Horse Racing: You Ask Horsey Questions, BG Answers

READ MORE: BG, Horse Racing, Saratoga

Resident Oddjack horse RZA, BG, fields a question from the befuddled readers begging for answers to their Saratoga horse needs. Bill G. writes in and asks this question:

While watching the races at Saratoga this weekend (Lost in the Fog is a truck, FYI), we noticed a betting oddity during the run up to the Travers. Roman Ruler and Bellamy Road were both tracking at 2-1, while Flower Alley sat at 3-1. In the exacta pool, however, the Roman Ruler-Bellamy Road exacta paid MORE than the Roman Ruler-Flower Alley exacta.

I’ve seen this type of skew before, but still don’t know the cause. Help?

BG:
It’s because every type of bet is paid out of a different betting pool - the win odds are the ones you see on the screen prominently displayed leading up to post time, but the exactas, trifectas, show pool, etc are all different pools entirely. Because every type of bet is paid out of a different betting pool, what you saw was a situation where the public was betting more heavily on the Roman Ruler/Flower Alley exacta than on the Roman Ruler/Bellamy Road exacta- and those bets don’t affect the win odds whatsoever.

At smaller tracks, on races with a much smaller handle (total amount bet on the race), some trainers and owners who have a horse they are trying to sneak into the winner’s circle at a big price use the exacta pools to effectively hide their bets. A $1K win bet on a Tuesday night race at Great Lakes Downs could drop a 10/1 horse well under 2/1. However, a 10/1 horse stays a 10/1 horse when the same $1K is bet using exacta wagering. You’ll rarely see a huge “skew” like this, but it’s always a good idea to look for anomalies in the betting patterns of exactas and trifectas just before post time. Sometimes you’ll find a horse a little overbet that you never even thought to plug into your own exotic wager.

Gambling Blues

Horse Racing: CompuTrak Picks Spa Saturday

READ MORE: CompuTrak, CompuTrak Picks, Horse Racing, Saratoga, Travers Stakes

It’s been a little while since we gave CompuTrak (not pictured) another chance to stand alone on its picks, but with a big day at Saratoga, and plenty of people playing the big multi-race wagers, we figured we’d let CT take a stab, and trot the results on out for you. After the jump, naturally…

Saratoga Saturday, August 27th

1) #6 Cathedral Lodge 20/1 on the Morning Line is the CT Pick, with similarly rated #1 Christian X at 6/1 close behind.
2) CT Picks #3 Megatrend 4/1, we suggest pairing Megatrend with #9 Seneca Point (10/1) in an exacta.
3) #1 Pulpit Exchange is the CT Pick and a Morning Line 3/1, with #2 Watchmon and #7 Shark both at 6/1 close behind.
4) No CompuTrak Pick, although the odds line likes three horses on top. 15/1 #6 Holden Champagne, 7/2 #1 Silver Strings, and 5/1 #8 Cologne.
5) #4 Prince Rahy gets the CT love at 6/1, with #9 Minister’s Joy at 15/1 closely rated.
6) #6 Political Force is the CT Pick, although the data isn’t extensive with only three horses generating figures.
7) CT really goes out on a limb with #6 Whale, as he’s the chalk at 7/5.
8) No CT Pick here, but look at 5/1 shot #3 Senor Swinger as a legit contender.
9) #4 Henny Hughes is the CT Pick. Unfortunately, he’s the chalk at 1/1
10) CT identifies #1 Fusaichi Rock Star at 15/1 as the pick, and he’s by far the best bet in this race as per the software. You’re a retard if you don’t figure #3 Lost In The Fog is going to win this one though.
11) In the Travers, the software likes #4 Roman Ruler at 5/2, followed by #7 Flower Alley at 3/1, then #1 Bellamy Road at 2/1.
12) #1 Tiverton is the chalk at 3/1, and the CT Pick to boot. Back him up with #11 Lion Cat at 15/1, who’s closely rated here.

And, as a bonus, how about a few races from the minor leagues?

Great Lakes Downs - Saturday, August 27th.

