Blackjack: All The Information College Kids Need To Know

READ MORE: Blackjack, Strategy, Tips

Just what any progressive college newspaper needs: a gambling column. That’s what we have from the California State University paper The Orion as columnist Laurence Tognetti dishes out some keg-stand wisdom about Blackjack, aptly geared to the giggling sorority sister in all of us. We wouldn’t exactly call some of his tips pearls of wisdom or anything, but it’s useful nonetheless to photocopy and stick in the pocket of your idiot friend the next time you decide to head to Atlantic City. Another suggestion would be to stay away from Blacjack all together since the house is always at a huge advantage. Oh, and also never swallow live goldfish. They lay eggs in your stomach and sometimes you poop guppies. So, we’ve heard.

Tognetti’s Top Ten Blackjack Tips of the Trade [The Orion]

Future Bets Are For Pussies

READ MORE: Betting, Covers, Opinions, Strategy

Are you saying our +900 bet on the Padres was crap?

Covers Opinions [Covers]

Game Most Likely Not to Be Seen at a Wynn Casino Anytime Soon

READ MORE: Roulette, Strategy

We’re assuming Kanzen’s Roulette Strategy probably wouldn’t help with this.

Teen Choking Game [NBC 10]

Oddjack Expert: The First Thing To Know About Horse Handicapping

READ MORE: Horse Racing, Oddjack Expert, Strategy

There’s a fundamental difference between picking horses and handicapping a horse race. Handicapping is the complex process of figuring out who’s got what chance to win the race and why, while picking horses is about basing a selection on your handicapping efforts. After the jump, we’ll give you a look at a key concept for handicapping - determining pace…

SEEING THE FUTURE FROM THE RACING FORM

Pace handicapping isn’t the only method to divining a winner, but it’s easily the most important aspect of handicapping. Past performances are loaded with data, and if you can jump to the logical conclusion that past performance can be an indicator of future results, then identifying a horse’s running style should be relatively easy. Every race featured in the past performances contains a pace line, which identifies their position in relation to the leader and the horse in front of them at different points in the race. For example:

4² 5³ 3¹ 1^21/2 1^21/2

Assuming this race was at least 6^1/2 furlongs, you’ll see four points of call (fewer calls on shorter races). The first is position at the quarter (mile) pole. “4²” means fourth place, two behind the leader. The second call is the half pole. Keep in mind, this is the half-mile pole, not the halfway-through-the-race pole. Fifth, three behind the leader is the call here. Naturally, the three-quarter pole call is next, and it’s obvious that the horse has made a move from the half to the three-quarter. The fourth call is the “stretch call.” This shows where the horse is in the stretch, and in races of a mile or less is identical to the final call. The last call you’ll see is the finish call. The horse kept moving forward through the final half, putting 2^1/2 lengths between himself and second place at the wire.

Let’s assume this was the most recent race for this horse, and his last three races (all at a mile distance) had pace lines that looked like this (from most recent to least):

4² 5³ 3¹ 1² 1²

5³ 4³ 3¹ 2^neck 2^neck

5⁸ 6⁶ 5² 4⁸ 4⁸

What can you infer about this horse’s running style? The first thing you’ll notice is that this horse doesn’t open strong. Many horses have a late kick and don’t want to lead from wire-to-wire. But look at the lengths behind this horse was in the two most recent compared to the third. Either the horse came out sluggishly on that third line, or there was some hot speed in front of him. The three-quarter call on that pace line indicates that he probably closed a lot of ground between the half and three-quarter (like usual), but the finishing kick was not there, as he lost by a fairly wide margin. The assumption that there was a good deal more “early speed” in the race than he was used to facing is probably a good one. Early speed will look like this on a pace line (note first two or three points of call only):

1¹ 1¹ 1² 5⁴ 5⁴

This line shows a horse that fired early, held a solid lead through three-quarters, but couldn’t close the deal.

