MLB Betting: These Men Could Ruin Your Life
READ MORE: Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros, MLB, Umpires", World Series Betting
We know the umpires are bound to ruin this series for the Astros. Maybe a blown called third strike, or a questionable foul ball, or perhaps even a misinterpreation of the rules regarding the amount of facial hair legally allowed on one ball club will ultimately stick a flaming trident into the resilient Astros(TOD). But it’s bound to happen. This has become an umpire’s series. Hence, tonight’s game 3 home plate umpire Jerry Layne’s scouting report is worth a look:
“Layne will handle second base in Game One, and take over home plate for Game Three. Layne’s strike zone is inconsistent, and his hot temper has a tendency to turn a bad situation into a disaster.”
The under is 5-1-2 in games that Layne has umped behind the plate against the White Sox and 5-1 in his last six against the Astros. So, we can reasonably see that with an under of 7 sitting on the board right now, a nice 4-2 game is in store for us. However, if we get to game 6, when umpire Angel Hernandez steps behind the plate, well, look out:
“Yuck.not a good umpire. His strike zone has the consistency of a pair of dice, and his bad attitude doesn’t help matters. Nothing is more scary than betting a game where Angel is behind the plate. You simply have no idea what is going to happen when he calls balls and strikes. Hernandez is the first Cuban-born umpire in the majors, so he does have something going for him. He’ll handle Game Six behind the plate. Joe West will be the first base umpire for that game, so be prepared for some type of controversial play that will decide the game and the series.”
Oof. Well, we’re thinking that this definitely means it’ll go six games—and end tragically for the Astros. Maybe -175 on Oswalt tonight isn’t a bad play after all?
Scouting The World Series Umpires [Eye On Gambling]
MLB Betting: Congratulations Padres! Now, Leave.
READ MORE: Futures, MLB, MLB Betting, Playoffs", San Diego Padres
After winning the National League West pennant last night, the San Diego Padres have quickly established themselves as one of the most chump-tastic franchises ever to reach the postseason, sporting a lofty 79-79 record, which in many ways has oddsmakers dismissing them from the playoffs all together. Right now, the Padres are +800 to win the National League pennant according to bookmaker BetonSports.com and may see even greater odds from other sportsbooks as soon as they finish making their post-season lines. The Padres will most likely face the St. Louis Cardinals—barring the Philadelphia Phillies win the wildcard(NOPE)—which will most likely be done in three games. However, our Corky-esque sibling over at Deadspin seems a bit worried about his Cardinals for some reason. Ah, Midwesterners.
Odds Stacked Against Padres [Covers]
No More Dreaming [SF Gate]
MLB Futures Betting: Time to Clean Your Bloody Sock?
READ MORE: Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Futures Betting, MLB, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays
Since last year’s remarkable World Series victory, public bettors prove that the Boston Red Sox are still the fair-haired boys in the crowded American League East. The Bloody Sox are -165 favorites followed by the always lurking, always dangerous, New York Yankees at -105. Typical.
However, Covers points out that with the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays still hanging on in the division—and with their respective prices currently at +500 and +2000 to win it all—there may be some great value in taking one of those teams. But let’s not get batshit crazy about this—let’s wait until the trade deadline before taking out third mortgages to bet on the Blue Jays.
MLB Betting: New Moon on Monday
READ MORE: MLB, Sports Betting
Our number-crunching neighbors to the north at Covers have once again served up a heaping pile of minutiae as they examine the won-loss records of major league baseball teams entering into an opening series. The Covers crew examines the Cleveland/Oakland, Boston/Tampa, Cincinnati/Los Angeles, and San Francisco/Chicago games which all begin tonight and which teams have the advantage in opening games. Covers points out that Tampa Bay won the opening game of last week’s series against the Red Sox. Does that mean we should take them for a win tonight? We learned our lesson last week about betting against the Red Sox and David Wells. We’ll pass this time around. Thanks.
Game One Gambles [Covers]
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Chopping Lines: Three Games to Make Wednesday Go Quicker
READ MORE: Chopping Lines, Day Games, MLB, Sports Betting
12:35 p.m.
