Chopping Lines: Nick Kaczur Will End Up On the Horse Trailer If The Patriots Win

READ MORE: Chopping Lines, Indianapolis Colts, NFL Betting, New England Patriots

9 p.m.

New England Patriots (4-3)

Best Line: PATS +4.5, COLTS -3.5

Well, it’s here. It’s the game that ABC has been waiting for all year. It’s the game that football fans have been waiting for all year. If the Patriots were 2-6, this would still be the game of the year. And how come? As much as the Colts may be awarded some psychological points for winning this game at Foxboro tonight, the bottom line is still that they’re the better team. If they end up the season 15 and 1, they’ll get homefield. And the Patriots(if they get through the first-round of the playoffs) will have to head to Turf World for once and then prove they’re still the team to beat. Not tonight, though. Of all the breakdowns that have been debated this afternoon, the most crucial is the play of Patriots’ rookie tackle Nick Kaczur who will have the unenviable task of keeping Dwight Freeney from decapitating Tom Brady before halftime. Sure, there will be double-teams galore, but it’s pretty obvious at this point that Colts’ defense has a lot of weapons and should be able to disrupt a Weis-less offense for the Patriots. The Colts are the better team and will win this game. And, dammit, we think they’ll cover. Enough of Peyton Manning and his Brokeback Mountain tendencies. We think it’s time for torch passing.

PICK!: INDY -3.5

Free Pick Rundown: And The River Shall Open For The Righteous

READ MORE: Free Pick Rundown, Indianapolis Colts, NFL Betting, New England Patriots

· T-Monye SharpJuice is essentially putting everything he owns on the Patriots and the points and teasing things left and right. He loves this game. Correction: He looooooves this game. [SharpJuice]

· The AGN chap is letting it be known that he loves the Patriots so much, he actually has them giving points tonight. [AGN]

· The Sedge Court Journal chaps finally sober up in time to make some picks before 8 p.m. And they take the Colts because they think the Patriots’ line is one bad hit away from having a stroke. Whoops. [SCJ]

· Gambling 911’s titular little handicapper Lisa Perry loves the Colts to win, but Pats to cover. [G911]

· Of course, Turn Up The Juice is out smoking endo, sippin’ on Gin and…juice?…so they have no picks up at this point. But they will later. We’re betting they’ll take the Patriots because they love home dogs and Cesar once had a fling with Patriots wide out David Givens. [TurnUptheJuice]

NFL Betting: The Colts Are A Team of Destiny. Tonight.

READ MORE: Indianapolis Colts, Monday Night Football, NFL Betting, New England Patriots

So, you thought you had it all figured out there Mr. Home Dog-lover, huh? Do you really think a game like this wouldn’t warrant a contrarian viewpoint? One from the same publication, no less? Well, consider Covers list of the five reasons why the Colts will cover the four points reason no. 434 we won’t touch this game:

No. 1 - The law of averages The law of averages states, “The principle holding that probability will influence all occurrences in the long term.”

Huh?

What this says, quite cryptically, is that all these numbers and streaks that football analysts are throwing around have to come to an end sometime. So what if Peyton Manning is 2-9 versus the Pats in his career? Who cares that Indianapolis hasn’t beaten New England since 2000?

Every dog has his day, right?

More vague, uninspired reasoning after the jump.

No. 2 - Dwight Freeney

Dwight Freeney is arguably the most dynamic and dominant defensive player in the game today.

The Indianapolis Colts defensive end is the catalyst of an Indy defense that leads the NFL in points allowed (11 points per game) and is tops in the league in sacks, getting to the quarterback 26 times in seven games.

Freeney has six sacks on the season and that’s going up against the likes of Jonathan Ogden and Orlando Pace. Now the Patriots think they can handle this guy with rookie Nick Kaczur?

Let’s just say I wouldn’t want to be Tom Brady’s blindside Monday night.

No. 3 - Edgerrin James

The Patriots stopped the Buffalo Bills last week, but they didn`t stop Willis McGahee. The Bills running back piled up 136 yards on the ground and another 21 yards receiving in a 21-16 loss.

Now into Foxboro comes Edgerrin James, perhaps the games most dynamic offensive player, playing the best football of his seven-year career.

James has over 800 yards rushing and eight touchdowns through the first seven games and watching him play this season you are witnessing a running back thriving as the feature player on the league’s most lethal offense.

No. 4 – Indy is coming off a bye

Do you know what Indy coach Tony Dungy was doing last week while the Patriots were battling the Buffalo Bills?