2) #6 Storm Witness and #5 Joya are both 8/1 on the Morning Line, and both are the clear favorites according to CompuTrak.
4) #8 Spirit of Prayer is a 10/1 M/L shot, the CT Pick, and another clear favorite as per the software in this race. Back up with #4 Revend (15/1) and #2 King of the Park (8/1) in an exacta.
5) #6 Tune Lender is the CT Pick, the chalk at 2/1, and a big favorite in this race.
7) #5 Mystic River is 3/1 on the Morning Line, and probably the best bet on this CompuTrak card.
9) 15/1 Morning Line choice #6 Prince of York has the best CompuTrak oddsline, and is definitely worth a look here.

CompuTrak [Revelation Profits]
For Race Information [Equibase]
Previously: Horse Racing: A Sucker For Technology [Oddjack]
Previously: Oddjack Expert: What the Hell Am I Betting On Here? [Oddjack]
Previously: Primer: Pretending You’re Not A Rookie At The Track [Oddjack]

Travers Stakes: Paddock Pete Picks Ponies

READ MORE: 2005 Breeders Cup, Bellamy Road, Horse Racing, Paddock Pete, Saratoga, Travers Stakes

We think Saturday’s Travers Stakes from Saratoga features one of the most obvious bad-bet favorites in recent memory with Bellamy Road chalked up at 2/1. Yesterday we told you to take a look at Flower Alley instead, and we’ll all get rich and retire to the Cayman Islands together. Just to give you a second opinion, we asked Paddock Pete to weigh in with his take on the “fourth jewel of the Triple Crown.” After the jump, he’ll let you all know if we’re full of crap or dead on the money…

PADDOCK PETE TAKES A SWING

If you’re looking to make money on this year’s Travers, fuhget about it. As you guys so astutely pointed out, you’re not likely to get anything higher than 7/2 on any of the three main contenders – Bellamy Road, Roman Ruler or Flower Alley. At 2-1 on the morning line, I think that Bellamy Road is absolutely unplayable. Though his victory in the Wood was the most visually stunning race this year, he has yet to duplicate that type of effort against anything more than second tier horses, Scrappy T. notwithstanding. Though this isn’t exactly the deepest Travers field in memory, he’s facing two formidable opponents in Flower Alley and Roman Ruler, and he won’t be getting away with any leisurely fractions on the front end today. And as much as I respect trainer Nick Zito, his record at this meet has been less than stellar, and I’d be quite shocked to see him pull a win out of his little bag o’tricks. I just think he’s a sucker horse; I’ll wait until he proves that his Wood win was no fluke before jumping on his bandwagon.

So that leaves Flower Alley and Roman Ruler, and of the two, you’re likely to get more value for your dollar with a wager on the steadily improving Flower Alley. After running unplaced in the Kentucky Derby in only his fifth career start, he’s come back with two strong efforts, finishing a close second behind Roman Ruler in the Dwyer before his sparkling win in the Jim Dandy, which earned him the second highest speed figure in today’s field, behind only Bellamy Road’s freakishly high number attributed to his score in the Wood. The potent trainer/jockey tandem of Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez is perpetually overbet, so I think if you can get anything close to 7/2 on this horse it would be a huge bargain.

That said, be wary of Roman Ruler. Bob Baffert has been high on this horse from day one, and I myself have been a huge fan of this colt all along. Now that his nasty quarter crack is finally under control, he’s ready to show people what he’s really made of, and he seems to be blossoming at just the right time. He’s thrived since arriving at Saratoga, his workout pattern has been spectacular, and I think there’s still room for improvement third start off the layoff. Would be no surprise to see him end up in the winner’s circle, but again, we’re trying to find value here, and he could very well go off the favorite. So of the three main contenders, Flower Alley looks like a solid bet.

Of the others, Andromeda’s Hero is a plodder who likes to clunk up for a piece of the pie from time to time, but he seldom wins; Chekhov is highly regarded but only has a maiden win to his credit; Don’t Get Mad can’t win outside of Churchill Downs; and Reverberate, though he looks like he’ll be a really good 4-year-old, doesn’t have the chops to pull off a win of this magnitude just yet.