Houston Astros (47-46, A.Pettite)
at
Pittsburgh Pirates (40-54, J.Fogg)
Line: Houston -158, O/U 8
Josh Fogg has faced the Astros twice this season and lost twice. Pettite has a split with the Pirates, but only gave up two runs between both games. The Astros are making a push for a wildcard and the Pittsburgh Pirates are in trade talks to get the Florida Marlins’ Mike Lowell’s one nut and .232 average to play third base for them. Easy.
Pick!: Astros and Under
1:05 p.m.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (32-63, M. Hendrickson)
at
Boston Red Sox (51-42, D. Wells)
Line: Tampa Bay +240, 10.5 o/u
Tampa Bay Devil Ray’s starter Mark Hendrickson stands at 6’9 inches tall. David Wells waddles at 6’9 inches wide. In most cases, we’d take the Red Sox easily with this game. However, we’re going to go out on a shaky limb and predict that during a humid day game, Wells’ girth will smash the line. Boston has to drop two of three from the Devil Rays or the AL East just won’t be that interesting anymore. Fun prop bet would be over/under on the amount of David Well’s back sweat.
Pick!: Tampa Bay and Over.
Atlanta Braves (53-42, J. Smoltz)
at
San Francisco Giants (41-52,N. Lowry)
Line: Atl -168, o/u 8
Atlanta is 8-2 in John Smoltz’s last ten starts and the incredibly bland San Franciso Giants are no match for him and his Jeffrey Tambor hairline. This is the time for Atlanta’s usual second-half stand and losing ground on the Washington Nationals is not going to happen on Smoltz’s watch. And Noah Lowry is, well, not very good, even though he leads the team in ERA at 4.52. Andruw Jones may hit a ball to Alcatrazz this afternoon.
Pick!: Atlanta and Over
Bet here: MLB Betting [Bodog]
MLB Betting: A Lowe Down Dirty Shame
READ MORE: Derek Lowe, MLB, Sports Betting
Covers has once again called out a struggling pitcher for screwing up bettor’s pockets and this time it’s Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher—and Boston Red Sox post-season Lazarus—Derek Lowe. Lowe’s last five consecutive losses, homer happy pitching, and lack of run support have made him a money loser and playing at Citizen’s Bank Ballpark where homeruns to to the power alleys can be hit with broken twigs does not make him an attractive play at all for tomorrow night’s start. It seems like every year Derek Lowe is doing something wrong. Maybe he just needs a hug?
MLB Betting: Wade Miller Sucks the Mighty Python
READ MORE: 5-Inning Bets, MLB, Sports Betting, Wade Miller
We’ll admit it. We were fooled by the prospects of the once better-than-average Houston Astros’ pitcher Wade Miller moving his rag arm over to Beantown with the hopes of a career resurgence. We drafted him relatively high on our fantasy team and, lo, even boasted about it convincing ourselves that he was an absolute steal in the 14th round. Well, luckiliy we’ve traded him away and can wash our hands clean of the Wade Miller experience. Those of you out there content to to take 5-inning flyers on Miller every outing he pitches, well, you’re not so lucky. In fact, you’re probably miserable and taking out pay day loans every fifth day just to make up for your losses. Well, Covers is on top of the phenomenon and is issuing a Defcon warning out about Miller’s final starts and how you shouldn’t bet on this guy even if he was pitching in your company’s softball game.
MLB Betting: The Rules For a Successful Betting Season
READ MORE: Betting Rules, MLB, Sports Betting
In the same way women have rules for dating and emasculating men for their own personal gain, there are also rules for betting on major league baseball. The Molson guzzling Tyler Durdens over at Covers have outlined a few rules that every hardluck bettor with an eye on coming out ahead throughout the insufferably long baseball season should abide by. The first rule of baseball betting? Don’t bet on the favorites. The second rule of baseball betting? Don’t talk about betting on the favorites. Or something like that.