He was fishing in the Gulf of Mexico.

And while Dungy was doing that, Manning was off getting his jersey retired at Tennessee and James and Marvin Harrison were off somewhere not getting beat up by a host of NFL linebackers.

I’m sure New England was in the back of the Colts’ minds but the bye week enabled Indianapolis to get away and recharge their batteries before returning to work this week, fresh and focused on the task at hand- beating the New England Patriots.

No. 5 - New England’s injuries

Last but certainly not least, the aforementioned injuries.

We all know there is no one better than Bill Belichick at getting the most out his players and doing the best despite losing starters to injuries. Yadda, yadda, yadda.

But come on, this is ridiculous. Rodney Harrison, Tyrone Poole, Randall Gay, Richard Seymour, do I need to go on?

Couple this with Manning and Co. starting to show their fangs in the passing game and I say if Belichick can pull this one off he should go down in the annals of history with the likes of Einstein and Plato.

Five Reasons The Colts Will Cover [Covers]

NFL Betting: Corey Dillon’s Assault Will Weaken Colts D And More

READ MORE: Monday Night Football, NFL Betting, New England Patriots

Here’s more insight into the whole Colts/Patriots madness that will unleash itself on the windy fields of Foxboro as Peyton Manning tries desperately to get the Massachusetts monkey off of his back. Covers breaks down the five reasons why you should feel comofortable taking the Patriots and the four points tonight:

No. 5 - Corey Dillon

The Patriots running back is listed as questionable with a gimpy ankle, but that didn’t stop him from snatching a victory from Buffalo last week. Dillon wasn’t even expected to step on the gridiron Sunday night, but was pressed into service in the second quarter after fullback Patrick Pass pulled a hammy. He proceeded to rip the Bills for 72 yards and a pair of majors, leading New England to a 21-16 come-from-behind victory.There’s been a lot of talk about how much better Indy’s rush defense is since acquiring defensive tackle Corey Simon from Philadelphia in the offseason. But let’s not forget he registered just one tackle when Dillon shredded the Eagles for 106 yards and a major when the Pats took the Super Bowl last season.

Rest of the reasoning, after the jump.

No. 4 - Tedy Bruschi

It’s always helpful to have a little inspiration on your side in a huge rivalry game like this one, and having a guy come back from a stroke to make tackles for you seems to fit that bill.

Eight months ago Tedy Bruschi was lying in a hospital bed with blurred vision and half his body numb. Most players would’ve called it a career at that point, or at least taken a season off. But Bruschi had the doctors cork up the hole in his heart and was back on the gridiron last week to captain the New England defense against the Bills. He registered two solo tackles and assisted on five others as the Pats downed Buffalo 21-16, the fewest points they’ve allowed all season.

No. 3 – Peyton’s Foxboro futility

Every great warrior has an Achilles’ heel and Peyton Manning`s is Gillette Stadium.

The Colts quarterback is 0-7 in his career at Foxboro and has lost and failed to cover against New England six straight times. Peyton’s as tough as they come mentally, but that kind of losing streak has to get inside a guy’s head. How else do you account for the fact the Colts only managed a field goal in last year’s divisional playoff after Manning had tossed 49 regular-season TDs?

It looks like the Pats are giving the rest of the Colts their fair share of brain craps too. Indy’s turned the ball over six times in the last two meetings between these teams.

No. 2 – Indy’s prone to the post-bye week blues

You might be tempted to think that Indy’s Week 8 layoff couldn’t have come at a better time. After all, it gave them another week to prepare for Bill Belichick’s battered crew. But when you’re on a roll like the 7-0 Colts are, the last thing you want is to sit around for 14 days.

Remember what happened when they came off their Week 6 bye last season? The Colts were 4-1 and had four paydays when Jacksonville beat them 27-24 as 9-point dogs. Rust appeared to play a big role in the loss. Indy fumbled twice, were booked for 12 penalties and allowed the Jags to score on their last three possessions.

No. 1 – No pressure on the Pats

Players on both teams want to win this game like they want their next breath, but it’s the Colts who have so much more to lose.

With six straight losses to New England, it’s widely believed Indy needs to win this game to get over that psychological hurdle. They’ve cruised through their first seven tilts of the season and the injury-riddled Patriots have never appeared more vulnerable, but that only ratchets up the pressure on the Colts to get a ‘W’.