RUNNING THE RACE BEFORE THE RACE IS RUN

So how do you use these numbers? You’ve got to put the puzzle together using the data you’ve been given and run the race in your head. Let’s say you’ve got seven horses in a race, and you’re looking only at the most recent pace lines (you’ll need look at more than one each, this is just an example) to try and figure out what’s going to happen. Assume all these horses ran miles their last time out, just to keep the data consistently comparable. Here’s the data you’re using:

#1 Abba Girl - 1² 2² 2¹ 3¹ 3¹

#2 BringSome - 3³ 4⁴ 4³ 2¹ 2¹

#3 Canonball - 6⁶ 5⁷ 6⁹ 8¹¹ 8¹¹

#4 Dreadnaut - 1¹ 1² 1⁵ 1^head 1^head

#5 EitherOar - 1¹ 1³ 1⁵ 3^neck 3^neck

#6 FoneTrick - 4⁵ 5⁷ 6⁷ 1¹ 1¹

#7 Gazzeloni - 2¹ 3¹ 3¹ 1⁵ 1⁵

What’s going to happen when they open the gates? First thing to notice is that there are three horses here who are going to want to be out front - Abba Girl, Dreadnaut, and EitherOar. Abba Girl’s got the rail, and that’s going to benefit her quite a bit, letting her settle into position without any contention from her left (where there’s no one), or from the horses to her immediate right - both of whom aren’t likely to battle her for the front of the pack. Dreadnaut and EitherOar should be able to move out front pretty easily too, so you can assume they’re going to be fighting for the front before they even hit the quarter pole.

So where does that leave the rest of the pack? BringSome and Gazzeloni are stalkers. They’re going to try to sit just off the pace and fire when the time is right. Canonball is a dog, you can throw that horse right out of your pace scenario. Someone’s got to be in last place, right? FoneTrick is the deep closer of the pack. She’s layed well off the pace, and is very capable of striking in the last quarter mile, having made up quite a bit of ground in her last.

At this point you know roughly how the race should shape up through the first three-quarters. The three front-runners will fight for the lead, BringSome and Gazzeloni will wait for their chance to move up, FoneTrick is going to be content to wait to strike, and Canonball will bring up the rear.

SO THIS IS ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW, RIGHT?

So who’s going to win? Unfortunately, you’re not going to be able to tell just from the pace lines. Gazzeloni’s recent effort looks really good, but you’ll have to consider if her competition was as good as these horses - or more importantly, as fast. If there was no speed (no pace) in that last race at all, it’s easy for a capable stalker to let a plodding race shape up around them and fire out for the victory. If there’s three horses burying the needle on the speedometer in front of her, she might have a problem. EitherOar looks like she might have problems finishing, but if her competition was a good deal better than these, she may be one to look at. FoneTrick will probably be the trickiest one to predict. How much early speed was in her last? Is she only good at catching tiring horses, or is she passing strong finishers? What happens when a capable stalking horse is in front of her?

For every question you’re able to answer looking at the pace lines, you should be asking yourself another. Why was BringSome not able to win last time? Is a Place for her in that company a good effort? What’s Canonball doing in this race? Do her connections see something you don’t? Just how good was Dreadnaut’s wire-to-wire victory? Is she likely to repeat the effort?

The first key to handicapping is understanding what you think could possibly happen on the track. You’ll need to bring some knowledge of speed and class as well, but pace is the first step to making an informed selection. Without an understanding of pace and how the race is likely to play out, you’re just left guessing on funny names, pretty colors or lucky numbers.

Past Performances Tutorial [Daily Racing Form]
Previously: Oddjack Expert: What the Hell Am I Betting On Here? [Oddjack]
Previously: Primer: Pretending You’re Not A Rookie At The Track [Oddjack]

In a Rut Playing Poker?

READ MORE: Poker, Strategy

If you’re the type of guy that plays a few poker tournaments here and there, but are looking to get over the hump, MSNBC’s Charles Mousseau has some goofy ideas for you. Now, we were all ready to laugh at the guy, but in reality it’s nice to see weird ideas that have a little value if played right. Here’s a sample:

No. 1: Watch a few hands unfold at your table from a different physical location.

This helps you with your viewpoint, both in the figurative and in the optical sense. By standing up, you might be able to see things that an obstruction would otherwise prevent, such as one player having a lot more chips than you thought, or someone else acting generally irritable under certain circumstances. It might help you down the road.

There’s a little more to it than that, but you get the idea. Keep mixing it up in your own head, and you’ll find yourself a little more alert, a little more aware, and ready to approach each decision just a bit fresher than your usual rut would allow.

