Chopping Lines: Eagle-Eyed Cherry Picking
READ MORE: A.J. Benza, Chopping Lines, NFL Pre-Season Betting, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles
8 p.m.
NY Jets (2-1)
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Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)
Best Line: PHL -2.5, NYJ +3
Once there was a day when NY Jets fans looked upon QB Chad Pennington as the Great White Hope. Now he looks like another cracker in my soup. “Sad” Pennington’s performance against his crossdown rival NY Giants last week was haarible. One of these days, during one of these games, somebody on the team has to own to the fact that the best pieces to “Sad’s” throwing arm might have left on that operating table so many months ago. But it ain’t all his fault. His offensive line has given up 11 sacks this pre-season, and if that keeps up “Sad” could eat the dirt in access of 30 times this regular season. In addition, the almighty Curtis Martin is a year older and more banged up. So the Jets’ offense is going to have to get very creative when it’s time to step up and beat the NFL’s elite teams.But asking them to beat the powerful Philadelphia Eagles A.) On their home turf; and B.) With Terrell Owens doing his thing as only he can do it; might be asking them to do the impossible.If the Eagles have already cut through the controversey of two weeks ago and re-mixed their tainted chemistry in so short a time, expect them to cut through the Jets defense and remind us of their NFL elite status in the span of tonight’s four quarters.
BENZAPICK!: PHL -2 1/2
YTD 7-3
Chopping Lines: Jag the Dog
READ MORE: A.J. Benza, Chopping Lines, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL Pre-Season Betting
8 p.m.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)
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Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
Best Line: JAC +5, DALLAS -3.5.
The encouraging news is that the Jacksonville Jaguars have defeated the Indianapolis Colts in two of their last three meetings, including a 2004 victory at the RCA Dome. The real shitty news is that the Jaguars also dropped two games to the hapless Texans in that same span. So the question looms: Are these guys Jaguars or Jag-offs? I say they’re Jaguars, dammit. And the Dallas Cowboys are about to learn that the hard way.
Coach Jack Del Rio cited inconsistency as the young team’s biggest headache, and his team has good things to help eliminate that as we enter the regular season and they know they have to play hard every week - even when the opposition doesn’t have a horse-shoe on its helmets. The most important change has been seeing Byron Leftwich emerge as a star as the Jags have been emphasizing more vertical passing. After four games the Jags sit atop the AFC South standings and have allowed the fewest points with 54. There is simply no way the Dallas Cowboys’ feeble offense - led by the frightened feet of Drew Bledsoe - will be able to muster enough points to beat the Jags. As far as I’m concerned, all the Jags’ offensive line need do is keep the Cowboys’ lone star in DE DeMarcus Wade off Leftwich’s ass. If they can do that, Lord Byron oughta be able to pick apart the secondary for more than enough points. TAKE the 5 points and watch that mean bastard Bill Parcells blow a gasket.
BENZAPICK!: JAGS + 5
(YTD 7-3)
NFL Preseason Betting: Reason #3, 454 to Stay Away
READ MORE: Covers, NFL Pre-Season Betting, Oddsmaker
Remember last week when we thought everybody was smart about betting the New Orleans Saints when coach Jim Haslett revealed that he would play his starters deep into the third quarter? Yeah. Well, the sportsbooks get screwed by this information. And they’re so suscepitble in pre-season. In Covers’ weekly “Ask the Oddsmaker” column, it is revealed that pre-season football lines are the most subjective betting lines around:
It’s the nature of the beast that the books want to put up the numbers ASAP, so in most cases we have little or no idea about any coach’s game plan. But does it really matter? The preseason games are won or lost in the second half when the starters are snoozing on the sidelines.
Chopping Lines: Run With the Lions Released From Their Cages
READ MORE: Chopping Lines, Detroit Lions, NFL Pre-Season Betting, New York Jets
7 p.m.
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Best Line: Detroit +3,
NYJ -2.5, o/u 37
It’s officially opening weekend of preseason NFL football, and Jets fans have a lot to be excited about. Their top draft pick this year was a kicker, they return a wide receiver that left them for another team a couple years ago, their golden boy QB has a bum shoulder, and Jeremy Shockey kicked their ass in a recent scrimmage skirmish. Okay, so maybe they don’t have a lot to look forward to.