By contrast, a New England loss will only be written off as a product of those all injuries, so the Pats can play free and easy. A Colts loss will be regarded as a disaster, and they’ll be playing behind the eight ball. You’ve also got to like New England’s record as an underdog. The defending champs have only failed to cover once in the last nine times they’ve gotten points.

Five Reasons The Patriots Will Cover [Covers]

NFL Betting: Colts, Pats, Lather, Rinse…Repeat?

READ MORE: Indianapolis Colts, NFL Betting, New England Patriots

We wouldn’t touch this game if we were wearing Tedy Bruschi’s neck brace, but for those of you who are gluttons for punishment, take into consideration some of these thoughts on tonight’s game between the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts.

· “Hey, if the torch gets passed on Monday night, so be it. I just know this Patriots team will go down swinging. And if I were the guys from NFL Films, I wouldn’t cancel next summer’s trip to the Kraft house just yet.” [Bill Simmons]

· “It’s impossible to like New England tonight, which is why they’ll probably win.” [Peter King]

· In order for the Indianapolis Colts to beat their nemesis New England tonight, they’ll have to neutralize Patriots linebacker Tedy Bruschi.And they have to do it on two levels: 1.) Prevent him from making game-altering plays; 2.) Muffle his motivational voice. [Fort Wayne News-Sentinel]

· “Conventional wisdom says take the Patriots at home against the Colts, because history says you’ll be right every time. History can only take you so far, because this game is about here and now, and I don’t believe in ghosts.” [Pat Kirwan, NFL.com]

· “Perhaps the Patriots dominance of the Colts isn’t mental, but mystical.” [Miami Herald]

· Tonight’s weather forecast for the Colts-Patriots game in Foxborough, Mass., calls for an evening low of 40 degrees with a 20 percent chance of precipitation. Since 1998, the Colts are 3-6 in games where the temperature at kickoff was 38 degrees or lower.[Indianapolis Star]

Monday Morning Oddsline

READ MORE: Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, Oddjack's Daily Line

BEST BETS ON TONIGHT’S COLTS/PATS TILT
· Bodog’s Over/Under (48.5) - OVER
· SportsBetting.com’s Edgerrin James Over/Under rushing total (104.5) - UNDER
· SportsBetting’s Adjusted Line - PATS -3.5 (+240)

WHAT WE’VE GOT IN THE OFFICE POOL
· When is that weird guy in the mail room finally going to ditch the day job to fulfill his dream of becoming a real-life pirate? MARCH 2006
· When will Terrell Owens suit up in an Eagles uniform again? WEEK THIRTEEN
· Predicted opening weekend take for Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $110M

NFL Props: Betting on Bruschi’s Rejuvenation

READ MORE: NFL Betting, NFL Props, New England Patriots, Tedy Bruschi

After last night’s New England Patriots victory(no cover) over the Buffalo Bills, the post-game press conference featuring recently activated linebacker Tedy Bruschi was inevitable. The press loves any emotional torque to alleviate the redundancy of daily NFL beat reporting. And now the sports books are piling on as well as the sap-loving cads at BetCRIS have put out some Bruschi props for football fans to gush about:

After suffering from a stroke 8 ½ months ago, the New England Patriots star linebacker Tedy Bruschi returned to practice last week. Now, the only thing standing in Bruschi’s way is coach Belichick’s decision on when he feels he’ll be ready to set foot on the grind iron once again.

With the anticipation of Tedy’s triumphant return to the field, executives at BetCRIS Sportsbook have posted odds on the season that lies ahead for Bruschi and when he’ll intercept his first ball.

TEDY BRUSCHI (NE) FIRST INTERCEPTION OF THE YEAR WILL BE IN WEEK # ?

o 1ST INTERCEPTION IN WEEK #8 6-1
o 1ST INTERCEPTION IN WEEK #9 5-1
o 1ST INTERCEPTION IN WEEK #10 6-1
o 1ST INTERCEPTION IN WEEK #11 7-1
o 1ST INTERCEPTION IN WEEK #12 8-1
o 1ST INTERCEPTION IN WEEK #13 9-1
o 1ST INTERCEPTION IN WEEK #14 10-1
o 1ST INTERCEPTION IN WEEK #15 11-1
o 1ST INTERCEPTION IN WEEK #16 12-1
o 1ST INTERCEPTION IN WEEK #17 13-1
o HE WILL HAVE NO INTERCEPTIONS 2.4-1

We’d be curious to see a future bet on Bruschi’s post-football career, which will most likely find very short odds on him being strapped in a wheelchair. Hey, he’s a gamer, though.

