Chopping Lines: When Accepting Heartbreak Is Better Than Refusing It
READ MORE: Baseball Betting, Chopping Lines, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies
7:05 p.m.
New York Mets (80-77)
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Philadelphia Phillies (84-72)
Best Line: NYM +162, PHILS -168
Alright, here comes our homerism of the day. This is also a valuable way to exorcise our our pent-up frustrations with this lifeless, hollowed-out, fraud of a team that keeps pathetically un-adjusted fans like us tuned-in the last two weeks of the season with the fruitless hopes of finally seeing a post-season in autumn. Alas, today is the day that the Phillies will, hopefully, put us all out our misery, lose to the god-for-saken New York Mets and JUST. GO. AWAY. Tonight’s game will feature two of the biggest head-cases in baseball as Steve Trachsel and his patented three-minute wind-up takes the mound for the Mets against loonier-than-a-rat-on-ecstasy Vicente Padilla. The pitching match-ups are irrelevant, however. What is relevant is the fact that these are the Philadelphia Phillies—destined to fail, shrug their shoulders, and slouch their way into the fall with a deafening sigh. Win big.
PICK!: METS +162
MLB Betting: Dog Day Afternoon
READ MORE: Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros, MLB Betting, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, Underdog Picks
Two early afternoon games that look like possible underdog winners are the Houston Astros getting +125 versus the Pittsburgh Pirates(12:35 p.m.)—and our betting crush Zach Duke—and the Philadelphia Phillies getting +135 at Atlanta(1:05 p.m.) this afternoon. Houston starting pitcher Brandon Backe is scrubbish at times(even though he pitched 6.2 shutout innings during his last start), but we’re still agog over the Astros’ playoff push and how their bats seem to come alive when they need it most. And how about the Fightin’ Phils? Just when you think they’ll get shoved out of the wild card race they come up with inexplicable victories. Today seems like it’ll be another one of those days as they go up against Tim Hudson—whom they poked three runs off of last time they faced him—and going up against Jon Lieber who waddles his way to late-season victories consistently.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves [Covers]
Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates [Covers]
Chopping Lines: It’s a Jon Lieber Party and Everyone’s Invited
READ MORE: A.J. Benza, Chopping Lines, Houston Astros, MLB Betting, Philadelphia Phillies
7:05 p.m.
Houston Astros (73-64, R. Oswalt)
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Philadelphia Phillies (73-65, J. Lieber)
Here we are with, what?, 25 games left to the season and Houston righty Roy Oswalt is trying on a new, shorter delivery that he hopes will help to better deceive hitters. Yeah, O.K. He’d be better off wearing an Andy Pettitte mask and borrowing Roger Clemens’ jersey. He ain’t fooling anyone, especially this late in the year. The secret on Oswalt became public in his last outing against the Reds when he pooped out and couldn’t start the 6th frame after tossing 100 pithches. And the secret everyone in Houston doesnt want you to know is this: Oswalt’s arm is, for the most part, dead. His “new” delivery is supposed to get him stronger and keep the other team guessing. With Philadelphia running out a very dependable-of-late Jon Lieber tonight - who’s won 4 of his last 6 - it’s time for the Phillies to snap their 3-game skid.
BENZAPICK!: PHL EVEN
Chopping Lines: Bouncing On Jon Lieber’s Stubby Legs
READ MORE: Chopping Lines, MLB Betting, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies
1:10 p.m.
Philadelphia Phillies (71-62, J.Lieber)
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1:10 p.m.
NY Mets (69-63, T. Glavine)
There’s no good reason to like the Phillies in this game. Why are we picking them then? Because of last night’s game. Last night the Phillies came in reeling, with momentum thoroughly on the side of the Mets and Pedro on the mound. Mets go up early with a 2-0 lead thanks once again to Ramon Castro’s inexplicable heroic power surge. But Phillies’ pitcher Brett Myers controls the rest of the game and Pedro starts letting up homer after homer. Phils win; message sent. Today, the pitching match-ups may slightly favor the Mets with Tom Glavine starting, but we’re guessing Jon Lieber gets some run support today even though he’s dropped his last two starts. But Lieber apparently is a southern boy and does have Hurricane Katrina on his mind. This could help or hurt, but we’ll take sentiment plus momentum over Glavine anyday. We’re nice like that sometimes.
PICK!: PHI +110
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Chopping Lines: Reap What You Seo
READ MORE: A.J. Benza, Chopping Lines, MLB Betting, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies
7:10 p.m.
Philadelphia Phillies (70-61, R. Tejeda)
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New York Mets (68-62, J. Seo)
The Mets, those sneaky bastards bordering New York’s other filthy river, are suddenly very alive and very exciting and - you know what? - very solid. Forget for a minute that they have the suddenly scary Jae Seo (6-1, 1.30) on the mound at home tonight. That ought to be enough for them to nip the Phillie’s rookie Robinson Tejeda. But commit to this: The most exciting baseball duo in New York this season may not be in pinstripes, but instead could very well be the Mets’ David Wright and Jose Reyes. With those two fucking with Tejeda’s head all night, look for the Mets to get to the shakey rook early and have steady Seo nail things down from there. And don’t count out the loud Shea Stadium crowd. Jewish bankers from Kew Gardens are the loudest! Mets roll.
BENZAPICK!: NYM -129
(YTD 7-4)
Chopping(Run) Lines: The Two Faces of Vicente Padilla
READ MORE: Chopping Lines, MLB Betting, Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants
10:05 p.m.