So the pick here is Flower Alley over Roman Ruler, with Chekhov rounding out the trifecta.

Paddock Pete
Saratoga Home
Previously: Travers Stakes: Ignore What We Said About Not Playing Big Races [Oddjack]

Can Spotting Cheating At The Track Make You Money?

READ MORE: Horse Racing, John Pricci, Saratoga

Like boxing, horse racing to some people as a sport rife with cheats and angle shooters. While it’s undeniable that cheating does occur at the track, the easy availability of information makes hiding a horse’s capabilities from the betting public difficult. There are other angles however, where the horse’s connections can create overlay opportunities and attempt to clean up. From yesterday’s John Pricci column in They Are At The Post:

The latest incident occurred in today’s third race when there was a late announcement that Nolan’s Cat would race with blinkers on… with a more focused Nolan’s Cat, jockey Jerry Bailey could, and likely would, ride him more aggressively in the early stages. Moving earlier than usual to catch the leader, Nolan’s Cat defeated Sir Halory in a photo finish, returning an inflated $8. But no one had the opportunity to educate the public regarding a likely change of tactics.

Nolan’s Cat’s owner, Ken Ramsey, is a prolific bettor and… was fined for an incident at Turfway Park last winter in Kentucky in which he attempted to bribe a trainer on the also-eligible list to scratch if the horse drew into the race so that Ramsey’s horse could draw in instead. The rival trainer, a former nun before getting her trainer’s license, reported the incident to the stewards and Ramsey was levied a hefty fine.

Whether it was trainer Dale Romans who failed to notify the racing secretary’s office of today’s change, or whether it was human error in the racing department, it is besides the point. The public should not be made to pay for errors made in the face of rulings, honest mistakes or otherwise.

You can bet this was a purely intentional oversight, with Ramsey and Romans knowing they’d get an extra boost to the odds by withholding that information. Allegedly. The moral to the story at the track is be prepared, and always look carefully as to why a trainer is positioning a horse for a certain race, class, distance, or changing equipment. You’ll sometimes see the performance spike they were counting on, and odds you’ll be thrilled to play.

Pricci’s Saratoga Diary - August 25th [They Are At The Post]

Travers Stakes: Ignore What We Said About Not Playing Big Races

READ MORE: Bellamy Road, Breeders Cup 2005, George Steinbrenner, Horse Racing, Saratoga, Travers Stakes

In a previous post, we had encouraged you to to stay away from betting the big televised stakes races, especially if there was a name-brand super horse in the mix. Forget everything we told you.

Saturday’s Saratoga card features the Travers Stakes, and George Steinbrenner’s Bellamy Road has been named the Morning Line favorite at 2/1. We don’t care how skinny the payout might be, we want you to beat Steinbrenner. After the jump, we’re going to tell you exactly what you need to do to beat Bellamy Road at the windows this Saturday…

STAKES IS HIGH

The Travers Stakes is going to be a hotly contested race at Saratoga Saturday, and you need to be smarter than the crowd to show a profit after these horses cross the finish line. Bellamy Road is the Morning Line favorite, and the crowd is going to be behind him. He’s not going to win though, and here’s why, and what you need to do to beat him.

· Twenty-five starts, two wins. That’s trainer Nick Zito’s record over the last five years taking horses off a layoff of 45 or more days, and getting them right into a graded stakes race. Granted, one of them was Sun King just last month, but that was a G3 at Delaware Downs against nobodies. And yes, Zito did pull Birdstone out of mothballs last year to win the Travers, but it bears mentioning that Birdstone got the break after beating Smarty Jones in the Belmont, and Bellamy Road hasn’t won since hanging a 120 Beyer in the Wood back in April.

· Bellamy Road has beaten exactly zero horses worth a crap across his four victories, unless you want to count surprise Preakness Place horse Scrappy T. His two graded stakes victories both came with unchallenged runs to the front of the pack, but that’s unlikely to be the case here. Reverberate, and possibly Flower Alley will both be up pushing the pace, which will be a unique feeling for a relatively unseasoned horse.