Five unconventional tips to poker success [MSNBC]

Casino Strategy: The Best Advice Comes From Those Who Don’t Bathe

READ MORE: Casino Buzz, Casinos, Strategy

Over at Casino Buzz, a reader asks the question of what is the best advice ever given to Mark L. of and he fires back with an amusing anecdote about a panhandler and a hot dog:

A panhandler approached and asked if I had any loose change so he could buy a hot dog. Unfortunately, spare change doesn’t exist in Las Vegas. Strategically positioned slot machines allow you to travel light. But I guess I’m an easy mark for a hot dog story so I gave him a nickel chip-casino talk for $5-that I had in my coat pocket.
After his gratitude for my allowing him to bump up into buffet dining, or whatever, he shared some of his best gaming wisdom. “Go downtown to Binion’s and make a pass line bet and take those 10 times odds. It’s one of the best bets in the house,” he said.

And, sadly, immediately after the panhandler was beaten by some crackheads for his $5 and left for dead. But Mark also assures us that this advice is sound:

The house advantage on this wager is .018%. Those multiple odds he was talking about- zero casino advantage. It’s the line bet where the casino enjoys its slight edge. And I mean slight. Expected mathematical loss on a $1 line bet with $10 odds, about 4¢. But we can combat that too, Ned. Throw in a few free drinks and pry a breakfast out of a floorman, you’re getting to the point where they’re paying you to play.

Good Advice Can Come From Anywhere [Casino Buzz]

Freak Economist Wants Your Poker Hands

READ MORE: Poker, Pokernomics, Strategy

In the best-selling book Freakanomics, Steven Levitt trolled the vast universe of human behavior and applied economic theory to create predictive outcomes and dispell myths and find similarities about human nature. Now, Levitt is taking his data-crunching and analyzation skills to the poker table. Or, better yet, letting the poker players bring the information to him. Levitt’s project utilizes players’ hand histories to find out potential myths and realities behind such poker strategies like “Does having a big stack of chips allow a player to bully other players into winning more of their money?” or “To what extent does position from the button and position of other players matter?” Players who submit 10,000 hands to the program get their game anaylzed for free.

Pokernomics [Pokernomics]

Don’t Switch Numbers! You Reduce Your Totally Randomized Odds!

READ MORE: Online Gaming, Roulette, Strategy

From Online Casino Report:

If you are not consistent in your bets and your numbers are all over the board, it weakens your chances of winning at online casino roulette. Over the long run, it would benefit you to stick to certain numbers, since there is the same exact chance that the ball will land on all the numbers. By switching numbers with each spin of the roulette, you reduce your odds of winning at online casino roulette.

So, that’s our plan tonight is to sit a home, pick our lucky numbers and just wait the roulette machine out. Eventually, 37, 3, and 39 will have to hit, right? Talk to you guys in a couple weeks, we have to go put on our bathrobe and play online roulette.

Tips For Playing Roulette in the Online Casino [Online Casino Report]

Gambling: Making Smart Bets

READ MORE: Gambling, Strategy

Casino City Times columnist John Grochowski outlines a familiar gambling adage for those of us who like to do a little more than just throw money away because it’s our legal right in certain parts of the country. In his latest column, Grochowski definitively gives the list of which games are the smart bets and which ones are for the suckers:

Where to draw the line? In 109 Ways to Beat the Casino (edited by Walter Thomason, $13.95, Bonus Books), in which several gambling authors, including myself, contributed tips, Dr. Henry Tamburin puts the cutoff at 1.5 percent. That limits game choices to the best bets at craps, blackjack for a basic strategy player, baccarat and many video poker games, provided the player learns the strategies needed to attack them.

Choosing What You Play [Casino City Times]

Excavating Greenstein

READ MORE: Poker, Strategy

Poker blogging editrix Felicia Lee shares some interesting insights about professional poker player Barry Greenstein and the friendship she’s developed with him. Lucky for us, she’s picked his brain offered up some of the Greenstein wisdom:

