, NFL Betting, New York Jets

7:30 p.m.

Minnesota Vikings (1-0-0)

at

New York Jets (1-0-0)

Best Line: Jets -1, Vikings +2

New York Jets fans need to stop crying about quarterback Chad Pennington’s throwing arm. Somewhere through their tears they need to see the comforting vision of back-up Jay Fiedler hopping onto the field and competently taking over. And, maybe just maybe, actually making the Jets his team to lead. I’m not wishing further injuries on the brittle Pennington - who’s now wearing a Life Alert necklace - but come the day he has fallen and can’t get up, Fiedler’s athleticism, intelligence and experience make him a solid backup. And that’s important because the Jets new coordinator, Mike Heimerdinger, is looking to (friggin’ finally!) open up the offense and take more vertical shots in the passing game. On the running side, look for Curtis Martin to, once again, step on Father Time’s nutsack and chew up at least 1,000 yards for the 11th consecutive season. Adding Ty Law to the defensive mix doesn’t hurt either. A nice nugget to tuck away is that the Jets are 11-6 vs. the number in the pre-season and, even more important, 3-1 after a straight-up loss.

Meanwhile, the marathon daisy chain that leads straight to the weiner of Minnesota Viking head coach Mike Tice has to be snipped right here. You either have to get to the Super Bowl or sell Super Bowl tickets on the side. You can’t do both, Mikey. The absense of Randy Moss leaves a hole in this team bigger than my bald spot under a Kleig light. And - my insiders tell me Tice’s new offensive scheme means having Daunte Culpepper throw fewer passes in order to establish a better running game. Whatever. Way to waste an atomic arm. Tice’s nonchalance in the pre-season and the Jets playing at home add up to the Jets winning by a TD or so.

BENZAPICK!: Jets -1
(YTD 1-1)