· The two hottest horses in the three year-old class are both in this race as well. Roman Ruler looked to be a potential Derby horse back in late 2004, but was shelved after an injury in the San Felipe in March. He’s hung two straight Beyers in triple digits since his return, and has notched two graded stakes victories under Jerry Bailey. His workouts have also been bullets all month long. This horse should be the favorite, and any price north of 5/2 represents terrific value here. Flower Alley is coming off the outside, but has the “Spa Stakes Sure Thing” connection of Pletcher/Velazquez behind him. He too has rung up two Beyers in triple digits, but has already lost this summer to Roman Ruler (in an exciting July Dwyer from Belmont). Then again, he bounced off that loss to improve his Beyer up to 112, and ran five lengths the best in a victory over Reverberate and Andromeda’s Hero in the Jim Dandy.

SO TELL US WHERE TO PUT OUR MONEY ALREADY

The forgone conclusion of this race is that you’re going to see three horses as strong contenders, and all three are going to be firmly parked at 7/2 or lower. We’re hoping Flower Alley is the one the public forgets about. Why? The pace in the Dwyer back in July was absolutely brutal. They ran the first half in :45 and change, compared to a more leisurely :47 plus in the Jim Dandy. This race promises to be quite Dandy (cough) in that regard. Despite Bellamy Road’s reputation for getting out fast and setting up blitzing fractions, we think the layoff, the mile-and-a-quarter distance, and the possible pressing of the pace sets up nice for Flower Alley here. Roman Ruler could still strike in the stretch and notch a victory, but Flower Alley is really the one to watch in this spot. We like him quite a bit, despite the fruity name.

PLAY: To Win on Flower Alley

Saratoga Home
Bellamy Road is Favored in Travers [San Francisco Gate]
Previously: You’re Dead Money At The Track [Oddjack]

Horse Racing: Saturday Stakes at Saratoga

READ MORE: 2005 Breeders Cup, Bellamy Road, Horse Racing, Saratoga, Travers Stakes

Saturday at Saratoga features the $1M Travers Stakes, and the return of George Steinbrenner’s horse Bellamy Road from an injury. Trainer Nick Zito thinks he’s got the colt ready off a 112 day layoff:

“I know one thing, I have to ask Bellamy Road to do me a favor because it is a big, big step I’m putting him through; something that’s not an easy thing to do,” said Zito, who ran one-two in last year’s Travers with Birdstone and The Cliff’s Edge. “He is an exceptional horse so we’re just going to do the best we can.”

Zito drew the rail for Bellamy Road, and post two for his other entrant Andromeda’s Hero. Having the other speed farther outside could only help Bellamy Road break to the front early, making the colt that much harder to catch over the mile-and-a-quarter. Bellamy Road was installed as the 2/1 Morning Line favorite, but we’re convinced he can be beat. Give us a little while to look at the past performances, and come back this afternoon. We’ll break down how to beat Bellamy and make yourself some cash on this one.

Bellamy Road draws rail in Travers [ESPN]
Saratoga

Horse Racing: You Now Have Plans On Sunday

READ MORE: Breeders Cup 2005, Del Mar, Horse Racing, Saratoga

Only a few big races dot the ESPN schedule this weekend, and only a few big horses are lined up to take a shot. We do have three preps for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which is basically the Kentucky Derby for older horses, and one other big one on the card too. We’ll tell you who’s who, after the jump…

ONE OUT OF THREE AIN’T BAD

Three of the televised graded stakes races are pointing to the BC Classic division this weekend are the BC Handicap from Saratoga, the Longacres Mile from Emerald Downs, and the Pacific Classic Sunday from Del Mar.

Official entries aren’t in for the GII BC Handicap yet, but the story isn’t who’s in, but who’s out. Uber-horse Roses In May is skipping this race, probably pointing to the September 10th Woodward instead. Sunday’s GIII Longacres Mile also promises to be more of a “who’s that” instead of a “who’s who.” This hopefully makes for a better betting opportunity, without a Ghostzapper/Afleet Alex/Roses In May identifiable stud for the public to get behind in the field.