Most of my regular readers know about my utter confusion regarding top players and their distaste at looking at their hole cards when the bring-in is on them. That is how Barry was crippled by me, and soon after eliminated. I felt he had a good chance of cashing until that hand, and it baffled me for six months, until I got to talk to Barry about it.Nothing is ever as simple as it seems, although I’d like to think so. I make assumptions which are sometimes so off base, only to find out later that I was wrong all along.I didn’t see Barry again until Foxwoods, although I’d “talked” to him a few times on 2 2. We chatted a bit during breaks at FW events, then were seated together in the main, 2k Stud event. I wasn’t really happy to be seated next to Barry (on his left, at least), but this gave us a chance to talk, at any rate.During a break he told me more about my incorrect assumption that WCP don’t look at their hole cards when they are the bring-in because they feel they can outplay anyone later in the hand. He corrected me by saying that in a Stud tourney, many chances must be taken in order to win. One of the chances a player takes is that he might actually have a hand when he is the bring-in. He memorizes the doorcards, chucks in his BI, and then watches the action unfold. When the action returns to him, he checks his hole cards, and if he has a hand, he limp-reraises. Sure, sometimes his lack of checking first costs him a pot, but more often it builds him a bigger pot, and gives him a chance to actually win a tourney, instead of just surviving for another hour, while raking in the antes. That is where I went wrong. I won little pots, never putting myself out on the line to win. [B]arry said that although there is always a small chance that you will be outdrawn by “playing to win,” most of the time you will put yourself in the position to win a Stud event. And if you never take a chance, you can never win.

Barry Greenstein [Felicia Lee]

Play Better Poker, You Drooling Moron

READ MORE: Poker, Strategy

Poker blogger HDouble checks in this week with a status report as to what has gotten him past being a nickel and dimer, and into the bigger money limit games in the California card rooms.

As I continued to gain experience at the live tables and the virtual tables, I began to see that my advantage over my opponents came mostly from two things: discipline and knowledge accumulated away from the table. Unlike my opponents, I wasn’t there to gamble. I was there to play my best poker and the discipline to throw away my cards when I didn’t have the best of it gave me an advantage over people who were happy to put their money in on a coin flip. These same opponents also weren’t interested in studying the game, putting in the long hours away from the table thinking about such fine-grained concepts as how much equity suited aces have in multi-way pots.

We haven’t been as intensive in our study as HDouble has been, and his article touches on some of the more unique sources of his poker education. While certainly the well-known poker books should be part of any course of study, tools such as Wilson’s Turbo Texas Hold ‘Em and the web content of Abdul Jalib and Izmet Fekali are not as well known by your competitors, and can help provide you an edge at the tables.

How do you get an edge over people who have mastered this game? If all of the experts know the odds and how to exploit their tiny edges, how do you beat the experts? What is the difference between the best players in the game and the good players in the game?

The tiny percentages of Expected Value that accumulate by making the right play over and over again in the toughest situations differentiate the great from the good. I’m convinced that these tiny edges can be discovered through careful and thoughtful simulation.

Paraphrasing the “Fundamental Theorem of Poker” from David Sklansky’s Theory of Poker, “When you play a hand differently than you would have played it if you could see your opponents’ cards, your opponents gain. When you can help your opponents make those kind of mistakes playing against you, you gain.” Therefore, being as prepared for every situation imaginable at the tables can only help you win. HDouble’s advice provides a good place to start.

Turbo Texas Hold ‘Em [Wilson Software]
Abdul Jalib’s Preflop Strategy [RGP]
Izmet Fekali’s Playing With The Fish [archive]
HDouble’s Poker Blog [Cards Speak]

First Team to Score Wins: Wake Us When It’s Over

READ MORE: Sports Betting, Strategy

Baseball addict and nebbish jerk-off George Will tells us that MLB is the perfect game for a sleepy summer afternoon, so why are we surprised that two-hour forty-five minute games, pitching changes every third of an inning and endless pitcher-catcher conferences leave us in a stupor? We only start paying attention when the going gets good. At Bet365 and Betroyal, the “first team to score wins” bet is pretty attractive. During last weekend’s Interleague play, the first team to score won 27 of 45 games – a 60 percent clip.

So where’s the edge? Remember your days as a pint-sized, wild-swinging fool in Little League! OK, so maybe you’ve blocked out the shame and degradation, but you should have learned at least one life-lesson – the away team is up first every inning. Almost always then, the away team gets the shorter odds, so look to the other side. The home team scored first and won in 18/45 games over the weekend – a smart bet at 40 percent.

So let’s look to a “no” bet for the “first team to score wins” in the Mariners v. A’s game tonight – pays a sweet 8/5. We also like the “no” side in the Giants v. Diamondbacks game, which pays out 7/5.

For a good jolt on a long summer day, only a really complicated Starbucks drink beats tuning into ESPN and vegging out until the hometown crowd cheers.

First Team To Score Wins [Bet365]
First Team To Score Wins [Betroyal]