Christmas + Super Bowl + Horses = Breeders’ Cup

READ MORE: 2005 Breeders Cup, Horse Racing, Rock Hard Ten

We’re just over one week out from horse racing’s Super Bowl, Breeders Cup day. Yesterday, they released the early entries, which encourages guys like us to start burning a hole in our wallets while dreaming of Pick Six glory. The early oddsline for these races is set by Mike Watchmaker from The Daily Racing Form, from content you normally have to pay for. You’re lucky we did. After the jump, we’ll tell you who the early favorites are, and give you a peek at what you’ll be looking at next Saturday at the windows…

EARLY ODDS

Juvenile Fillies - 1 and 1/16 miles
· Adieu - 3/1
· Folklore - 3/1
· Original Spin - 6/1
· Wild Fit
Our Spin: Folklore won the Grade I Matron at Belmont by fourteen lengths a little over a month ago in what was an absolutely stunning performance. Her workouts have been stellar as well, and the only knock on her is going to be that she hasn’t stretched out the extra furlong-and-a-half this race will run. Adieu has shown she can do it in the mud, at a mile, and has beaten Folklore twice. We’re not ready to call any of these races right now, but Folklore is going to be good value here. We’re over a week out and we’re already ready to put $20 to win on a two-year-old filly? We’re sick.

Juvenile - 1 and 1/16 miles
· First Samurai - 8/5
· Henny Hughes - 5/1
· Private Vow - 8/1
· Stevie Wonderboy - 8/1
Our Spin: First Samurai is a deserving favorite, taking it to Henny Hughes in stellar performances in the Hopeful and Champagne in his last two. Henny Hughes is no slouch, and a deserving second favorite here who could spoil the party for Samurai. Then again, you’ve got Jerry Bailey on what might be the best two-year-old to come along in years. If Samurai is healthy going into the Triple Crown prep season, and continues to show the progress he’s shown so far (101 Beyer rating in a Grade I at two? Sick.), we’ll be calling the Triple Crown his to lose come March.

Filly & Mare Turf - 1 and 1/4 miles
· Ouija Board - 5/2
· Megahertz - 5/1
· Wonder Again - 6/1
Our Spin: Last year’s top three from this race return, with Ouija Board finishing a length and a half above Film Maker, who eked out second over Wonder Again. The rivalry will renew here, but let’s look at Megahertz in this mix too. How about eight of her last ten Beyers above 100? How about four wins, two seconds in six since last year’s F&M turf bomb? How about being a classic stalker with solid closing speed? Yeah, we’re pulling at straws… Ouija Board is a monster, and could smoke this field and be back at his feedbag before the rest cross the line. We’ll probably play Megahertz, and we’ll probably be tearing our tickets in disgust as she vainly tries to catch Ouija from two lengths back.

Sprint - 6 furlongs
· Lost In The Fog - EVEN
· Lion Tamer - 8/1
· Pomeroy - 12/1
Our Spin: Seriously, who else are you going to play here? Lost in the Fog is TEN FOR TEN lifetime, including five graded stakes (one GI) victories. These aren’t little wins either. Eight, five, seven, one, ten, four, five, five, fifteen and eight are the (rounded) margins of victory. Don’t fuck around, plan on getting even money or less, and single this play on every Pick-Whatever ticket you’re playing. Easiest play on the card by a mile. Now watch him lose to Roman Ruler by five.

Mile
· Leroidesanimaux - 5/2
· Starcraft - 4/1
· Valixir - 6/1
· Artie Schiller - 6/1
Our Spin: We used to love Artie Schiller, but despite the solid Beyer numbers, he hasn’t beaten many solid horses since the egg he laid in this race last year. On the other hand, every time we turned around this year, Leroidesanimaux was hanging big numbers all over the country. 112 Beyer at Santa Anita in March, 109 at Saratoga in August, 115 at Woodbine in September… We hate to keep jocking the favorites here, but when you’re just taking glances at the past performances (handicapping comes later) of the favorites, it’s hard not to see eight straight wins, seven of them graded, jump out at you.

Distaff - 1 and 1/8 miles
· Ashado - 5/2
· Stellar Jayne - 4/1
· Happy Ticket - 5/1
Our Spin: Ashado’s the returning champ, and has been a monster in the Distaff division since 2003. She is a seasoned big-race filly, having two years of BC racing under her belt (second in the Juvenile Filly, first in last year’s Distaff), and is nine for her last twelve posting Beyers over 100. We heart Ashado. She just keeps delivering race after race. Stellar Jayne is capable, but you run this race one hundred times, and Ashado’s winning 80. We’d try to talk up Happy Ticket, but do you want to play a Breeders’ Cup horse that was seasoned at Louisiana Downs?

Turf - 1 and 1/2 miles
· Azamour - 4/1
· Shakespeare - 5/1
· Motivator - 6/1
Our Spin: Gotta love European horses here. Turf races are often the domain of the Euros, and Azamour is an interesting pick as the favorite. He’s coming out of a pretty ugly fifth in a September G1 in Ireland, but did have two G1 wins in England prior to that seeming regression. Since Euro past performances are horrifically incomplete, the only thing we can draw here is that he was a solid favorite in three straight huge turf races. We saw Shakespeare on October 1st in the Turf Classic Invitational against a few from this race, and he ran an impressive and consistent race, which agrees with his recent form. The same race is good enough to contend here, and he’s five-for-five lifetime. If he stays at 5/1, that’s what we call “an omen.”

Classic - 1 and 1/4 miles
· Saint Liam - 3/1
· Rock Hard Ten - 7/2
· Borrego - 4/1
Our Spin: Put us squarely in the Rock Hard Ten camp. While Borrego’s last effort was absolutely sick (don’t be deceived by the four length win - had he been ridden strong down the stretch, he would have won by twenty), and Saint Liam beat some pretty impressive horses in the Woodward over this track in September (not to mention the 123 Beyer in a second place finish in the Whitney), Rock Hard Ten is the man. Four of his last four, and five of his last six. All graded. Ran second in the Preakness to an amazing Smarty Jones in 2004, and has only run two excusable and explainable bad races since. He’s a jaw-dropping physical specimen of a horse too, one of the few animals you’d see out at the races that would just stand out from the pack. Not that that matters, he just needs to be fast - which he is. The G2 Goodwood on October 1st was the perfect prep race for him too. Five months off, run a strong race against good competition, but obviously have a lot left in the tank at the end of the run. Check and check. Too many good horses in this race to totally jump on the bandwagon right now, but we’ve been believers a long time, and we’re still keeping the faith.

Breeders Cup [NTRA]
Daily Racing Form
Horse Racing Archive [Oddjack]

Breeders Cup 2005: Rock Hard Ten

READ MORE: Breeders Cup 2005, Horse Racing, Rock Hard Ten

File this one away for future reference: Rock Hard Ten is Sam Jack in Pulp Fiction. He’s Mace Windu, he’s Shaft. That is, he’s a baaaaad mofo. Rock is a likely Breeders’ Cup Classic favorite, and is running this weekend at the Oak Tree meet at Santa Anita in the Goodwood Stakes. How much of a threat is this horse?

Kristin Mulhall, the trainer of Imperialism, summed it up best as to why so many California-based runners decided to leave town.

“I want to avoid that big monster, Rock Hard Ten,” she said.

Rock Hard Ten is an enormously imposing horse physically, and looms like the Shaquille O’Neal of the BC Classic. He’s big, agile, fast, and if he’s not on your radar screen, he should be.

Rock Hard Ten scatters ‘em in Goodwood [ESPN]