Breeders Cup: The Coup De Grass (aka The Turf Championship)

READ MORE: 2005 Breeders Cup, Horse Racing, Turf

Breeders’ Cup Saturday is almost here, and we’re almost through the entire card. We’ve got the Turf Championship today, which features more European horses than an existentialist documentary on glue in the mid 20th century. Um, yeah - just get to the picks. Today’s brekadown, after the jump…

TURF, RACE 9 - ONE AND ONE HALF MILES ON THE TURF FOR THREE-YEAR-OLD AND OLDER HORSES

LAST YEAR…

28-1 Better Talk Now passed 3-5 favorite Kittens Joy and 3-1 Powerscourt to take the race. The Exacta paid $135, the Trifecta $492, and the Superfecta $1,483.

PACE, SPEED, AND FORM

Pace: On the grass, you’re not terribly concerned about the front-runners. Dave Liftin from The Daily Racing Form (in purchased PDF content, else we’d link you) says to look for “off-the-pace runners, preferably with at least two Grade 1 or Group 1 wins, who are proven at the distance… year-in and year-out short-priced horses who have done their best running at up to 10 furlongs come up short.” Who fits this mold? Alkaased (15-1), if he runs, has a single Group 1 victory, but solid “Timeform” ratings (European speed figures) as a back of the pack runner. Azamour (4-1) too, working the pace as a deep closer in a July Group 1 win. Last year’s champ Better Talk Now (8-1) has been spotty since last BC Turf, but does have two G1 wins at close to this distance. They all come from farther off the pace than Fourty Niners Son (12-1), whose Clement Hirsch G1 victory from earlier this month came from no more than five back at any point. He’s been solid previously, but seems to be coming into his own. Plus, he’s a half-brother to Funny Cide, which we’re certain the announcers will mention about a dozen times. There is another horse to worry about here, but we’ll talk about Shakespeare (5-1) in a minute.

Speed: Too many Euro-horses in this race, and we hate messing with Timeform vs. Beyer numbers. Frustrating. Better Talk Now’s 108 Beyer in early September is the best number posted recently by an American runner, Azamour’s 129 Timeform figure in July is the best European number from 2005.

Form: We promised we’d talk about Shakespeare. Undefeated, consistent, a son of Turf stud Theatrical, and seems to be getting better at every turn. He was even money his last out in a very tough Turf Classic Invitational in early October, and ran comfortably behind a fairly slow pace, turning it on at the three-quarters pole and pulling ahead for a hard fought victory. His workouts aren’t spectacular, but trainer Bill Mott is 22% for winners in routes, and 21% for winners on turf. He’s young enough (only five lifetime starts at four years old) that people will raise a skeptical eye, and that’s okay by us. He’ll hopefully be priced as attractively as any undefeated horse in this spot could hope to be.

LIVE LONGSHOT: FOURTY NINERS SON - 12-1

One thing we find ourselves guilty of at the track is looking only at the last couple races for a horse and falling in love. In that vein, Fourty Niners Son is a longshot with terrific recent form. His last out at the Clement Hirsch in early October wasn’t against the best turf horses on the planet, as he’ll be facing here, but we like his running line there quite a bit. After a lackluster showing in the Arlington Million where he fell behind early and made up ground in vain, Fourty kept it close early, stalked within four or five of the lead, and made a long and comfortable move to make it to the lead down the stretch. Deep closers may not have as good a chance in this race if the track is soft and crazy early fractions don’t materialize, which means a stalking horse like Fourty Niners Son has a good chance to be in the mix late. We like Fourty Niners Son to hit the board, but ultimately come up short.

OUR PICKS

We’re willing to toss Azamour’s September effort in the Irish Champion Stakes (5th), simply because his adaptability was on display in his previous two against stiff competition. His June race was a stalking trip, July was a deep closing rush - both featured winner’s circle photos and big blankets of flowers in the end. Shakespeare may not have a fantastically long history of spectacular victories against top competition, but he’s undefeated, and his Turf Classic win showed he’s no fluke. And for fun we’ll toss Fourty Niners Son in for good measure. We never did like the taste of chalk. We’ll go with:
1) Azamour
2) Shakespeare
3) Fourty Niners Son
And the value we’re looking for on win plays is Azamour at or above 4-1, Shakespeare above 4-1, and Fourty Niners Son on a lark in double-digits.

Breeders Cup Homepage [NTRA]
Daily Racing Form
Breeders Cup Pre-Entries [Boston Globe]
Previously: Christmas + Super Bowl + Horses = Breeders’ Cup [Oddjack]
Previously: Breeders’ Cup: Let The Kids Take A Lap (Juvenile Fillies and Juvenile) [Oddjack]
Previously: Breeders’ Cup: Girls on the Grass and Speed, Speed, Speed (F&M Turf and Sprint) [Oddjack]
Previously: Breeders’ Cup: The Mile and Distaff Championships [Oddjack]
2005 Breeders’ Cup Archive [Oddjack]
Horse Racing Archive [Oddjack]