Free Pick Rundown: Cheeseheads Make Everybody Feel Like Fonzie

READ MORE: Free Pick Rundown, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football Betting, NFL Betting

· SharpJuice thinks that the emotion will run high tonight because it’s Monday Night and it’s Brett Favre. When doesn’t emotion run high on Monday Night Football when Brett Favre is playing? [SharpJuice]
· Al Dawg from Sedge Court took a huge pull from the WD-40 container this morning and thinks that a cold weather game and no Vikings offense equals over 44 points. [SCJ]
· CigarBookie hates the MNF game tonight, and says the line (GB -6) is “right where it needs to be.” He hit Auburn -7 and Indy -5.5 this weekend with ease, so if the Pack wins by six tonight, y’all need to hop on board. [CigarBookie]
· The Sports Advisors give Green Bay the huge ATS advantage. [Fox Sports]

Paddy Power’s Finger Firmly Pressed to Pulse of NFL

READ MORE: Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football, NFL Betting, Paddy Power

As we saw last week, Paddy Power proves that unless it’s just showing the straight line on an NFL game, it has no idea what it’s talking about. Observe this week’s lovely “First Touchdown Scorer” prop bet for the Minnesota Vikings. We’re sure Keenan Howry, deactivated from the team almost a month ago, is pleased to know he’s an 18/1 favorite to score first, ahead of tight end Jermaine Wiggins and personal friend of Paddy Power “Jimmy” Kleinsasser.

First Touchdown Scorer [PaddyPower]
Paddy Power: Handicapping MNF Like the Drunks They Are [Oddjack]

NFL Betting: Who’s Horny and Loves the Color Purple?

READ MORE: Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football, NFL Betting

If that’s you, eager bettor, well Covers has listed all the assurances you need that your foolish bet is a profitable one. Behold the five reason why the Minnesota Vikings and their toothless offense will cover their frozen asses at Lambeau tonight:

5. Dovonte Edwards eager to face Favre

As an undrafted rookie cornerback, Dovonte Edwards would figure to be at a huge disadvantage against a veteran gunslinger like Brett Favre. However, Edwards wants nothing more than the future Hall of Famer to chuck the pigskin in his direction Monday night.

“I want a chance to make a name for myself on ‘Monday Night Football,’” Edwards told the Twin Cities Pioneer Press. “As a corner, you got to want the quarterback to throw your way, otherwise it`s like you`re not even out there.”

Think that’s naïve rookie enthusiasm? Think again. Edwards was able to make the Vikings roster after playing the cornerback position for just two years in college. He began his Division I career as a wideout, and his ability to learn the position so quickly has earned him the respect of his position mates.

“That really is impressive,” said cornerback Antoine Winfield. “That`s a big change, going from receiver to corner in two years.”

Yep. Dovonte Edwards is pumped-up. Who doesn’t feel better? Proceed to the rest of the logic-defying reaches after the jump.

4. No more Lambeau mystique

The Packers used to be considered a lock at Lambeau Field, but the mystique surrounding the frozen tundra seems to have melted away.

The Pack have suffered some of their most embarrassing losses at Lambeau this season including a 17-3 loss to Detroit to open the campaign, a 26-24 loss to the brutal Cleveland Browns in Week 2 and a 20-10 drubbing by Pittsburgh two weeks ago. Green Bay is 1-3 at home this season with two paydays in those games.

The Vikings are 1-3 as an away team this season, but are hot off an impressive 24-21 victory at Giants stadium last week as 9-point underdogs.

3. Brad Johnson

With all due respect to Daunte Culpepper, the Vikings offense has been much more stable with backup Brad Johnson under center.

Whereas Culpepper ended his season with six touchdowns to 12 interceptions, Johnson has tossed three majors in his first two starts without a single pick. The Vikings no longer pose a deep threat with the 14-year vet at quarterback, but what he lacks in arm makes up in football smarts.

The Vikings credit last week’s game-winning drive to Johnson’s play calling, and believe his leadership will be a huge asset during the rest of campaign.