The Pacific Classic (GI) is set to be a little heavier on the name brand quotient, however. Perfect Drift, Lava Man, Borrego, and Choctaw Nation are in, and Island Fashion spins the “girls vs. boys” storyline, as she’s done a few times in her career. We’re still waiting for Borrego to come around fully, and can’t imagine Island Fashion can strike against a field like this one. In the absence of data to look at on this one at (cough) press time (cough), we’ll mention that we’ve always liked Perfect Drift and Lava Man, and at minimum should find this one to be an entertaining race.

SWEET AS SPUN SUGAR

Plausibly live on tape on Sunday’s telecast will be the replay of Saturday’s Alabama Stakes, a GI for three year-old fillies at Saratoga. The two prohibitive favorites here are Spun Sugar and Sis City, and we’ll throw our support behind Spun Sugar. Sugar has John Velazquez aboard, and Saratoga specialist Todd Pletcher pulling the strings. No reason this should be any more than a two horse race, so if you’re going to play it, you’ll either have to find that contrarian point of view, or wager heavy and stretch a skinny payoff wide with a huge bet.

Saratoga Home
Del Mar Home
Stakes Schedule [NTRA]
Entries, Programs, and Results [Equibase]
Previously: Oddjack Expert: What the Hell Am I Betting On Here? [Oddjack]
Previously: Primer: Pretending You’re Not A Rookie At The Track [Oddjack]

CompuTrak vs. Paddock Pete vs. Lindsay - Halftime Score

READ MORE: CompuTrak, CompuTrak Picks, Horse Racing, Paddock Pete, Saratoga

Through four races at Saratoga, Paddock Pete has jumped out to a nearly insurmountable lead. While CompuTrak did hit the winner in the second, so did Paddock Pete. Cash Flow paid $3.50 on the victory, but Pete managed to mix in the exacta for an additional $15 hit. Lindsay also caught a winner, Silvestris in the fourth. Thing is, that horse actually finished third, but was a paired entry with Beholden, who Pete hit for the same $3.90 payout.

That’s not all though. Pete hit the exacta and trifecta in the first, paying $38.40 and $87.50 respectively (not to mention the $3.80 win payout on Victory Circle). Lindsay and CompuTrak need a big hit over the last five to catch ol’ Pete.

Results from Saratoga Thursday, August 18th [Equibase]
Previously: CompuTrak Takes On All Comers [Oddjack]

Horse Racing: CompuTrak Takes On All Comers

READ MORE: CompuTrak, CompuTrak Picks, Horse Racing, PaddockPete, Saratoga

We love this man-versus-machine gambit, and since we paid for CompuTrak already, we may as well get some mileage out of the thing. Since we already let our own expert handicapper knock the binary out of that program last week, we were anxious to let someone else take a crack.

See who we found, after the jump…

SCIENCE MEETS METHOD MEETS MADNESS

One of our faithful readers sent in a link to a blogger calling himself Paddock Pete, who hit a real nice winner for himself yesterday at Saratoga:

Race 9 - Kate Winslet, Rahy’s Appeal, The Lamp Is Lit ($2 win paid $14.80, $2 trifecta paid $444; +444.80)

We thought we’d throw Paddock Pete to the wolves today. We’ll let him make his picks, but we’re putting him in the steel cage with CompuTrak and Friend-To-Oddjack Lindsay Robertson, who promised us she’d only pick the horses with the prettiest names. The ground rules? Each handicapper picks three horses per race, we throw them into the hypothetical machine and process out a boxed exacta, boxed trifecta, and three $2 win bets. Across nine races, that adds up to a mythical $270 apiece. We’ll keep you posted as to the progress through the day.