Philadelphia Phillies (67-59, V. Padilla)
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San Francisco Giants (55-69, B. Tomko)
Best Line: PHILLIES -1 1/2 +115(Run Line), SAN FRAN +122
Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Vicente Padilla is a wacko. After a miserable, injury-plagued first half of the season where he almost lost his spot in the rotation, Padilla finally woke up after the All-Star break. Or checked out, rather. Padilla hasn’t spoken to anybody—the media, coaches, teammates—since then and in response he’s become the best Phillies pitcher and put them in an improbable wild card race. The Phils need tonight’s win against the lowly San Francisco Giants(doesn’t Felipe Alou beging to resemble actor Ossie Davis more and more each day?) to keep up in the National League East logjam and pull back into the wild card lead. Luckily for the Phillies, they will face Brett Tomko tonight who is absolute dogshit on the mound. We’ll give them the one and a half runs; we love our chances with crazy.
PICK!: PHILLIES -1 1/2 +115
Chopping Lines: There’s a Thunder Cloud in Philly and It’s Name is Not Cory Lidle
READ MORE: A.J. Benza, Chopping Lines, MLB Betting, Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals (63-57, R. Drese)
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Philadelphia Phillies
(64-56, C.Lidle)
Best Line: PHI -160, Washington +158
You want brotherly love? How about South Philly and South Jersey fans buying some 9,000 walk-up tickets at their last home game with their beloved Phillies suddenly winning 6 of 7 games and surprisingly atop the National League Wild Card race. Chalk it up to Bobby Abreu finally heating up after his (needless) 41-home run performance at the All Star Game slightly put a small tear in his off-his-ass muscle. There’s no doubt Philly can smell the aroma of old backs breaking down out at the Houston Astro Ranch and are looking to make this a race to the end. The pitching mound gets heavier tonight with meaningless mounds Cory Lidle opposing the Nats’ Ryan Drese. Not much of an advantage to speak of in terms of pitching, but Drese did spit up 6 runs over 5 1/3 in his last start. The price is very high on Philly, so go lightly or don’t go at all.
BENZAPICK!: Phi -160
(YTD 4-1)
Chopping Lines: It’s Brett Myers Day in Colorado
READ MORE: Chopping Lines, Colorado Rockies, MLB Betting, Philadelphia Phillies
5:05 pm
Philadelphia Phillies (53-50, B. Myers) at Colorado Rockies (36-65, J. Acevedo)
Best Line: Phillies -160
The Phillies managed to overcome a three game sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros and win last night at Coors Field. The first of a four game series, the Phillies took the lead in the top of the ninth winning 8-5. The Phillies hope that they can continue to take advantage of the absence of Colorado Rockies slugger 1B Todd Helton and finally provide runs behind Brett Myers.
Brett Myers (8-5, 3.24) has been consistent for the Phillies this year but has been a victim of poor run support. Over his last five games, Myers is 3-1 with a 3.45 ERA, but his away record stands at 2-4 in nine starts. Myers has been a cash burner away from home. His last five games Myers lost the last three games despite his 2.54 ERA. Today, the thin air should help the trend of ailing run support for Myers on the road. Against the Rockies, Myers is 3-0 with a 3.32 ERA. The two times he’s pitched at Coors he is 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA.
Colorado Rockies right handed pitcher Jose Acevedo (2-0, 4.05 ERA) will replace Shawn Chacon today. Chacon got baseball’s equivalent of a new life yesterday; a trade to the Bronx for minor leaguers rhp Ramon Ramirez and rhp Eduardo Sierra. With Colorado, Chacon went 1-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 12 starts and one relief appearance so either the prospects are not good or Chacon is saving his stuff for the Stadium. Acevedo comes off short rest (he pitched in Monday’s win against the Mets) and despite pitching well enough to win his last two outings, it will be hard for him to keep the Phillies’ bats quiet. In four lifetime appearances against the Phillies his ERA ballooned to 7.16.
PICK! PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -160
Chopping Lines: One Heaping Pile of Clemens Heat
READ MORE: Chopping Lines, Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies
8:05 p.m.
Philadelphia Phillies (52-49, V. Padilla)
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Houston Astros (53-47, R.Clemens)
Best Line: Houston Astros -206
Fresh off Roy Oswalt’s a complete game 2-1 victory over the Phillys, the Houston Astros look to continue their Maid in the Shade dominance at home (32-14) and a chance to sweep the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. Bettors should take note that Philly has 1B Jim Thome on the 15-day DL with an injured elbow; the Astros have 1B Jeff Bagwell on the 15-day DL with a shoulder injury.
Roger Clemens (8-4, 1.40 ERA) and his league leading ERA will try to get the Astros within a game of first place in the Wild Card race on Wednesday night. Against the Nationals on Friday, the 42-year-old right handed pitcher made ten batters whiff as he did not allow any runners to get past scoring position. His ten strikeouts matched his season high and it was his 110 game with at least ten strikeouts in one game.
Philadelphia hopes Vicente Padilla (5-8, 5.52 ERA) will help cure the Phillies’ road woes. Before his last outing against the San Diego Padres, the righty went 13 straight innings without allowing an earned run. In his last start, Padilla notched three earned runs and four hits in six innings of work. Bettors should note that twice this season when he has lost three straight games he won his fourth start. But trends aside, Padilla does not pitch well against the Astros. He is 0-3 with a 5.31 ERA in eight career appearances (three starts) against the Astros. Today’s game falls into what system players call the streak rule; when a team wins three games in a row bet the streak. Clemens on the mound against road poor Philadelphia is tonight’s play.
PICK! Houston Astros -206
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