“Brad stayed calm,” receiver Nate Burleson told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. “He got in the huddle and ad-libbed a little bit. He went to each receiver and told us what route he wanted us to run. He was able to control it, to orchestrate what we did. We made the plays because he put us in position to.”

2. Faulty holder foiling Green Bay

If Monday’s night Vikings-Packers contest comes down a field goal (four of the last five meeting have), the Packers are at a huge disadvantage.

Holder B.J. Sander’s bumbling has cost kicker Ryan Longwell four field-goal tries and an extra-point attempt this season and the Pack’s moneyline backers two paydays. Sander dropped the snap on what would have been a chip-shot field goal against Detroit in Week 1, bobbled the snaps on a missed extra-point and field-goal attempt in the Week 3 tilt with Tampa Bay and mishandled the pigskin on two missed field goals the Week 7 defeat to Minnesota.

The Packers lost to the Buccaneers by just a single point and dropped a three-point decision to Minnesota.

“I think there has to be a chemistry there [and] a trust factor that develops [between the holder and kicker],” special teams coach John Bonamego told the Green Bay Press Gazette. “Knowing the ball is going to get down and get down a certain way and for Ryan and B.J., that’s still an ongoing process.”

Unfortunately for Bonamego, he has little choice but to stay with Sander. Backup holder Aaron Rodgers has proven even more unreliable than Sanders in practice.

1. Monday a must win for Minnesota

There’s still more than a month left in the regular season, but it’s already playoff time as far as the Vikings are concerned.

At 4-5, Monday night`s contest is a critical juncture for Minnesota’s playoff hopes. A loss would pretty much put the NFC North-leading Chicago Bears out of reach while a win would keep the postseason drive alive for another week.

“This is big. It gives us a chance to get to .500,” Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield said. “If we lose this one, we`re definitely going to be in trouble. We`re fighting to catch Chicago. We can`t afford to lose, especially in our division.”

The pressure has been intense for Minnesota to win these past four weeks and the team’s responded by winning three of those contests including two in a row since Culpepper was lost to injury. Expect the same from the Vikings when they face Green Bay on the Monday night stage.

NFL Betting: Packer Pickers Rejoice

READ MORE: Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football, NFL Betting

Once again, Covers does its weekly Monday point-counterpoint breakdown of tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup. Here are the handciapping gurus insights on why Brett Favre and the Gado-happy Packers will smoke the Vikings:

5. Offense settling down

Packer fans needn’t hold their breath anymore when Brett Favre slings the ball downfield.

Over the last two games, Green Bay’s offense has gone back to the basics as Favre is picking his spots instead of being picked off. After throwing 13 interceptions in the first seven games of the season, Favre has thrown just one interception in each of his last two starts. Green Bay went 1-1.

“For the most part, [I`ve played] well enough to win, but in some of these games, I don`t think I needed to take as many chances as I did,” Favre said Wednesday.

Read the rest of the genius-ness, after the jump.

4. Third-down

It’s an overlooked stat but when a team converts on third down, the impact stretches beyond the moving of the chains.

The extra yard or two gained on the next possession could be the difference between a field goal and a punt or may keep a tired defense on the field for an extra few minutes. So where’s this going? Green Bay ranks second in the NFL in third down tries, converting 45.3 percent.

The Vikings meanwhile, rank dead last in stopping third down attempts (45 percent).

3. No Daunte’s inferno

Over the last couple years, Vikings quarterback Daunte Culpepper has flourished at Lambeau Field, silencing any claims that the dome QB couldn’t perform on frozen tundra.

Culpepper, who will have season-ending knee surgery next week, has thrown 11 touchdowns in his last three trips to Green Bay without any interceptions. The result helped Minnesota walk out of Green Bay with a win and a pocket full of cash three straight times.

In his last start in Green Bay, Culpepper threw four touchdowns on 19-of-29 passing to help his Vikings bounce back from a 17-0 halftime deficit to win the NFC Wild Card game 31-17.

2. Good Gado

Four touchdowns later and Samkon Gado’s first start as an NFL running back was a success.

Gado, who is listed as fifth on the depth chart, rushed for three touchdowns while catching for another against Atlanta last week.

