Chopping Lines: Rebirth of the Padres

READ MORE: Chopping Lines, MLB Playoff Betting, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals

4:00 p.m.

San Diego Padres

Best Line: SD +250, STL -235

We’re probably going to regret doing this, but it’s Thursday and we’re in the mood to gamble. We’re also in the mood for a milkshake so if somebody could get on that, we’d appreciate it. As we previously showed, Cardinals’ starter Mark Mulder has been a wilting turd on the mound lately. Especially during day games. What we should focus on is how well Pedro Astacio has pitched for the Padres since coming over from the Texas Rangers. Astacio has won his last five starts with an ERA a little over 2 and pitched deep into games in most of them. Now that stud pitcher Jake Peavy is out for the year with a broken rib, somebody on the staff has to step-up and the Padres little offensive flurry the last two innings of the last game shows they’re a team that won’t go away as easily as people think. There’s a big pay-out on that +250 number; we’ll hop on it and hope for the best.

PICK!: SD +250

MLB Betting: Mulder’s Yips a Cause for Alarm

READ MORE: MLB Playoff Betting, Mark Mulder, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals

Beleaguered St. Louis Cardinals starter Mark Mulder takes the mound this afternoon for the second game of the National League Division Series against the San Diego Padres and the hefty -220 pricetag he’s carrying has some bookmakers perplexed. According to one Covers’ expert, this number is waaay too generous for Mulder considering his recent performances:

“I think there is some cause for concern,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril. “It’s one thing for him to get shelled, but to give up that many walks, that shows a control problem. Sure it didn’t mean much, but you just can’t turn it on right away.”

Mulder’s winless in his last six starts and has been wretched in day games—a 2-5 record with a 6.86 ERA, compared to a 14-3 record, 2.26 ERA when the lights come on. Obviously, Mulder has trouble pitching with a hangover. All those betting on the Cardinals today should hope he didn’t go all Kyle Orton last night.

Mulder’s Struggles Concern Handicapper [Covers]

MLB Betting: Not A Good Day To Be Named ‘Clement’ or ‘Oddjack’

READ MORE: Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, MLB Betting, New York Yankees, Recap, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals 8, San Diego Padres 5
Status=LOSS

· Well, apparently that whole Jake-Peavy-will-take-over-the-world theory wasn’t the best approach to take in yesterday’s St. Louis Cardinals-San Diego Padres game. The Padres pulled together a rally a little too late to keep us interested, but we were pretty sure the toothless Padres didn’t have a six-run 9th innning comeback in them. That was the one thing we were right about this game. The rest of the series appears to be all St. Louis—especially now that Peavy’s done for the year with a rib injury.

Chicago White Sox 14, Boston Red Sox 2
STATUS=WIN

· Matt Clement may have been the most over-hyped free agent since the Philadelphia Phillies signed Danny Tartabull as their clean-up hitter in 1995. Clement endeared himself to the Chicago White Sox faithful by promptly giving up eight runs yesterday in the White Sox 14-2 trouncing of the Red Sox. We’re happy Contreras came through for us, plus we hit the OVER bet thanks to Clement.

New York Yankees 4, LAA Angels 2
Status=LOSS

· Bartolo Colon betrayed us. What happened to that first-inning dominance? After Colon got popped around in the first inning, that was all the New York Yankees’ Mike Mussina needed after he went six shutot innnings, then Gordon, then Rivera, then ballgame. A Yankees versus White Sox LCS would be interesting.

Chopping Lines: Peavy’s Big Adventure

READ MORE: Chopping Lines, Chris Carpenter, Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals

1 p.m.

St.Louis Cardinals

Best Line: SD +184, STL -178

It’s a glorious afternoon for baseball. If only it were a bit colder outside, then we’d be absolutely perfect. The first game of the second season features the aformentioned Chris “Gamer” Carpenter versus Jake Peavy. If there’s a game the Padres can take, this is it. Peavy’s all gutsy and gritty, whereas Carpenter has taken the last month off because, well, he could. And what does he have to prove anyway? After two good seasons, he’s a Hall of Famer. Ahem. He’ll prove something if he can switch gears today. Unfortunatley, the Padres lineup has really nothing to fear—unless you’re of the mindset that Ryan Klesko is still “scary” and not in the Scott Engel sense, either. The Padres have as much momentum as they’ve had all year and the Cardinals are primed for a first game let-down. Even the drooling Cardinal kids with leg-braces and hockey helmets are worried. One ape says Padres.

PICK!: SD +180

MLB Betting: If I Were a Chris Carpenter…

READ MORE: Chris Carpenter, Jake Peavy, MLB Betting, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals

With St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Chris Carpenter pitching extraordinary throughout 85% of the year, it’s a little foolish to think that his September fart-bubbles should impact how most people are betting the first game of the Cardinals/San Diego Padres game tonight. But that is the case, according to Covers, which says the somewhat reasonable -190 pricetag on the Cardinals this evening is a sign that something’s up. Covers’ expert Brian Gabrielle admits he’s a little chafed by the drop in price.