Tedy Bruschi Lines [BetCRIS]

Chopping Lines: Bonus Benza - Tom Brady Wants To Give You Three

READ MORE: BENZAPick!, Carolina Panthers, Chopping Lines, New England Patriots

Sunday, 1PM

New England Patriots (1-0)

vs

Carolina Panthers (0-1)

Best Line: Pats -3, Panthers +4, O/U 43.5-44.5

I never saw a team so good, yet so hated at the same time. And for anybody who really gets their rocks off when the Patriots lose a game, this five-week stretch wil find you in bed, with the lights out, your shorts down around your ankles and an opened jar of Jergens hand soap on your night table. The Patriots are about to become the first team in NFL history to play four games on the road in five weeks against teams that averaged 11 wins last season. But, I bet nothing gets them more pissed off than Sports Illustrated chosing Carolina to unseat them as Super Bowl champs. I don’t see that grit in Carolina’s eyes yet, and I certainly didn’t see it when they took a dive last week against the inferior Saints. I’m a Patriot-hater to the bone, but I think last week’s win over the Raiders was the baptism of all baptisms for Tom Brady. The way the normally reserved QB roused up his fans while jumping in the end zone in the pre-game fun was a better show than the Stones put on. The number is too small here. Brady Bunch does it again

BenzaPICK! - PATS -3

Chopping Lines: Mirth of a Raider Nation

READ MORE: Chopping Lines, NFL Betting, New England Patriots, Oakland Raiders

Today, our favorite ziti-eating expert, A.J. Benza, breaks down tonight’s Oakland Raiders/New England Patriots game for us to a point where it’s much too long to fit onto the front page. Honestly, the guy hasn’t written this much since he published that “Fame: Ain’t It a Bitch” book. But remember how sharp this guy is about his football picks. Pre-season be damned, it’s now time to get serious and greasy and our boy A.J. let’s us know that it’s time to take the panties off and put on the jockstraps. Or something like that. Read A.J.’s pick, after the friggin’ jump.

9 p.m.

Oakland Raiders

at

New England Patriots (0-0)

Best Line: OAK +7.5, NE -7, 50 o/u

My name is A.J. Benza…and I’m a Raiderholic. At first it wasn’t too bad. I mean, it was manageable. I remember I’d watch the games with my father and I’d pretend he was George Blanda and I was Daryl Lamonica. Then, when I was a stupid teenager, I tried to become a lefty so that I could look as cool as Kenny Stabler. And I think Al Davis telling me…no commanding me…to ‘just win baby!’ made it impossible for me to turn down anything Oakland. But I still didn’t think I had a problem. I guess the infamous “Tuck” game was when I really hit rock bottom. It was a combination of Tom Brady definitely fumbling and the depressing weather and then - at the end - the sight of that twerp Adam Vinatieri splitting the uprights. It just felt like I was raped. And I swore right then and there I would never again place a bet on the Raiders.

But, now I’m back.

The questions surrounding this game are endless: Can Bill Belichick survive the defections of his offensive and defensive coordinators? Can the Raiders stop Corey Dillon? Will the Pats double-team Randy Moss? Is Tom Brady still steady? Is Kerry Collins still drinking? How’s your head? Mine’s about to explode.

Here’s the way I see it. First, don’t look past the point that the schedule makers have showcased this game three days before the NFL season officially begins. That wouldn’t have occurred if the Pats weren’t facing an Oakland team that football gurus believe has dramatically improved enough to possibly slow the record-breaking Patriots. So, the NFL powers-that-be are TELLING you that you’re gonna have a Helluva game on your hands tonight.
Beyond that, there is the burning debate whether the Raiders’ juicy, off-season pick-ups will put them in great position to beat a Patriots team that has LOST SIX guys who wore three Super Bowl rings on their hands. That’s a lot of talent.

I am fully aware of Belichick’s ability to heavily analyze a team - and he’s had months to do this - and come up with a game plan to defeat them. However without Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel babysitting, I’m curious to see the head coach go it alone. Because of that alone, I think the Raiders have a legitimate shot of beating the Pats OUTRIGHT tonight.
Not for nothing, but the acquisition of Moss to run under Collins’ bombs and the signing of ex-Jet LaMont Jordan to pound the ball is almost enough for me to make a comfortable wager right there. But when I throw in the fact that the Pats are without Ty Law, or either of their inside linebackers Teddy Bruschi or Ted Johnson, things look even smoother.