He did fumble twice en route to 103 yards on the ground, but his emergence should give the Packers confidence in the backfield. That should also begin to open up some gaps downfield for the league’s fifth-ranked air attack.

1. Brad Johnson

Before you hop on the 37-year old Brad Johnson train, think back to his performance in Minnesota’s win over New York last week.

Johnson connected on just 56 of his passes and threw for only 144 yards as Minnesota finished with its worst yardage output of the year. Despite this, the Vikings still pulled off a 24-21 upset over the heavily favored Giants with special teams pitching in all three majors.

NFL Betting: No Boat Orgy Can Save Them Now

READ MORE: Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football, NFL Betting

Not surprisingly, bettors are taking out second and third mortgages to throw money at the Green Bay Packers for tonight’s Monday night matchup between the Cabezas de Queso and the Vikings de Humpo in a stultifying NFC North battle. The Vikes opened as 3 1/2 point dogs, but have since been bounced up to 5 1/2 and 6 at some sportsbooks thanks to the massive amount of change being chucked at Green Bay. The reason? Well, it’s obvious. Minnesota suffers from a startling lack of offense and a mongoloid coach. The Vikings can’t rely on Darren Sharper every week and with the emergence of the Nigerian Nobody, Green Bay running back Samkon Gado, it’s pretty easy to see why people are banking on the Vikings lack of fire-power to keep the score within a touchdown.

No Offense: Bettors Fading Minnesota [Covers]

Free Pick Whiplash

READ MORE: NCAA Football Betting, NFL Betting

Featuring Whiplash, the Dog Riding Monkey

· Sedge Court’s Robnosticator seems to really like whoever it is that’s playing Army this weekend. If we go to lay our money down and it turns out to be “The Iraqis,” we’re not following him into that folly. [SedgeCourtJournal]
· “The Bengals need to show they belong plain and simple.” So says TMoney at Sharp Juice. He likes them +6, we like them a lot less than that. He also likes Boise State giving an absurd 32 points to Idaho, as the game features “#13 offense vs #112 defense.” Plus, no one’s going to argue the merits of the potato with either team. [SharpJuice]
· ESPN’s Bill Simmons likes the Bucs to cover versus the Falcons, offering the following assessment of the ATL D, “I don’t think they do anything else that well. Plus, they have a tough schedule looming. In my book, the Samkon Gado game wasn’t an aberration — they’re headed in the wrong direction.” We’re on board the Buc Bandwagon this week. [ESPN]
· Gambling 911’s Lisa Perry loves the Raiders +6 against the Skins. She also keeps talking about these “Sagarin” ratings like there’s some sort of statistical model you can use to pick these games or something. That’s just what the sportsbooks want you to think. [Gambling911]
· We don’t like the Bill Snyder send-off line at K-State, but the Barry Alvarez goodbye makes sense to Taylor at Six2Cover. [Six2Cover]
· We’re still waiting on Turn Up The Juice and AJ’s nemesis at American Gambling News to sack up and pick already. Keep an eye on the Blogging Bookie we told you about earlier this week too. He’s been on fire lately.

Eight Ways To Sunday - NFL Picks To Agonize Over

READ MORE: NFL Betting

· Miami (+2) at Cleveland - Will it be Sage Rosenfels or Gus Frerotte under center for Miami? Does it matter? In what’s probably a bad weather game, you’ve got Ricky and Ronnie and a decent defense facing Trent Dilfer. Go Dolphins - PICK! MIAMI +2

· New Orleans (+9) at New England - Confusing line here. Are they trying to tell us New Orleans has packed it in for the year? The Pats have way too many problems to be giving nine away to anyone, and those defensive injuries limit Belicheck’s creativity. Don’t think nine’s going to hold - PICK! SAINTS +9

· Philadelphia (+7) at NY Giants - Seven is way too many for Philly in this spot. They may be starting Mike McMahon, but they still have a defense, right? They may not win, but they should cover - PICK! EAGLES +7

· Tampa Bay (+6) at Atlanta - Another line that seems too high, especially with Vick’s history against the Bucs. Chris Simms should probably regress some from last week, but the Bucs should neuter the Falcons’ passing game. - PICK! TAMPA BAY +6