Friday night brings a young and hungry Lions squad to Giants Stadium, eager to put (roughly) eighty-two years of futility behind them. Despite three lackluster years at the helm, we believe the Joey Harrington era starts now. This team is underrated in its potential, having been decimated by injuries in the recent past. For once, all the skill position talent is healthy, which removes both the limitations and the excuses Harrington has faced in his tenure behind center.
Preseason, though, is not about the starters - it’s about the backups. Jeff Garcia steps in after the first quarter, and will probably get a little time with the first team receivers. At bare minimum, he’ll have the very capable Shawn Bryson behind him, and the Kevin Johnson/Mike Williams tandem on the outside. This alone gives us reason to eye the Lions as a good pick, but toss in the Jets’ second string (Bollinger/Blaylock/Cotchery/Chrebet), and we’re thinking a shootout is going to be in order. Since it is the largely unpredictable preseason, you can take this logic straight to your bookie or forget we ever had this conversation. Either way, we’re just tuning up for week one our own damn selves. Game on.
PICK!: Detroit +3, OVER
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Chopping Lines: Staying Classy in San Diego
READ MORE: Green Bay Packers, NFL Pre-Season Betting, San Diego Chargers
8 p.m.
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Best Line: Chargers -2.5, o/u 37.5
What can we say about this Brett Favre that hasn’t already been said? The man’s tough. He plays through freezing cold. He plays through family tragedies. Yet, he’s also close to 47-years old. Tonight Favre will see only about a quarter of the action to make way for shell-shocked rookie Aaron Rodgers. Plus, Javon Walker has a bum hamstring, Ahman Green’s sweat problem will be in full bloom thanks to the humidity, and Najeh Davenport will be daydreaming about the next dorm room he can poop all over. We don’t expect much effort from the Pack this evening.
The Chargers, on the other hand, have a two quarterbacks in Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers who actually have something play for. Each is carrying a chip the size of Uzbekistan on their shoulders and they’ve got something to prove, dammit. Brees wants to show last year’s break out season wasn’t a fluke; Rivers wants people to stop calling him the-guy-they-traded-for-Eli Manning. And with last year’s laughable collapse against the New York Jets still fresh, the Chargers seem poised to want to make a statement more declarative than “It’s not our fault we’re coached by Marty Shottenheimer.”
PICK!: Chargers -2.5
Chopping Lines: Monday Night With Saban and Company
READ MORE: Chicago Bears, Chopping Lines, Miami Dolphins, NFL Pre-Season Betting
8 p.m.
Chicago Bears (-3)
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Miami Dolphins
Best Line: Miami +3
For the Miami Dolphins the Nick Saban era begins tonight in the annual AFC-NFC Hall of Fame Game on Monday night (ABC, 8 p.m. ET) in Canton, Ohio. The defensive-minded rookie NFL head coach from LSU has something to prove to his players and fans. Another person with something to prove is the Dolphins’ RB Ricky Williams and Bears QB Rex Grossman. Williams left football last year and Grossman hasn’t seen action since week 3 when a knee injury knocked him out for the season. He is expected to run the Bears’ offence for 15-20 plays. Does this mean we’ll catch a glimpse of 14 year veteran from Illinois Jeff George tonight? Not really. Head Coach Lovie Smith will give us a dose of stud rookie QB Boilermaker Kyle Orton. How Orton plays tonight could very well be the difference in a meaningless preseason win or a loss.
The Dolphins and Bears are coming off of disappointing seasons last year and are not without questions with their top draft picks. Both team’s running backs Ronnie Brown in Miami and Cedric Benson in Chicago are holdouts; which gives them not a lot of preparation time when they do return with one month until the regular season kicks off. For the Dolphins, a pre-season battle between QB’s A.J. Feeley and Gus Frerotte will determine the club’s starting QB. Another focus for Nick Saban will be the rookie LB out of Florida Channing Crowder. He was dominant as a Gator and left early for the NFL draft this year. A win in this year’s Hall of Fame game would be fitting after this weekend’s induction of Miami QB Dan Marino. We see Saban making an immediate impact in his first NFL pre-season game.
PICK! MIAMI DOLPHINS +3
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