“I’m a little surprised how low the line is. I’d have put [his odds] at –250. The only think that scares me is that he might be hurt and as a bettor, I’m just worried that someone knows something that I don’t.”

We can only assume it’s two factors: 1.) Padres starter Jake Peavy is a stud; 2.) Chris Carpenter pretty much admitted he’d been mailing it in throughout September—“Granted, as a competitor, the games mean a lot to you. But we clinched, and there was nothing on the line anymore, everybody was talking about who we’re going to play and what day we’re going to play and where, all that stuff. You lose a tiny little edge and you get beat.”

Wow, he sounds like a gamer. Just like Pete Rose, only without the hustle and pride part.

Carpenter’s Collapse Puzzles Sharps [Covers]
The Very Huge Major League Baseball Playoff Preview [BlackTable]

MLB Betting: Congratulations Padres! Now, Leave.

READ MORE: Futures, MLB, MLB Betting, Playoffs", San Diego Padres

After winning the National League West pennant last night, the San Diego Padres have quickly established themselves as one of the most chump-tastic franchises ever to reach the postseason, sporting a lofty 79-79 record, which in many ways has oddsmakers dismissing them from the playoffs all together. Right now, the Padres are +800 to win the National League pennant according to bookmaker BetonSports.com and may see even greater odds from other sportsbooks as soon as they finish making their post-season lines. The Padres will most likely face the St. Louis Cardinals—barring the Philadelphia Phillies win the wildcard(NOPE)—which will most likely be done in three games. However, our Corky-esque sibling over at Deadspin seems a bit worried about his Cardinals for some reason. Ah, Midwesterners.

Odds Stacked Against Padres [Covers]

No More Dreaming [SF Gate]

Chopping Lines: It’s a Peavy Party and Everyone’s Invited

READ MORE: A.J. Benza, Chopping Lines, Houston Astros, MLB Betting, San Diego Padres

10:05 p.m.

Houston Astros (67-58, R. Clemens)

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San Diego Padres (61-63, J. Peavy)

Best Line: SAN DIEGO + 100, HOUSTON -104

Bad year for rockets. First our Space Shuttle had two ceramic strips protruding from the heatshield on the orbiter’s belly. And now it looks Houston’s other rocket, Roger Clemens, might have a bulging disc protruding from his spine toward his 42-year-old belly. Very similar medical issues. Clemens was disastrous in his last outing, allowing five earned runs in 6 1/3 innings in a loss to Milwaukee. Houston management says Clemens’ back problem stems from a pulled muscle he sustained while moving a chair a few weeks ago. If the rumors we are hearing about Clemens are true, he might have been moving the chair to get to his supply of HGH. Meanwhile, Jake Peavy pitched superbly in a loss at Florida in his most recent start, giving up only two runs, both driven in by the bottom of the order. His strikeouts-to-walks ratio of 183 to 37 in 160 2/3 innings says, right now, he is off his ass and that makes San Diego the team to take here.

BENZAPICK!: SAN DIEGO +100
(YTD 4-1)

Chopping Lines: Show Us Your Redbird

READ MORE: Baseball, Chopping Lines, San Diego Padres, Sports Betting, St. Louis Cardinals

10:05 p.m.

St. Louis Cardinals (62-36, M. Mulder)

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San Diego Padres(50-49, W. Williams)

Best Line: Cardinals, -131

The St. Louis Cardinals are on the road looking to avenge losing three of four games at home to the Padres earlier this year. Tonight’s match-up pits last year’s Cardinals’ game 1 playoff starter RHP Woody Williams against the man who replaced him LHP Mark Mulder. It looks like the Cardinals made the right move letting Williams go to the Padres during the off-season.

Mired in a seven game losing streak, the Padres have a tenuous hold on first place in the NL West. San Diego hopes that Williams (5-6, 4.57 ERA). can deliver a much needed win against his old team. It has been a tough season for the righty who was injured in batting practice in the early part of the year and has struggled most of the year. Williams did not look good his last outing against the resurgent NY Mets. He gave up 10 hits and seven runs in six innings of work in San Diego’s 7-3 loss. The good news for the Padres came yesterday when Phil Nevin exercised his limited no trade clause and opted to stay in San Diego rather than move East Coast to Baltimore (understandable).

Conversely, Mark Mulder (11-5, 3.98 ERA) has been unstoppable at night. Consider this; he is 10-1 and boasts a 2.14 ERA under the lights this season. Mulder won his last decision against the Brewers on Wednesday. In seven innings the southpaw only gave up five hits and one run in the Cardinals’ 4-2 victory. Left-handers are batting .134 against Mulder, who hasn’t lost since June 22. Gamblers should know that the Cardinals have won each of his last five starts with Mulder going 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA over that time span.

Pick!: St. Louis, -131