· Carolina (-3) at Chicago - Who’s the overrated team here? Carolina’s opponents this year have a combined record with a win percentage under 40%, and Chicago gets to beat up on the NFC North. Either way, it’s obvious who the more talented team is, on both sides of the ball. - PICK! CAROLINA -3

· Seattle (-12) at San Francisco - Shaun Alexander’s projected line: 211 yards rushing, 40 yards receiving, four TDs. Kevan Barlow should see about 20% of that production. - PICK! SEATTLE -12

· Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Baltimore - Tommy Maddox gets the start, and no one can tell if this is an upgrade or downgrade over Charlie Batch. Pittsburgh is going to have to go to the run, but our gut feeling tells us Baltimore will be keyed up for this one. - PICK! BALTIMORE -3.5

· Indianapolis (-5) at Cincinnati - Cincy gets exposed this week, and those old-ass bastards from the 72 Dolphins start freaking out that their record is in jeopardy. Indy will drop one or two, it just won’t be this week. - PICK! INDIANAPOLIS -5

· OUTRIGHT DOG PLAYS We normally throw a series of round-robin bets against the wall on Sundays, batching our favorite dogs together in two team parlays. We like Baltimore, Arizona, Tampa, and Miami this week. Hit one of these two-team parlays, and you’ll pay the bets off, plus some.

NFL Betting: McNabb’s Groin Worth 3 1/2 Points

READ MORE: Donovan McNabb's Groin, NFL Betting, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles

Nobody can really imagine the Eagles winning this weekend when the travel to the Meadowlands. They’re facing a Giants team that’s coming off a ridiculous loss to Darren Sharper and the Minnesota Vikings special teams unit. They are mourning the loss of another dead owner. Plus, not to mention, for most of the year the Giants have shown that they might very well be the class of the NFC East. Now, factor in a Donovan McNabb groin yank and you get a three point swing for the Giants this weekend. The line opened at 3.5/4 for some books, but has now jumped to 7.5/8.5 on some thanks to the annnouncment that third-string idiot Mike McMahon will start instead of McNabb. Honestly, the line may move a bit more before Sunday as bettors are sure to throw heavy dollars at Giants. Not a bad play, considering what happened to the Redskins when they entered the Meadowlands after Wellington Mara died. Mike McMahon may actually wish he was back with the Detroit Lions after this weekend.

Injured McNabb Out; McMahon To Start [Covers]

Chopping Lines: Bring Back The Bounty Bowl

READ MORE: Chopping Lines, Dallas Cowboys, Monday Night Football, NFL Betting, Philadelphia Eagles

9 p.m.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)

Best Line: PHI -2.5, DAL +3

Some of the greatest games in Philadelphia Eagles history have been against Dallas. Dating back to the 1980 NFC Championship Game, it’s been one story line after another. Buddy Ryan’s infamous Thanksgiving game where he (allegedly) offered a reward for the person who injured Cowboys’ kicker Luis Zendejas. Barry Switzer’s 4th-and-1 brain fart. The Pickle Juice game which officially kicked off the Andy Reid era. Something always happens when these games mean something. And now, with the Eagles flailing and searching for something to resuscitate their season, it once again has them up against the Cowboys. It’s silly to think that the Eagles are anywhere close to the team they’ve been the last few years. But the thing they do have going for it is history and going up against Dallas to save their season once again. Huge homefield advantage for the Birds tonight. Count the anti-T.O. signs, give away the points and watch the magic happen.

PICK!: PHI -2.5

NFL Betting: If You Don’t Think The Cowboys Suck

READ MORE: Dallas Cowboys, Monday Night Football, NFL Betting, Philadelphia Eagles

And, of course, there is always another side. Say you enjoy things like watching your sister shower, eating Doritos with your bare feet, or just shooting fireworks in your shed, well, you’re probably betting on the Cowboys tonight. If you’re Chad Hutchinson, you’re probably doing all three and making a ridiculous face. Covers has the list of things that should make you feel better about this startling lapse of judgment.