And another key factor will be how the Pats secondary can defend against wideouts Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry, both of whom missed most of the pre season with injuries. Them not suiting up much gave Collins and Moss a good amount of time to get the feel of each
other. (KEY POINT HERE: Collins is known as a guy with a cannon who often overthrew his receivers in his stints with other teams. BUT…there is no such thing as throwing a ball that Moss can’t chase down.)

The Raiders’ all-out, balls-out passing game is the difference for me. When it comes to the Patriots’ secondary, you get names such as Duane Starks (questionable), Ellis Hobbs (incapable), Asante Samuel (debateable), Randall Gay (unmentionable) and Tyrone Poole (Horrible). I know kids on Snoop Dogg’s team who aint scurred of those guys. The play here for this proud Raiderholic is to take Oakland. And don’t be surprised if they win the damn game outright.

BENZAPICK!: OAK +7.5

NFL Betting: The Search for 51

READ MORE: NFL Betting, New England Patriots, Oakland Raiders, Over/Under, Play Price

The feisty canucks from Covers are focusing on so many aspects of the game tonight they’ve been googly-eyed since mini-camp began in early August. Plus they have all of that catatonic CFL action to pay attention to as well(Geaux Argonauts!). But today, there’s only one game on their docket that all the books are looking at—and one number in tonight’s Oakland Raiders and New England Patriots game, which is the number 51. 51 is the “play price” for most bettors to pile on the under. As of yesterday, the number sat seductively at 50, waiting for a stiff breeze of Randy Moss’s buddha smoke to blow it over the top. The Covers crew says 51 is the number to watch. We shall oblige and get fat from their wisdom. As of early this morning, BetCris.com was one of the only sports books to have it above 50, with a 50 1/2 point total set for the game.

Total One Point Shy of Play Price [Covers]

Chopping Lines: Tom Brady’s Hands Smell Like Cheese

READ MORE: A.J. Benza, Chopping Lines, Green Bay Packers, NFL Betting, New England Patriots

8 p.m.

New England Patriots (1-1-0)

at

Green Bay Packers (1-1-0)

Best Line: NEW ENGLAND -3, GREEN BAY +3.5

The day Brett Favre began his NFL career with the Green Bay Packers, Peter Falk played TV’s “Columbo,” Lauren Tewes sailed on the “Loveboat” and Michael Jackson was still a black man. So much greatness has been achieved by Favre in the years since, but looking back one might say Brett’s daddy, Irv Favre, had the right idea checking out last year. He must have known the good times are just about over for his boy.

The off season saw Brett lose his two, big starting guards to free agency in Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera. His running back Ahman Green was busted for a domestic dispute for the FOURTH time. (Memo to Green: Leave the bitch!). Javon Walker skipped mini camp and is now firmly in bed with mousy, self-promoting agent Drew Rosenhaus. Oh yeah, and Al Harris was investigated for involvement in a sexual assault case in sunny Florida. And you thought the Eagles had a shitty pre-season.

Meanwhile, New England has lost little in the way of steadily moving the football downfield and nearly always scoring once in the red zone. And they should get there often with the Packers returning a defense almost identical to the one that ranked 25th last season. And, oh by the way, the Pack suck versus the number at home with an embarrassing 2-8 mark in their last 10 home games.Sorry, this very well could be the season where the halo above Brett Favre’s head slips down to a neuce around his neck. Take New England -3.

BENZAPICK!: NEW ENGLAND-3
(YTD 6-2)

NFL Futures: T.O.’s Mouth Moves Line

READ MORE: Indianapolis Colts, NFL Futures, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles sat atop Sportsbook.com’s favorite list for the Super Bowl at 6/1, same with the New England Patriots. Then disgruntled wide receiver Terrell Owens decided the best way to encourage contract negotiations with the Eagles was to lose his mind, take off his shirt, and begin doing sit-ups in his enormous driveway in front of a captivated media audience. Based on that outburst(and the Eagle’s supposed fractured psyche), the Birds are now 9/1 to win the Super Bowl. The Patriots are now 8/1 and—brace yourselves—the new odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl are Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts at 6/1. It is Oddjack’s distinct pleasure to congratulate the Colts for this honor and then remind them that even with all of the good tidings and adequate pre-season they still have no fucking chance at winning the Super Bowl.

Eagles Odds Worsen With Terrell Owens’ Distraction [PR News Wire]
NFL Futures Odds [Sportsbook]