PADDOCK PETE STEPS TO THE PLATE

Copied from today’s entry on his blog:

Race 1 - Prep School, Victory Circle, Pincay
Race 2 - Park Shore, Cash Flow, Bizzy Cat
Race 3 - Spooky Mulder, Thunder Touch, Mr. Whitestone
Race 4 - Beholden, High Country, Royal Pleasure
Race 5 - Tax Considerations, Faster Tapper, Elusive Toga
Race 6 - Princess Dee, Those Littlethings, Embraceable You
Race 7 - She’s Sterling, Fastidia(GB), Just A Little Jet
Race 8 - Clever Electrician, Top Shoter, Papua
Race 9 - Drizzly, Haze My Man, Colonial Drive

COMPUTRAK TAKES A CRACK

1) CompuTrak doesn’t even try making picks in this one, but the oddsline will give us our trifecta. #2 Elusive Image (10/1) is the best rated, followed by #7 R.C. Indy at 15/1 and #6 Desert Swing at 6/1.
2) #2 Five Star Dream is the CompuTrak Pick, box her up with #8 Cash Flow (2/1) and #1 Fiddlers Trick (9/2).
3) #3 Thunder Touch is the M/L favorite at 7/5, and the CompuTrak Pick. Box him with #4 Key Deputy and #2 Spooky Mulder (7/2 and 3/1 respectively).
4) #4 Motion (20/1) is the pick, but without any data pulled for the other horses, this isn’t a ringing endorsement. Handle with care.
5) #5 Roxanne’s Dancer (10/1) is the Pick, with #2 Elusive Toga (12/1) and #3 Tax Considerations (5/2).
6) #4 Doctorinthenews (8/1) gets the CompuTrak love, with #7 Those LittleThings (3/1) and paired third choices #6 Shoot the Bugler (15/1) and #5 Predatory Lender (5/1).
7) No CompuTrak pick, but the oddsline gives us #9 Stock Tip (12/1), #5 Captiva Bay (8/1), and #4 Just a Little Jet (5/1).
8) #5 Clever Electrician (5/2) is the CompuTrak pick, and the best bet on the card today. Add #4 Top Shoter (3/1) and #8 Seeking the Money (30/1).
9) No pick, and we can see why. The software sees this as a huge crapshoot, with any of seven horses similarly bunched. Look at #11 Haze My Man (7/2) with #7 Thundering Creek (15/1) and #6 Outdraw (8/1) as the top three.

LINDSAY SAYS HORSES ARE PRETTY

Lindsay takes her turn:

1) Prep School / Aristocrat / Copyco
2) Access Alex / Jilted Lady / Bizzy Cat
3) Spooky Mulder / Mr. Whitestone / Thunder Touch
4) Party Circuit / Silvestris / Royal Pleasure
5) Faster Tapper / Flower Flag / Roxanne’s Dancer
6) Those Littlethings / Embraceable You / Shoot the Bugler
7) Expect Nothing / Flaming Heart / Pixie Stix
8) Clever Electrician / Seeking the money / Jet Prospector
9) Drizzly / Colonial Drive / Haze My Man

Previously: BG vs. CompuTrak - The Final Score [Oddjack]
Previously: Horse Racing: A Sucker For Technology [Oddjack]
Previously: Oddjack Expert: What the Hell Am I Betting On Here? [Oddjack]
Previously: Primer: Pretending You’re Not A Rookie At The Track [Oddjack]

Horse Racing: Reader Mail

READ MORE: 2005 Breeders Cup, CompuTrak, CompuTrak Picks, Horse Racing, Saratoga

Esteemed reader “MT” checks in with the following question.

“Are you going to give us the machine picks for the NTRA Pick Four? I’m looking to beat Kitten’s Joy and need all the help I can get.”

We’ll lay it out for MT, after the jump…

TAKE YOUR PICK

The NTRA Pick Four this weekend covers four huge Stakes races - two at Arlington Park (including the Arlington Million), and two at Saratoga. As always with the big races, we rarely see them as big money making opportunities despite the enormous handle being on TV can generate. There’s usually smarter money than you wagering huge sums, and unless there’s a true “name brand” horse (think: the underwhelming Funny Cide) in the race for the public to put way too much money on, you’re probably not finding a ton of value to be had. We’ve covered this before in another post.

But, if you’re going to bet, you’re going to have to do it without CompuTrak’s assistance. We didn’t pull the data for the two cards, and can’t get to it in time for it to make a difference for you anyway (unless, by some miracle, we update this post late tonight or tomorrow - you may want to bookmark this space for later).