5: No T.O. Let’s get this out of the way quick because we’ve all heard just about enough about you know who.

All the bad blood aside, the Eagles are not better off without Owens. He leads them in touchdowns (6), constituted their only true deep threat, and has nearly twice as many yards as their second-leading receiver - running back Brian Westbrook.

Philly posted a season-worst 145 passing yards against the Boys in Week 5 and Owens accounted for more than a third (50 yards) of that. Think the air attack will fair any better without him this week?

For the rest, go jump. Please.

4: Julius Jones back in action

The Cowboys No.1 running back has been out ever since he sprained an ankle in that Week 5 tilt with Philly.

Jones notched 72 yards on 16 carries in that game and with backup Marion Barber racking up 222 yards on 49 carries in Dallas’ past two games, he’ll have a little extra incentive to perform this week.

“I think [Jones] wants to play. I think Barber wants to play. But there`s only one ball, and that`s good,” said coach Bill Parcells.

Until one rusher proves himself better than the other, Parcells says he’ll use those two backs to do most of the rushing. Third stringer Tyson Thompson, who’s looked solid in limited time, will also get a few carries. That means Philly’s No. 19 run defense has three very motivated rushers to worry about.

“We have a good situation here, with three [backs] I can put into the game,” says Parcells. “They can all carry the ball and I`m going to use [them] the best way I can.”

3: Dallas ready for a fired up Philly team

Worried that Dallas might come out a little soft after the 33-10 beatdown it laid on the Birds last month?

Don`t count on it. The Cowboys are well aware of how desperate the Eagles are for a win, and how badly they want to prove they can win without Owens.

“That`s what scares me,” said tight end Dan Campbell. “They`re probably going to pull closer together. They`re going to prove we can do this with who we have on the team right now. I`m looking for them to play the best they`ve played all year. We just got to be ready to go. We`re going into a hornet`s nest.”

“I expect to get a good effort from them. They`ve always given a good effort,” added Parcells. “It`s Monday night. They`re at home. Why wouldn`t you expect that?”

2: Eagles O-line soft in the middle

Lost in the wake of the Owens saga is that the Eagles lost Hank Fraley for the season this week. The starting center had season-ending rotator-cuff surgery on his left shoulder Wednesday, and will be replaced by backup Jamaal Jackson.

Centers don’t get a whole lot of media attention, but they can be vital to team’s success or the direct cause of its failures. One errant snap can easily cost a team the game, and with Jackson making his first ever NFL appearance in a tilt that could make or break the Eagles’ season, nerves could easily become a problem for him.

He also figures to be ill equipped to call the blocking schemes against Dallas` dangerous pass rush, which just so happens to top this list.

1: Dallas’ pass rush

Dallas` blitzes made creamed corn out of Donovan McNabb when these teams last met. The Eagles quarterback was sacked four times and held to a 131 yards on 13-of-26 passing.

Hampered by rib and ankle ailments, McNabb wasn’t able to evade defenders the way he has in past seasons. Those injuries don’t seem to have improved much over the last five weeks and the Cowboys pass rushers are just hitting their stride. They’ve sacked four of the last five quarterbacks they’ve faced at least three times.

With only a greenhorn center standing between him and Dallas’ defenders, McNabb could be in for a long night.

Five Reasons Why Dallas Will Cover [Covers]

NFL Betting: Eagles Will Not Release The East

READ MORE: Dallas Cowboys, Monday Night Football, NFL Betting, Philadelphia Eagles

So, you’re thinking that this whole Terrell Owens thing could actually benefit the Eagles tonight against the Cowboys? That those three points they’re giving won’t matter? That Brian Westbrook will bust out for 200 yards and the defense will stand tough? Well, here’s the list for the Iggles backers brought to you by Covers.

5: Problem isn’t the offense The Eagles bread and butter over the last several seasons has been their defense.

Unfortunately they have not been the same this season, highlighted by the 564 yards and 49 points the Denver Broncos put up on them two weeks ago.

“We`ve made too many mistakes, bottom line,” said cornerback Sheldon Brown. “We`ve got to minimize mistakes. Every man has to do his job on a consistent basis.”