MLB Betting: Yankess vs. Red Sox Part Deux
READ MORE: MLB, Sports Betting
So, didn’t we say that something screwy would happen? Red Sox put up 4 in the first then the Yankees come back, then Ortiz gives them the lead, then Yankees tie it, then…Schilling. As soon as the bloody socked yapper strode to the mound and faced Gary Sheffield you knew something was amiss. And Alex Rodriguez made him pay for it with a two-run bomb, Mariano Rivera comes into close, game over. That -101 line wasn’t deceiving, it was pretty much dead nuts perfect. Now, today’s match-up is a completely different story, Boston is a -151 favorite with the pear-shaped booze hound, David Wells, pitching for the Red Sox. The Yankees? Well, they trot out one of their latest pitching acquisitions, bloop ball speicalist Tim Redding and his 9.10 ERA. We don’t expect Redding to last more than two innings and, in fact, we have a side bet that says he makes less than 25 pitches. At -151, the odds aren’t a great pay-off for Red Sox, but this may be the only game in the series that we’d be our adopted Ethiopian baby on the Red Sox.
Yankees At Red Sox [Covers]
MLB Betting: Teams To Bet On This Second Half
READ MORE: MLB, Sports Betting
So, you’re finally finished dreading the last half of the season and all about finally using some of that tax return money for something useful. Betting on the second half of the baseball season is a lot easier. You can see the hot teams, the clunkers, and the ones that are pretenders. So, the clever Canadian elves at Covers have done all the kooky math and the apt breakdowns and let us know who we should be betting on from July to October. And wouldn’t you know it that the Houston Astros are doing the same thing they did last year and top the list? Too bad there’s no Beltran-like trade that’s possible.
MLB Top 5 Second Half Scorchers [Covers]
Yankees/Red Sox: When Is This Not the Game of the Day?
READ MORE: MLB, Sports Betting
See what happens when you bet rivalry games? You get a nosebleed. Sometimes it’s from an ornery Yankees’ fan carrying a piece of wood, but most often it’s from the unpredictable swings of the game. So, the second half of the season kicks off with the continuation of the ongoing biblical battle between the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees. Right now, oddsmakers have the Red Sox a puny -101 favorite, giving them the slight edge due to their first place record, homefield advantage, and the unwieldy return of Curt Schilling to the bullpen. Covers breaks down all of the angles, but like any rivalry game, we’ve found it’s best to stay away from betting on such matters. The pick ‘em is always in effect and something crazy is bound to happen that usually defies all odds, logic, and reasonable gambling intuition. The intangibles in Yankees/Red Sox make all of these lines irrelevant. If you’re going to bet on one game today, why not jump on the Horacio Ramirez bandwagon and sidle up to the underdog Atlanta Braves this evening?
Game of the Day: Yanks at Red Sox [Covers[
Yankees vs. Red Sox Lines [Covers]
Home Run Derby: I Like It When You Call Me Big Papi
READ MORE: MLB, Sports Betting
So, the kooky whiskey bums at Covers are all confused by the Home Run Derby odds. They’re confused because Boston Red Sox’s designated hitter David Ortiz is the favorite, even though he’s not the league leader in home runs in the competition. In fact, he’s not even in the top ten. But, then again, when you look at the field of competition, it’s easy to see why many bettors would take a flyer on Ortiz(+280). Has the home run derby gone the way of the NBA dunk contest? It seems that way with this type of field:
Philadelphia`s Bobby Abreu (+500, Venezuela), Pittsburgh`s Jason Bay (+800, Canada), Atlanta`s Andruw Jones (+400, the Netherlands), Detroit`s Ivan Rodriguez (+1000, Puerto Rico), Los Angeles Dodgers` Hee-Seop Choi (+1200, Korea) and Texas` Mark Teixeira (+450, United States) round out the other six competitors.
You would think that they could use some part of Barry Bonds’ body to participate. Or they should make it like a cage match in WWF and start bringing back special super stars. Like put Jose Canseco in the competition and if he wins it, he gets into the Hall of Fame. Just something. Instead we’ll be watching Hee-Sop Choi go head-to-head with Jason Bay. Christ.
Book: HR Derby ‘Popularity’ Contest [Covers]
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