There is some decent analysis on the Pick Four, which can be found on the NTRA site. On the topic of beating Kitten’s Joy, Ellis Starr offers this analysis:

Kitten’s Joy, the 2004 Eclipse Winner as best male turf horse, came back from over eight months off on July 4 to win the Grade 2 Firecracker Breeders’ Cup Handicap. That race, run at one mile, puts Kitten’s Joy in shape to more forward nicely, back to the form shown last year and before the layoff that won him the Eclipse. One of those victories came at this distance and over this course on this day last year in the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes, restricted to three-year-olds only, but since Kitten’s Joy beat older foes in two of his last three starts the only question is whether he can improve enough off his last to win this race with these tough foes.

Can you beat him in this spot? We’re saying no. Single him on your ticket, try to build up possibilities in the Beverly D., and don’t ignore Kelly’s Landing in the Vanderbilt. ABC has the telecast for you at 4PM EST on Saturday.

SATURDAY SELECTIONS FOR SARATOGA/ARLINGTON VIA COMPUTRAK

Updated 935AM Saturday 8/13/05

Arlington - Saturday 8/13/05 Card

1) CompuTrak likes 2/1 #7 Joe W.
2) No “CompuTrak Pick” made for this race. Not a lot of data to play with on this one either.
3) #1 Golden Verse is a 12/1 M/L shot, and the CompuTrak pick. Lots of things to like about this horse here - so long as you can get past that he’s stepping up from $4k claiming ranks to face horses in the $14k class.
4) CompuTrak likes #8 Powder River under Shawn Bridgmohan as a 6/1 pick here.
5) 4/1 on the M/L, CompuTrak advises #1 Nkosi Reigns.
6) No pick here by the software, and their oddsline likes exactly none of these horses as a prohibitive favorite. According to their numbers, you might be able to find value on the #1 if he goes off above 5/1. Tough race to play here.
7) Three reasons to like the #3 here. First, it’s the CompuTrak pick. Second, it’s 15/1. Third? He’s named Bob O’s Boy. You know how we love betting on horses named Bob. Back it up with the #1 Straight Line at 3/1 for insurance.
8) No pick by CompuTrak in the Beverly D. That being said, if you’re just looking at the oddsline it calculates, you have a longshot to mix in. #3 Miss Terrible is 10/1 on the M/L, has Patrick Valenzuela aboard, and rates well on the software’s nebulous “Friction” rating. For NTRA Pick Four purposes, mix in #9 Angara and #7 Melhor Ainda.
9) Any guesses who CompuTrak likes in the Million? #1 Kitten’s Joy gets the love here. By how much on the software’s oddsline? Not a lot, really. Kitten’s Joy gets a 3.08 (lower = better, obviously), while #7 Sweet Return gets a 3.67, followed by #4 Fourty Niners Son at 4.88 and #10 Cool Conductor with 5.47 on the line. Looking at the data, we really like Sweet Return. There you go MT, that’s how you beat a Kitty.
10) No picks here either. The one horse from the four contenders to toss is the #3 More Moonlight, who holds the 2/1 M/L support. The other horses in the 4/1 neighborhood are similarly rated as good choices.
11) Another race, another pass by CompuTrak. It’s worth mentioning that #2 Purim holds the 5/2 Morning Line chalk, but is rated as the unlikeliest factor of this group. Try #5 Legal Precedent, who should have value with a 15/1 M/L instead.
12) #4 Johnny Red Kerr is a 3/1 Morning Line pick, and worth a look as the CompuTrak pick in this race - unless they pull the horses off the turf to the main track, then you’re going to have to analyze this one on your own.