But this is a veteran group that is littered with several All-Pros and with Jim Johnson and Andy Reid on the case, Philadelphia should work out their problems.

Rest of the positive thinking, after the jump.

4: The Cowboys aren’t that good

The Eagles did get thumped by the Cowboys last time out - 129 yards total offense and six first downs is a complete embarrassment.

“We tried everything, and they were one step ahead of what we did,” said linebacker Jeremiah Trotter, after the loss.

But come on, that is by far the best these Dallas Cowboys will play this year.

The 129 yards is less than one-third of what the Eagles have been averaging this season and the 456 yards they gave up is 100 yards more than they’ve been giving up.

Dallas isn`t that good. Look at the games they have played. Aside from their 34-13 win over the hapless Arizona Cardinals they haven’t impressed, losing to Washington, Oakland and Seattle, while barely getting by the 49ers and Giants.

3: Eagles still have firepower

Say what you want, but the Eagles still have some offensive weaponry.

Brian Westbrook, for one, may be the best two-option back this side of LaDainian Tomlinson and L.J. Smith should soon be mentioned with Gates and Gonzalez as one of the top tight ends in the league.

Meanwhile their two young receivers (Reggie Brown and Greg Lewis) definitely have the talent to get the job done and are feeling no pressure coming into the game.

“We just have to try now to pull everything together,” said Brown. “I hope I can make some big plays because that`s what they brought me here for.”

Add the veteran Lewis to the mix and you have five decent offensive threats for the Eagles. That means plenty of options to spread the ball around and if anyone can do that it’s McNabb.

2: No T.O. means no distraction

The Philadelphia Eagles locker room was probably more of a family picnic this week – happy, good-natured and cheerful - than the back stabbing, volatile media circus that accompanied Terrell Owens wherever he went this season.

“It was a distraction so I think it brings everybody closer together,” said tight end L.J. Smith of the Owens saga.

The fewer distractions also meant the Eagles had the opportunity to better prepare for tonight’s showdown with the Cowboys.

“I’d say they were very business-like,” said coach Andy Reid describing practice this week. “They came out and practiced hard and aggressive.”

More unity, better preparation - what else do you need to win a football game?

1: Donovan McNabb

The real Donovan McNabb will return.

Whether it`s the assorted injuries healing or the Owens saga quieting down, the Eagles pivot appears to have found the bounce in his step he has been missing for most of the season.

“I`ve been with Donovan for a full week of practice but it seems like I`ve never left,” said recently re-signed tight end Chad Lewis. “He`s having fun and there`s no difference to me. I can tell you this week, I see the exact same person that I`ve always known.”

McNabb was already showing signs of coming around last week against the Redskins. He scampered around the pocket, put together a couple of rushes and aside from the interception by Ryan Clark, he played well. He still threw for 304 yards and one touchdown against a tough Redskins defense.

Why The Eagles Will Cover [Covers]

Paddy Power: Handicapping MNF Like The Drunks They Are

READ MORE: Dallas Cowboys, Monday Night Football, NFL Betting, Paddy Power, Philadelphia Eagles

We can knock Irish bookmakers Paddy Power about a lot of things—their propensity for prop bets about seemingly anything on the planet, being the first—and here’s another one. When trolling their prop bets for tonight’s NFL game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys we noticed some interesting names listed on their clumsy “First Touchdown Scorer” line:

That highlighted name is supposed to be journeyman wide receiver Darnerian McCants, who is currently listed as the fifth wide receiver on the Eagle’s depth chart. We’re assuming that the Irish guys just figure that without Terrell Owens, any old wide receiver has 14/1 odds at scoring first in tonight’s game. Even ones who won’t even play. We’re also happy to see that fullback Jon Ritchie has 18/1 odds of scoring, given that, well, he’s been cut from the team. And Reno Mahe’s chances of recovering a fumble on punt return duties are apparently as strong as third-down back Lamar Gordon at 33/1. Imagining a few reckless Irish punters screaming at the television tonight to “Throw the ball to Ritchie!” just makes our day so much more fun.

First Touchdown Scorer [PaddyPower]