Saratoga - Saturday 8/13/05 Card

1) CompuTrak likes #3 Somethingdangerous. Good stuff at 6/1 on this pick.
2) #2 Megatrend is the CompuTrak Pick at 5/1 on the M/L.
3) The software likes both the #1 and #2. That being said, those are the only two horses the software could sort data for. Pass on these as viable picks.
4) CompuTrak shows #3 Hot Space as their pick, we suggest adding #2 Executive Choice. Both are 3/1, and maybe an exacta can make some money here.
5) No software selection, and with slim data to choose from, we’re not disappointed. Look to #4 Winning Minister, or play our patented Double Bob pick of the day: #6 Crafty Roberto ridden by Robby Albarado.
6) No picks, and this is a wide open race. Good luck making sense of this one.
7) The Vanderbilt is part of the NTRA Pick Four, and that makes CompuTrak’s pick of the chalk disappointing. They advise #5 Smokume, but we suggest mixing in #4 Pomeroy and #7 Kelly’s Landing to round out your ticket.
8) No pick by the software in the Sword Dancer, which closes out our NTRA Pick Four analysis. We looked at the CompuTrak data, and suggest #1 Meteor Storm at 6/1 and #2 Vangelis at 10/1. You may want to toss #8 Better Talk Now into this spot too if he’s running this race.
9) Way to go out on a limb CompuTrak. We like 4/5 M/L pick #3 The Daddy too.
10) No CompuTrak pick in another wide open race. We’re not enthused when a computer can’t just take a stand.

NTRA Pick Four Ticket, as per CompuTrak

Beverly D. - 3 & 7 & 9
Million - 1 & 7
Vanderbilt - 5 & 4 & 7
Sword Dancer - 1 & 2

Price = 3 x 2 x 3 x 2 = $36

Screw Kitten’s Joy Ticket, as per Oddjack

Beverly D. - 6 & 7 & 9 (throwing longshot out, adding 4/1 Wend, ignoring Megahertz)
Million - 4 & 7 & 10
Vanderbilt - 4 & 7 (tossing Smokume, looking to score big)
Sword Dancer - 1 & 2 (and leaving Better Talk Now off hurts)

Price = 3 x 3 x 2 x 2 = $36

National Thoroughbred Racing Association [NTRA]
Previously: You’re Dead Money At The Track [Oddjack]
Previously: Horse Racing: A Sucker For Technology [Oddjack]
Previously: Oddjack Expert: What the Hell Am I Betting On Here? [Oddjack]
Previously: Primer: Pretending You’re Not A Rookie At The Track [Oddjack]

Horse Racing: CompuTrak vs. BG - The Final Score

READ MORE: CompuTrak, CompuTrak Picks, Horse Racing, Saratoga

Who’s the man? BG took the early lead through four races, posting three winners to CompuTrak’s one. It didn’t help, of course, that the software sat on its (figurative) hands and refused to play along for the first half of the program.

From the fifth through the ninth and final race, BG continued to exert his dominance over CompuTrak. They both picked the #8 Blue Forest in the fifth, and she finished a close second to a 9/1 shot coming out of nowhere. The sixth was a wash for both parties, and the seventh was another instance where CompuTrak didn’t feel like scratching out a pick. BG’s #5 Maytown went off as the favorite, and ran a nose behind 10/1 horse Taint So.

But BG finished strong in the eighth, hitting the 4/1 third choice on the board Cloakof Vagueness. CompuTrak? Whiff. When they both finished the ninth without hitting the board the tally stood. BG - 4 / CompuTrak - 1. Man beats machine, as it was always meant to be.

Saratoga Results [Equibase]
Previously: Horse Racing: CompuTrak vs. BG - Halftime Score [Oddjack]
Previously: CompuTrak vs. BG [Oddjack]

Horse Racing: CompuTrak vs. BG - Halftime Score

READ MORE: CompuTrak, CompuTrak Picks, Horse Racing, Saratoga

Four races down at Saratoga, and BG is showing up big, while CompuTrak is rolling over and letting him run away with this thing without a fight.

BG and CompuTrak both hit the race one winner Zippy Missy, paying $5.50 on the win. But while the software didn’t sack up and make picks across the next three, BG did. He hit Love to Tango in the second ($9.20 to win), missed by a length on Yes Please in the third (placed to Dina), and his advice to take the chalk in the fourth paid off with My Dynomite, returning $2.90 on the win.

BG in the lead, three winners to one. We’ll let you how this ends up when the ninth is over.

Saratoga Results [Equibase]
Previously: CompuTrak vs. BG [Oddjack]